My prediction for December Weekly Sales/LTD sales:

 

Going by hardware numbers on this site from the last 3 weeks these are how much each console has sold. (Nov 17, Nov 24, Dec 1)

 

Last 3 weeks of sales:

Wii: 433,413 - 640,904 - 644,709

360: 241,430 - 391,395 - 361,108

PS3: 229,085 - 337,833 - 351,345

Saying that the first week shown above is the starting number used for this prediction the sale increases and decreases are as below: (Nov 17, Nov 24, Dec 1)


Sales Percentages for last 3 weeks:

Wii: starting - (+)32% - (+)1%

360: starting - (+)38% - (-)8%

PS3: starting - (+)32% - (+)4%



So after looking at that data above, I took the increases and decreases and put them together then divided them all by 10% and subtracted that from the totals to come up with my weekly sales for the rest of the year for each console minus the week of Christmas and the week after which have sharp decrease in sales. The Wii, even though logically it could, will boost weekly numbers extremely high will hit its sales bar. This will be explained in the next paragraph.

I broke down the weekly sales till the week of Christmas. The Wii being under production and shipment constraints won’t pass a weekly max of 800,000 units for two weeks then Nintendo will ship everything they can maxing sales for the console for that week at 1,000,000 units.

Dec ^1st:

Wii: 800,000 units

360: 422,495 units

PS3: 439,532 units

 

 

Dec ^8th:

Wii: 800,000 units

360: 494,318 units

PS3: 549,854 units

 

 

Dec ^15th:

Wii: 1,000,000 units

360: 578,351 units

PS3: 687,867 units

 

 

The week of Dec ^22nd will be much different. Sales for all consoles will diminish vastly.

Dec ^22nd:

Wii: 300,000 units

360: 65,000 units

PS3: 19,000 units

 

Dec 29th:

Wii: 300,000 units

360: 75,000 units

PS3: 21,000 units

 

 

The following are the totals for my December predictions as wells as the Life to Date totals including my totals.

 

 

December totals:

Wii: 3,844,709 units

360: 1,996,272 units

PS3: 2,068,598 units

 

Life to Date totals:

Wii: 18,904,709 units

360: 16,136,272 units

PS3: 8,798,598 units

 

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I tried to keep my numbers as low as possible but from what it seems I believe that these numbers are 100% plausible and could actually happen if sales increase each week like I have predicted above and if sales numbers for a week increase higher then I have, which is very plausible, one or two weeks then my numbers will be off but actually off. I was originally predicting maybe 7.7 million for the PS3, 15 million for the 360 and 17.3 for the Wii. Now that I didnt my math up there I think all of our predictions are low.

 

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I'm actually going to track my December sales to see how off I really am.

 

Note: re-adjusted to VGChartz's updated numbers.

 

So:

 

Dec 1st sales:

Wii: 3,844,709 - 655,527 = 3,189,182 sales left

360: 1,996,272 - 365,265 = 1,631,007 sales left

PS3: 2,068,598 - 368,482 = 1,700,116 sales left

 

Dec 8th sales:

Wii: 3,189,182 - 691,329 = 2,497,853 sales left

360: 1,631,007 - 414,159 = 1,216,848 sales left

PS3: 1,700,116 - 417,534 = 1,282,582 sales left

Dec 15th sales:

Wii: 2,497,853 - 696,522 = 1,801,331 sales left

360: 1,216,848 - 512,727 = 704,121 sales left

PS3: 1,282,582 - 502,820 = 779,762 sales left

Dec 22nd:

Wii: 1,801,331 - 1,457,872 = 343,459 sales left

360: 704,121 - 594,520 = 109,601 sales left

PS3: 779,762 - 619,388 = 160,374 sales left

 

The week of Dec 23rd will be much different. Sales for all consoles will diminish vastly. There won’t be a single Wii sold this week due to the Wii being completely sold out and Nintendo preparing a replenishing shipment of 100,000 for the next week.



Dec 23rd:

Wii: 0 units

360: 65,000 units

PS3: 19,000 units



The week of Dec 30 won’t have any increases or decreases but the Wii will sell out again due to limited supplies.



Dec 30:

Wii: 100,000 units

360: 75,000 units

PS3: 21,000 units


i'm assuming these are worldwide numbers even though you never specify...

