If you think about it logically it is quite possible.

Soon as Halo Reach is gone Microsoft will start the advertising campaign on Kinect. They will treat it like a new console launch. So it really depends on how that goes.

It will be a tough thing to do. Either way i expect at least 1m-2m sales worldwide first week.

It's interesting to see how typical casual games only seem to sell well bundled on the 360.

Howver my input on the casual 360 audience, is that it's a more mature casual audience then the PS2 and Wii have. A lo of people pick up Halo or Call of Duty simply because it's "the" big shooter, and it's fun to play. Same reason why people will pick up Gran turismo on the PS3, and the same reason why Grand Theft Auto sells so well. In fact anything above 10 million sales much be "casual" in some sence in my opinion. There aren't enough hardcore gamers to ALL like the same product. Wii just has a different type of casual gamer, one that plays New Super Mario Bros, Wii Fit, and Mario Kart. All great games, but I bet you a lot of people pick it up simply because it's Mario, or "the" Wii branded fitness game.

For the same reason a person like my sister would consider Wii Fit, a 30 year old bald guy will pick up Halo. It's just Wii Fit largely cators to a crowd of people who don't normally play games, where most Halo gamers at least play games a bit normally.

im sorry but pre orders are already at 100,000 so those of you saying no please explain how you think it will not make 1 million let alone 500,000 copies pre ordered. imo this will easily top 1 million sorry its just fact. the sales will continue to grow each week and then when it comes out don't be surprised if it has over 1 million copies sold. 

You do realize that Kinect pre-orders for the week of Aug. 28th dropped by almost 20K from the previous week to just ~ 7.7K, right?  As someone stated previously, it would have to jump to 40K a week and sustain that just to reach 500K.  That is not going to happen.  I'm going with others and saying it may reach 250K.

It won't even reach 300k.

Also games like Halo: Reach and Modern Warfare 2, which get close to 2 million pre-orders, they had 500k pre-orders 10 weeks to launch. Kinect is only at 1/5th that, so why should people expect any more then 400k Americas Pre-orders (or 1/th of 2 million)?