@mrstickball

my RESPECT for you has gone up SEVERAL notches..finally someone had the guts to put JH in his place

I mean what JH does can even be classified as flaming sometimes...yet his prediction threads end up wit 100 _ posts just because of 1 right prediction

I think we have a michael pachter here....

I also have a signature right in my thread saying plain out "John Lucas was WRONG". No ifs and or buts about it. I detailed wrong predictions right here in this topic alone.

I'm eating some black feathers but not the whole crow yet because my prediction is not finished. I don't like medium rare birds. I like crow served well done if I have to eat it.

The logic behind my theories has weight though even if my conclusions are faulty and that's what I was pointing out with mrstickball's reasonings that Wii Fit couldn't get a frenzy. You even said that in that thread that 'casuals' wouldn't line up for this title among other things but they did. The reasonings behind my prediction were good even if my conclusions were bad. Since mrstickball got so riled up in that rant I chose to point out some errors he had on the subject.

That 250,000+ represents 2 days. I'm waiting to see Japan's final calendar week total and then the full opening calendar week totals of Wii Fit in the Americas & Europe/PAL before conceding total defeat.

Just like I did with the Wii beats XBox 360 in Americas in summer/July prediction. I held out until September 23rd, the 1st day of Autumn. I always take it to the absolute limit before giving up.

Half of my prediction on Wii Fit is WRONG. We'll see if the other half redeems me.

John Lucas 

Bolded part: And we know that casuals lined up for this game why? Is there some report I'm missing here? People lined up for the game (as illustrated by your pictures and other news I have seen), but with what appears to be less than 300k available first week, that's hardly an indication of huge pent-up casual gamer demand. Plenty of games have shipped far more than that in a week and have seen crazy-long lines during the entire week. 300k proves nothing about the casual market.

Ultimately, I think the game will gain steam and do big numbers but as I pointed out in your original prediction post, the game is too expensive to launch to huge numbers, the Wii Board won't be produced in mass numbers that quickly, and this type of game doesn't launch to massive first week numbers. 

This is also a funny little quip about how much this game is in demand right now:

http://kotaku.com/gaming/japan/wii-fits-gray-market-shaping-up-330508.php

It's selling on auction sites for MSRP price, sometimes even less than MSRP. That really shows huge demand in my eyes. 

rocketpig, u keep saying 'the first week'

it's only been TWO DAYS, not the 'first week'

so 260k in TWO DAYS...not 300k in the first week...it remains to be seen how many more they ship/sell before the week is up

I doubt Nintendo was holding a huge backlog of stock for days 3-7 of the opening week. They probably shipped almost everything they had for launch. 

no they didnt ship everything,retailers didnt get to much because they didnt know if it would have been a hit

Do you have any evidence to support this whatsoever? I have a hard time believing that retailers ignored Nintendo's most-hyped game in Japan (a game they advertised everywhere in that country) and underordered stock for opening day.

If you can provide any evidence that supports your claim, I'll be more than happy to listen. But it doesn't make much sense for retailers to underorder Wii Fit during the beginning of the holiday rush. Even if they don't sell everything opening week, they would have ordered additional units to meet demand from now until January. It's a win-win situation for retailers to order a lot of this game and virtually no reason for them to hold off ordering and underestimate the game.

go John Lucas!! I belive in you! :P

Not to defend John Lucas but he never described the regions as to where Wii Fit would smash Halo 3 in his sig prediction. Meaning its only natural to assume that he stated in the one region mentioned, Japan. Which last I checked 250k over 60k.

Oh I'd make a good lawyer haha.

This can't be good for this website if new users or visitors see moderators calling members dumb for making predictions. Sure John Lucas' predictions are outlandish but he has always used restraint even though he is flamed on a regular basis.