My prediction for December Weekly Sales/LTD sales:
Going by hardware numbers on this site from the last 3 weeks these are how much each console has sold. (Nov 17, Nov 24, Dec 1)
Last 3 weeks of sales:
Wii: 433,413 - 640,904 - 644,709
360: 241,430 - 391,395 - 361,108
PS3: 229,085 - 337,833 - 351,345
Saying that the first week shown above is the starting number used for this prediction the sale increases and decreases are as below: (Nov 17, Nov 24, Dec 1)
Sales Percentages for last 3 weeks:
Wii: starting - (+)32% - (+)1%
360: starting - (+)38% - (-)8%
PS3: starting - (+)32% - (+)4%
So after looking at that data above, I took the increases and decreases and put them together then divided them all by 10% and subtracted that from the totals to come up with my weekly sales for the rest of the year for each console minus the week of Christmas and the week after which have sharp decrease in sales. The Wii, even though logically it could, will boost weekly numbers extremely high will hit its sales bar. This will be explained in the next paragraph.
I broke down the weekly sales till the week of Christmas. The Wii being under production and shipment constraints won’t pass a weekly max of 800,000 units for two weeks then Nintendo will ship everything they can maxing sales for the console for that week at 1,000,000 units.
Dec 1st:
Wii: 800,000 units
360: 422,495 units
PS3: 439,532 units
Dec 8th:
Wii: 800,000 units
360: 494,318 units
PS3: 549,854 units
Dec 15th:
Wii: 1,000,000 units
360: 578,351 units
PS3: 687,867 units
The week of Dec 22nd will be much different. Sales for all consoles will diminish vastly.
Dec 22nd:
Wii: 300,000 units
360: 65,000 units
PS3: 19,000 units
Dec 29th:
Wii: 300,000 units
360: 75,000 units
PS3: 21,000 units
The following are the totals for my December predictions as wells as the Life to Date totals including my totals.
December totals:
Wii: 3,844,709 units
360: 1,996,272 units
PS3: 2,068,598 units
Life to Date totals:
Wii: 18,904,709 units
360: 16,136,272 units
PS3: 8,798,598 units
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I tried to keep my numbers as low as possible but from what it seems I believe that these numbers are 100% plausible and could actually happen if sales increase each week like I have predicted above and if sales numbers for a week increase higher then I have, which is very plausible, one or two weeks then my numbers will be off but actually off. I was originally predicting maybe 7.7 million for the PS3, 15 million for the 360 and 17.3 for the Wii. Now that I didnt my math up there I think all of our predictions are low.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I'm actually going to track my December sales to see how off I really am.
Note: re-adjusted to VGChartz's updated numbers.
So:
Dec 1st sales:
Wii: 3,844,709 - 655,527 = 3,189,182 sales left
360: 1,996,272 - 365,265 = 1,631,007 sales left
PS3: 2,068,598 - 368,482 = 1,700,116 sales left
Dec 8th sales:
Wii: 3,189,182 - 691,329 = 2,497,853 sales left
360: 1,631,007 - 414,159 = 1,216,848 sales left
PS3: 1,700,116 - 417,534 = 1,282,582 sales left
Dec 15th sales:
Wii: 2,497,853 - 696,522 = 1,801,331 sales left
360: 1,216,848 - 512,727 = 704,121 sales left
PS3: 1,282,582 - 502,820 = 779,762 sales left
Dec 22nd:
Wii: 1,801,331 - 1,457,872 = 343,459 sales left
360: 704,121 - 594,520 = 109,601 sales left
PS3: 779,762 - 619,388 = 160,374 sales left
