Xero said:
Anyway, as far as I see it, hardware sales will see a small boost, software sales will see a small decrease.
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I do wonder how many of the people who hacked there 360s, would have done so if they had know that they would have been banned from the XBOX Live service
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I agree with your sales prediction, and expect the effect to be very small in the end.
In just a few weeks there will be a firmware update that blocks this hack and people who use it may get banned. As soon as this happens, the interest in this "jailbreak" will instantly drop to almost zero, as from that point on you will only be able to play old games. A few people may still buy the device to play all the great exclusives released so far, but since old games do not have high sales numbers anyway and these people probably wouldn't have bought the games anyway, it will probably have hardly any effect on software sales.
About people modding their 360s: my experience is that most people who do this know very well that they will get banned. That was probably different in the early days of Xbox 360 modding, but with Microsoft banning modded 360s for several years now, people know what to expect. But the situation on the 360 is different: Your modded console will get banned, but firmware updates do not affect the possibility to play pirated games - so even if it gets banned you can still play every new game that gets released. So most owners of modded 360s simply have two or more 360s: One modded (and probably banned) one for playing pirated games offline, and one unmodded one for playing original games that they just can't live without playing online.