This part doesn't make any sense.

johnsobas said: The week of Dec 23rd will be much different. Sales for all consoles will diminish vastly. There won’t be a single Wii sold this week due to the Wii being completely sold out and Nintendo preparing a replenishing shipment of 100,000 for the next week. Dec 23rd: Wii: 0 units 360: 65,000 units PS3: 19,000 units The week of Dec 30 won’t have any increases or decreases but the Wii will sell out again due to limited supplies. Dec 30: Wii: 100,000 units 360: 75,000 units PS3: 21,000 units i'm assuming these are worldwide numbers even though you never specify... This part doesn't make any sense.

 no thoseare the week of Dec 30 ie Dec 30, Dec 31, Jan 1, Jan 2 , Jan 3, Jan 4, Jan 5. The LTD numbers are below that.

Wow, what happend with that post, over and over again...lol.

I agree with you for the most part. The exception is the Wii selling 100,000 units after Christmas. I think it will be somewhere between 125,000 to 150,000.

Nighteyes_1981 said: Wow, what happend with that post, over and over again...lol. I agree with you for the most part. The exception is the Wii selling 100,000 units after Christmas. I think it will be somewhere between 125,000 to 150,000.

 well I figure Nintendo wont have much produced and would be working on a massive restocking sometime mid-january. The 100,000 would jsut be shipped off to give customers that couldnt get consoles during the holidays an insanely slim chance of buying a Wii till they ship out their next massive shipment. 

Well I have no idea what was with the double paste job.. thats weird.. 

All of those are extremely (extremely) low. So wii is gonna sell 0 consoles worldwide on week starting the 23rd? That's basically the biggest week of the year in Japan. 360 sold 71k, Wii sold 82k, and PS3 sold 63k in that week last year in NA alone.

Wii is not supply constrained in Japan and many parts of Europe/others even if they did decide not to ship any systems. However, i really doubt they wouldn't ship any.

johnsobas said: All of those are extremely (extremely) low. So wii is gonna sell 0 consoles worldwide on week starting the 23rd? That's basically the biggest week of the year in Japan. 360 sold 71k, Wii sold 82k, and PS3 sold 63k in that week last year in NA alone. Wii is not supply constrained in Japan and many parts of Europe/others even if they did decide not to ship any systems. However, i really doubt they wouldn't ship any.

 well lets jsut see as most people would say "your PS3 prediction is crazzy high"

ssj12 said: PS3:       229,085 - 337,833 - 3My prediction for December Weekly Sales/LTD sales:

 I'm nitpicking errors, I'm sorry.

 

I agree with your assesment of post Christmas sales.  I just believe they'll be able to have more units available.

ssj12 said: johnsobas said: All of those are extremely (extremely) low. So wii is gonna sell 0 consoles worldwide on week starting the 23rd? That's basically the biggest week of the year in Japan. 360 sold 71k, Wii sold 82k, and PS3 sold 63k in that week last year in NA alone. Wii is not supply constrained in Japan and many parts of Europe/others even if they did decide not to ship any systems. However, i really doubt they wouldn't ship any.  well lets jsut see as most people would say "your PS3 prediction is crazzy high"

 

The LTDs are OK, the PS3 is a little high but it's not unbelievable or anything.  You need to increase the numbers of the last 2 week and decrease the numbers of the first 3 weeks a little bit.  Wii will probably sell 150-200k in the week starting the 23rd in Japan alone (PS3 probably 100-150k).  Even the GC managed numbers like 100-150k during those weeks in Japan.

johnsobas said: ssj12 said: johnsobas said: All of those are extremely (extremely) low. So wii is gonna sell 0 consoles worldwide on week starting the 23rd? That's basically the biggest week of the year in Japan. 360 sold 71k, Wii sold 82k, and PS3 sold 63k in that week last year in NA alone. Wii is not supply constrained in Japan and many parts of Europe/others even if they did decide not to ship any systems. However, i really doubt they wouldn't ship any.  well lets jsut see as most people would say "your PS3 prediction is crazzy high"   The LTDs are OK, the PS3 is a little high but it's not unbelievable or anything.  You need to increase the numbers of the last 2 week and decrease the numbers of the first 3 weeks a little bit.  Wii will probably sell 150-200k in the week starting the 23rd in Japan alone (PS3 probably 100-150k).  Even the GC managed numbers like 100-150k during those weeks in Japan.

 well I explained how i came up with my numbers and i did say I shaved 10% off the top of each increase and I'd say anything higher would make things to low if not careful.