For that to happen Ps3 would have to be 3rd in terms of best selling systems ever....that won't ever happen

you maybe right, but only time will tell.

Vitality Sensor could be positively tremendous in Japan, given that old people outnumber all other demographics. Tap that market as they did with Brain Age on DS, and you're gonna see some fireworks.

I think myself that the Wii will end very close to the Game Boy, possibly being just above it (~120m). However, I think the 3rd party sabotage will stop it from surpassing the PS2.

If Nintendo keeps selling the current Wii:

1 - DS

2- PS2

3- Wii

4- Gameboy

If Nintendo launches a redesign:

1- DS

2- Wii

3- PS2

4- Gameboy

I'd agree with that, though it might not happen by the end of 2012.

It's gauranteed to pass the PS1, even with it's poor sales currently
(relatively speaking).

If it's going to pass the Gameboy i'd say it needs a redesign.

PS2 and DS are untouchable.

I see it falling just short of the GB. It'll probably reach 100 million right at the end of 2011 or early 2012. Most likely it'll reach the $99 price point not to long after that but at that point 1st party effort will most likely be firmly focused on 3DS and the Wii's successor which will probably see a late 2011 to mid 2012 release. Assuming it's successor is a reasonable price and backward compatible Wii sales will likely start to flag rather quickly. I'd say 110-115 million.

The PSP that failure is #8, so funny.

Wii will probably beat DS & PS2 in the USA. Could see it nearly matching PS2 ( /- 10% ltd) in Western Europe. But it will be well behind PS2 throughout the rest of the world. DS is going to top 60m in Nintendo's Other region, maybe even 70m, so Wii probably won't match that. I actually think Wii could have a bigger base than PS2 in developed video game markets - Western Europe, Canada, USA, Australia, Japan - but it won't match PS2 worldwide.

In developed markets (Western Europe, Canada, USA, Japan, Australia) we have:

                                              DS           Wii          PS2

W.Europe & Australia    35m        22.5m    40.6m

Japan                                  31m       10.6m     23.1m                    

USA Canada                 46.2m      32.8m     49.6m

Developed Total            114m       65.9m      113.3m

Now for some math.

Wii launched in 2006. PS2 launched in 2000. DS launched in 2004/2005. Using these values for per year basis for the three developed regions (DS = 5.5 / 6 / 6, PS2 = 9.75 / 10.5 / 9.75, Wii = 3.75 / 3.75 / 3.75) we can see how the systems are doing in the regions to date.

Developed Sales / Year       DS            Wii         PS2

W. Europe & Australia      6.4m         6.0m      4.2m

Japan                                     5.2m         2.8m      2.2m

USA Canada                     7.7m          8.7m      5.1m

Developed Total                19.3m        17.5m    11.5m

Obviously the DS and especially Wii rates will erode a bit with time as sales fall but Wii still has more than a 50% per year margin on PS2 in the USA Canada and is even beating DS here rather easily.If you look at the math, Wii is trending ahead of DS in Western regions, particularly in North America. Since Wii is a console, the attach rates are higher than DS as well. That means Wii is going to remain attractive to Western developers for a seriously long time.

The 81m Western DS base is only buying about one game per year right now, but the 55m Western Wii base is still buying 2-2.5 games per year. In the West, the Wii base may still be buying 1.2-1.5 games per year in the West with 80m units sold (Wii should reach 80m in developed western markets by the end of 2012) - so I'd expect Western developers to keep pushing the system fairly hard for at least two more years.

Lifetime, I think we end up with shipments at something like this:

             Americas /   Japan   / EMEAA   /   Total

DS         65m             35m         70m**         170m

PS2        56m            24m          75m*           155m           

Wii        63m             16m          50m*           129m

GB        44.1m         32.5m       42.2m          119m

PS1       40.8m         21.6m       40.1m          102.5m

* Probably about 40-45m for both in Western Europe - but PS2 is available in 99 countries last time I looked.

** 53m shipped as of June 2010 - still selling 100k / week in normal weeks.

Essentially, we'll end up with DS / GB in a league of their own in Japan (30m ), Wii / DS / PS2 as the all-stars of the Americas (50m ), with DS / PS2 way out in front in EMEAA.

Software wise, I think DS limps to over 1b games shipped lifetime while Wii probably gets much higher even with a lower base as Wii owners buy more games than DS owners do, particularly in the West where the systems will see similar sales long term. So SW sales over the long haul should end up at something like this for machines currently available:

PS2 >>> Wii >> DS and PS1 roughly the same >>> X360 or PS3 >> NES and GB and so on.