To get things back on topic, if by "the end of this gen" you mean in the standard a little over 4 years from now (since this gen has officially been in existence for a little less than a year), then I predict:
Wii: 70%
PS3: 15%
360: 15%
In other words, about how the PS2-Xbox-Cube divide was last-gen. The Wii will continue to sell strongly through all territories and become the de-facto home of most major franchises, as well as a host of new ones. The 360 will have most of its userbase in North America, with a minor showing in EU/AU and irrelevance in Japan. The PS3 will sell maybe 20 million through its lifetime, with most of its strength in Japan and certain EU territories; like the Nintendo of last gen, it will eventually come to rely solely on first- and second-party exclusives as third parties abandon it for the Wii and DS/DS2 in droves.
"'Casual games' are something the 'Game Industry' invented to explain away the Wii success instead of actually listening or looking at what Nintendo did. There is no 'casual strategy' from Nintendo. 'Accessible strategy', yes, but ‘casual gamers’ is just the 'Game Industry''s polite way of saying what they feel: 'retarded gamers'."
-Sean Malstrom
