| johnlucas said: I also have a signature right in my thread saying plain out "John Lucas was WRONG". No ifs and or buts about it. I detailed wrong predictions right here in this topic alone. I'm eating some black feathers but not the whole crow yet because my prediction is not finished. I don't like medium rare birds. I like crow served well done if I have to eat it. The logic behind my theories has weight though even if my conclusions are faulty and that's what I was pointing out with mrstickball's reasonings that Wii Fit couldn't get a frenzy. You even said that in that thread that 'casuals' wouldn't line up for this title among other things but they did. The reasonings behind my prediction were good even if my conclusions were bad. Since mrstickball got so riled up in that rant I chose to point out some errors he had on the subject. That 250,000+ represents 2 days. I'm waiting to see Japan's final calendar week total and then the full opening calendar week totals of Wii Fit in the Americas & Europe/PAL before conceding total defeat. Just like I did with the Wii beats XBox 360 in Americas in summer/July prediction. I held out until September 23rd, the 1st day of Autumn. I always take it to the absolute limit before giving up. Half of my prediction on Wii Fit is WRONG. We'll see if the other half redeems me. John Lucas |
Bolded part: And we know that casuals lined up for this game why? Is there some report I'm missing here? People lined up for the game (as illustrated by your pictures and other news I have seen), but with what appears to be less than 300k available first week, that's hardly an indication of huge pent-up casual gamer demand. Plenty of games have shipped far more than that in a week and have seen crazy-long lines during the entire week. 300k proves nothing about the casual market.
Ultimately, I think the game will gain steam and do big numbers but as I pointed out in your original prediction post, the game is too expensive to launch to huge numbers, the Wii Board won't be produced in mass numbers that quickly, and this type of game doesn't launch to massive first week numbers.
This is also a funny little quip about how much this game is in demand right now:
http://kotaku.com/gaming/japan/wii-fits-gray-market-shaping-up-330508.php
It's selling on auction sites for MSRP price, sometimes even less than MSRP. That really shows huge demand in my eyes.
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