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Forums - Sales - VGC user predictions

Antabus on 29 August 2010

I've seen Pachter take a lot of crap about his failed predictions from VGC users. But how good predictions have some of you been making? Are you better or worse than Pachter? ;)

Using this thread as some source and picking only the worst predictions: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=6477&page=1

My absolute favourite: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=168610

Another great prediction: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=169799

Did not read all of that thread, but those 2 caught my eye. This is for you:

 

There were some pretty nice predictions too. I think this one might be the closest:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=168548

That is a pretty nice prediction there.



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09tarheel on 29 August 2010

I'm not going to post the link, because I don't want it to come across as picking on a user, but this one seemed pretty off base to me.

"

Well i have 2 predictions:
January 1st 2012(i predict the end of the gen as Wii2/PS4/Xbox3 will release in November 2011.(rough %'s).
PS3:70million-40%
Wii:65million-38%
X360:25million-22%

End of gen(when ALL consoles stop selling):
PS3:80million-45%
Wii:65million-35%
X360:25million-20%
"
With 2 years to go, the Wii is already 8.5 million ahead and the 360 is 17.5 million ahead of that prediction. The PS3 at 70 million in 2 years may be pretty close, although I'd expect more in the 62-67 million range at this point. Obviously those market share percentages won't be anywhere near that prediction in 2012.
It seemed like that thread was over zealous Wii and PS3 fans, with Wii fans coming up with ridiculously large market share %s, and PS3 fans thinking it would dominate the 360 and overtake the Wii in a couple of years.


Antabus on 29 August 2010

The funny thing is that is one of the better predictions on that thread. If you look at the market shares and not the sales numbers.

Except that he/she seemed to think that the generation ends this christmas.



Seece on 29 August 2010
Machina said:

Awh, I failed pretty badly:

Wii - 43%
PS3 - 40%
360 - 17%

*hangs head in shame*

Cos you were a PS3 fanboy back in the day and I had to shake it out of you :P



 

Antabus on 29 August 2010
Machina said:

Awh, I failed pretty badly:

Wii - 43%
PS3 - 40%
360 - 17%

*hangs head in shame*

Compared to lot of other people, that is not a bad prediction. ;P



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darthdevidem01 on 29 August 2010

So many old users in that thread have left



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

Alby_da_Wolf on 29 August 2010
Machina said:
Antabus said:
Machina said:

Awh, I failed pretty badly:

Wii - 43%
PS3 - 40%
360 - 17%

*hangs head in shame*

Compared to lot of other people, that is not a bad prediction. ;P

Well my Wii % will end up being pretty close, but the other two are waaaaaaaaay off.

MS and Sony arrived to answer each other's moves with such regularity that they could end within 5% difference, whichever wins (actually whichever wins the 2nd place  )



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!   


yo_john117 on 29 August 2010

I love reading older failed predictions.  But to be fair i'm pretty sure the majority of us have made some pretty fail predictions.



daveJ on 29 August 2010

I nominate that guy [who was he again] that had in his sig, the wii selling over 500 million, plus many other  equally extreme predictions.

Im still sticking with my prediction that the wii wont sell the most consoles when this gen is over.

Also Im sticking with my prediction that the wii wont reach 50% market share like many people on this forum predicted



All bow to me the VGChartz current reigning 3DS prediction champion 

 Bet with tbone51: Pokeon X & pokemon Y will not sell more than 8 million in 2013

 jarrod said:The Xbox360 or ps3 will not sell more than 75million units

July 2009 daveJ said: True the wii has a large lead now but by 2017 the most likely result will be 1. ps3 2. xbox360 3. wii <-- wii's successor launched in 2011 effectively killing sales of the wii

 2009 daveJ said: The wii will not break the 50% marketshare barrier it will go below the 40% marketshare barrier though in the future. VGChartz members: Impossible, youre an idiot that knows nothing about sales

haxxiy on 29 August 2010

Wow. Wii fans were so confident back there. And virtually no one believed on the X360.

Kudos to FinalEvangelion, ismael and some other guys for the reasonable spot-on predictions, lol @ most of others.