If Kinect doesn't push alot of hardware for X360 in Nov-Dec then there isn't anything to really push X360 in a huge way over the last couple of months. Halo / Call of Duty / Fable / Fallout are all sequels with one to several previous entries on X360. Medal of Honor and some others will push hardware, but there was unique stuff last year too. There will be some ongoing help from the Slim / new models but it just doesn't look like a dramatically better Christmas season given than X360 hardware sales declined last year.I still wouldn't be that surprised if it was down - if you look at PS3 last year weekly sales only doubled from the initial week of the PS3 Slim Price cut to the best week of the year. X360 had a temporary price cut, not a permanent one - I don't know that you can expect as big a lift from Slim week one to peak holiday week. The people shopping for Christmas don't give a damn about models just whether they have to buy a X360, Wii, PS3, DS, PSP or whatever, so the lack of a price cut / sequels would normally indicate flat to down Christmas for a system as old as the X360 even with the Slim. With Kinect and the new games for it, in addition to the sequels, and Slim it probably will be up a small amount. If Kinect flops, it will be down though. These Slim line models never seem to accompany any real software lifts either if you look at the totals when they launch - even though the overall base goes up, I don't know that they really sell to new users. I would never choose to not buy / buy a system based on its size - if you want the thing you can make room. In terms of interest from new users, even with Kinect and Move all three consoles are going to be in decline this Christmas, even though X360 will be up a bit and Wii / PS3 only down a bit.

One of the reasons I have PS3 peaking in Sept 2009 - August 2010 is September 2010.

PS3 is going to be down over a million units against 2009 in September I'd say:

It sold 1.7m units in Sept 2009. Right now, even assuming some software lifts its trending for 600-700k in Sept 2010. October will likely be down again by several hundred thousand to half a million. Also, PS3 sold 300k week for each week of November 2009.  That probably won't happen until the second or third week of November. Down November usually means down December. So we should be done with worldwide PS3 increases for a while. Wii will be down in Oct-Dec as well. X360 probably up a bit (its mostly on hw changes and Kinect though - most of the big core games for X360 are sequels and won't push huge hw).

If you notice, PS3 is actually below 2008 levels heading into September (although probably flat next week), even though it is cheaper. Historically, price drops have less and less impact over time which is why PS3 probably hit its magic price point at $300, and may not top Sept 2009 - Aug 2010 even at $250 in 2011 (or even $200?).

Personally, I'm expecting Wii / PS3 price cuts in Spring 2011. Putting a price cut and Zelda in the same quarter in the middle part of 2011 would probably work pretty well, Wii seems to slow in April - Aug, so Zelda could push Wii for Apr and the price cut would keep pushing Wii for six months or so until the annual fall rush of titles arrives in Sept.

Sadly, no I can't see that happening even with Kirby in October. Especially if it's not even launching in PAL until next year. We're probably going to be seeing some truly massive YOY hemorrhaging in October and November. Probably over 2 million units. It's too hard to put a number on December but I simply CAN NOT see a scenario where it's up YOY in that month. I would imagine at least a million, possibly more. Don't get me wrong I hope it does great. I'm really looking forward to the Wii's upcoming line up and it will still be the #1 selling home console this holiday but last year was simply too huge to match.

Wow the 360 is holding up so much better then I thought it would.

Big Halo 3 increase in Others for some odd reason

Wow the 360 is holding up so much better then I thought it would.

Big Halo 3 increase in Others for some odd reason

Wow the 360 is holding up so much better then I thought it would.

Big Halo 3 increase in Others for some odd reason

Nice, Halo 3 will reach 12.5 by end of this gen minimum!

It just had a price cut. It is available here for ~20 USD incl tax. (converted)