kber81 said: damkira said: Well.. I think you'll find that Wii Fit more than DOUBLED Halo 3's Japanese opening week of 62,415. John Lucas was right! If the 254k figures are correct, then Wii Fit sold QUADRUPLE that of Halo 3. I think it is you who will be eating crow. Are you for real? I hope it's a sarcasm... It's difficult for me to understand why people are still talking about this. I think John just needs attention. Prediction like 240 million, 60 million, MGS4 cancellation or 20 million minimum etc. are nothing more than bullshit. How many times he has to fail to lose all credibility (if we can talk about credibility in this case). Probably he just pulls this predictions out of his ass and has fun when silly fanboys get excited. Fact he is popular here shows how many unreasonable users we have. User of the Year... the guy who defines VGC. It's a joke.

someone here is jelous and it aint me

 

kber81 said: damkira said: You mean in his signature where it says Wii Fit will outsell Halo 3 in Japan alone? It did. I don't see why you're even making an issue of this. ... I want few minutes I've spent on you back.

 You'd make a lousy lawyer. ;)

Tricksy, tricksy wording. 

Arcturus said: johnlucas said: nordlead said: you people can't hang john lucas yet. It released the 1st, the sales data is only for the 1st. He still has 6 days left for 1 week to actually pass. He did state specifically that it was 1 real week, not 1 sales week. so it only needs to sell 3.5 million in 6 days That's right. Besides the prediction in full was about Wii Fit worldwide all 1st weeks combined. I simply specified Japan accounting for the staggered launch. Even if Japan fails on me the prediction is still on until Wii Fit releases in all territories. I'll only be eating a couple of black feathers instead of the whole bird. Prediction is still on. John Lucas I'm a bit confused as to what your actual prediction is now. In the original thread you say: "Wii Fit in Japan *alone* will TRUMP the godsmacking sales of Halo 3 on its opening week." and in your sig you say: "Wii Fit will trump the opening week sales of Halo 3 in Japan alone much less counting all territories combined." Now you're saying that the prediction is for worldwide 1st week sales in all territories combined, and not Japan alone? Which is it? Are you predicting Wii Fit will sell more than 3.7M in one week in Japan alone or in all territories combined?

Read the link I put right beside that sig entry. That's why I said see the following thread for details. You can only write so much in a sig.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=7961

Japan may fail & I'll have to own up to that. But the source prediction was really about all territories combined. Staggered launch.

I DID say Japan alone as a specification. Should this fail my prediction will only be half wrong. We still will have to see how it sells in the opening week in the other territories.

I won't update my sig until the week is over anyway. Not until Dec. 8th.

John Lucas

P.S.: Thanks for defending me damkira. But I may end up wrong on my Japan prediction. I wasn't comparing Japan opening week of Halo 3 to Japan opening week of Wii Fit. That was a no brainer. I was comparing Wii Fit Japan opening week to Halo 3 worldwide opening week. But regardless of that specification being wrong the larger overall prediction will be right. If Wii Fit sold well over 200,000 in one day in Japan, after next week's Japan tally is counted up and Wii Fit launches in all territories next year it's most likely going to add up to beating Halo 3's worldwide record. If the launch wasn't staggered I would have never said Japan only. I originally wanted to say Wii Fit worldwide vs. Halo 3 worldwide. So I just made a specification to account for this. Only if the combined opening week totals don't add up will I be completely wrong on this one.

kirby007 said: someone here is jelous and it aint me

Fact you are serious disturbs me... anyway the point is I enjoy this site and I find it pro. We have few really good posters here (The Source, mrstickball, naznatips, ckmlb etc.) who really adds something to the figures...  Shit, I value every single news poster higher than John's contribution which is none for me.

kber81 said: kirby007 said: someone here is jelous and it aint me Fact you are serious disturbs me... anyway the point is I enjoy this site and I find it pro. We have few really good posters here (The Source, mrstickball, naznatips, ckmlb etc.) who really adds something to the figures...  Shit, I value every single news poster higher than John's contribution which is none for me.

... well maybe MAYBE because his predictions don't look good for ps3?

kirby007 said: ... well maybe MAYBE because his predictions don't look good for ps3?

 We have worst prediciton for PS3 here. Check Rol's out. PS3 stands on it's own I have no worry about it at all.

kirby007 said: kber81 said: kirby007 said: someone here is jelous and it aint me Fact you are serious disturbs me... anyway the point is I enjoy this site and I find it pro. We have few really good posters here (The Source, mrstickball, naznatips, ckmlb etc.) who really adds something to the figures...  Shit, I value every single news poster higher than John's contribution which is none for me. ... well maybe MAYBE because his predictions don't look good for ps3?

 More likely because they are overly critical of anything not Nintendo for no good reason. He over sells the Wii, and downplays the competition far more than he should. John Lucas is just as bad a fanboy as Kber81 is. You just happen to like the console John is backing. 

hohohoho @ both
guys ... pfft* lol*
ok serious now

ahum hateful...
LOLZ

John, I'm not buying it.

We had a huge post about how Wii Fit in Japan, alone, would trump Halo 3 worldwide sales.

You then go on to say that after adding all of the other territories, it's even more secure.

Here we are, and in 2 days (with 5 left), Wii Fit has *only* sold 250,000 units.

We have 5 days left, but you sir, are very, very dumb. You make 1-2 good predictions about the fact the Wii will suprise everyone, and then you are hailed as a Nintendo God.

However, that doesn't mean I, or others, buy into your stupid predictions. You really, really, really, really were stupid on this one. Wii Fit, is at 5% of your opening week prediction. Do you really understand how far off you are? This isn't some "minor error" on a prediction. This is a gaping hole in your rampant insane predictions - 20m Wii sales by 08, 60m by the end of 08, 240m end-of life. You have had a few great predictions, and I'm glad, as everyone, to admit that. But it doesn't give the right for people that actually contribute to the Prediction League to not challenge your stupid posts.

I called you out on Wii Fit, when you started the thread, and I'm calling you out again.

http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=50&id=7961

Post #51 - You state that the Wii will have a rapid Japanese increase in hardware sales, so it'll wind up making your prediction (after I called you out on LTD Wii sales in Japan being nowhere near enough to have a solid attach ratio).

You were wrong about that too. Wii sales didn't increase from October the 4th up till Wii Fit. There were a few very minor spikes, but absolutely no major increase you predicted.

You also said that Wii Fit would...(from page 2, 10/0407, 13:49) you said

Although no one would ever aruge that Wii Fit will have poor legs, you were way off here too. Wii Fit did marginally better than Wii Play and Wii Sports....Not a trend breaker. Earlier in the thread, we discussed the fact that Nintendo would have production issues, and you said Nintendo was "holding back". Appearently they haven't.....Because there are no magical Wii Fit boxes in Japan that are unsold.

And about attach ratios, at (10/04/07, 15:26), Page #2 of your Wii Fit prediction thread, you justify the insane Wii Fit attach ratio by stating Zelda: TP had an attach ratio of 75%. So we're not talking world here, we're justifying high Japanese sales.


Ironically, Leo-J's 120k first day prediction was near-flawless.

Okay, I'm done. This was a huge anti-JL rant, and I don't mean to step on his toes, but come on - when you make an insane prediction, and are insanely off-base, you should get slammed. There's a reason that the most outlandish prediction I've made was Halo 3 at 13.5m by the end of it's run. It's also why VERY FEW people make arguments about insane numbers like you. It's always neat when you hit stuff like that, but you're like a baseball player with a 0.150 hitting average. Sure, when you hit it, it's a home run. But I see your strikeouts being very, very tiring.

^ i think you said halo 3 will do 15mil