Bugger. Lost my comment. Too big to retype so here's the bullet points:
- good coverage for Move
- Sony have said Move will be more of a grower (if it takes off at all) and I agree and it chimes with this coverage and your view
- Sony are exploiting Move to cover both existing and upcoming core titles as well as casual Move titles, so they have good chance of existing owner sales and would probably be okay if Move only appealed to existing owners
- MS currently are really pushing Kinect for new owners, so I think they need to hope it doesn't just end up being for existing owners as at launch it offers almost nothing for them except for a new interface experience.
- Luckily for MS in US and UK they have a fair number of very loyal fans who I'm sure will buy Kinect just for the interface and to support MS
- Still, overall Move looks like the less risky product to me. Familiar thanks to its similarity to the Wii. Easier to develop a title for Move/Wii vs Kinect (due to different input approaches). More able (thus far on the evidence) to fully support core titles and augment core titles as well as of course support new Move specific titles. Kinect is riskier I think - brave move by MS it should be noted - as it is quite different, doesn't seem yet to offer much in the way of augmented support or full support for existing titles/genres and would I believe require more effort to have Wii type titles ported to it.