at first i didn't think you where serious, but the lack of first and second party studios is one reason(and i have plenty others)i don't own a 360 now. without reliable dev. teams making hardcore games i don't see how they can keep the hardcore gamer, and 3rd party exclosives aren't guaranteed next gen so it begs the question what will MS do? they will have the IP's, but will they have hardcore IP's. relying on the casual market next gen maybe a big mistake for the big 3 cause the casual market isn't garenteed next gen so they will haft to appeal to the hardcore gamer more to secure them in there ranks.

on the other hand when 360 started having masive failure rates i thought it was over for them then, but look at where they are! it's hard to gage the 360 fan base, so counting MS out this gen or the next is not a wise move.

i personaly think the big 3 see the hardcore market as the most important and the onlyone they can rely on, but your question is better gaged to MS and Sony  eventhough it doesn't seem as if Sony give a flying hoot about Move! i beleive Move is important to them(as we know Kinect is for MS), but is it something they trust and beleive will be usefull next gen, or thats it's a hit or miss. i think thats the real question?

i do think that Sony does see Move as very important, the reason being Sony is treating Move as another platform for game development for the PS3. An for Developer's to use as a way to make unique games that work much better than standard Game pads.

the Fact that already RTS games benefit on Game consoles from the use of Move does show one of the area's that game consoles have laxed in the past gain a new footing on this generation with a control system like the Move.

i see your point. move could open doors Wii couldn't or just were't tried with Wii. in the greater scheme of things move could show more potential then previously thought and maybe some gamer perception?

they most likely were tryed with the Wii , but like the guy's at MIT showed that without certain sensor's like  as an example:

without magnetometers your motion sensor suffer's from sensor drift. like the guy's from MIT Sony used the same idea to use magnetometers inside the Move to offset sensor drift. the Wii motion or even Wii motion plus still does not contain a magnetometer so the sensor drift is there and the precision will suffer.

where Sony also went one step further than the guy's at MIT did they also used the Playstation Eye which is an upgraded EYETOY to also show exact position of the controller in a 3D area of space. also adding augmented reality is a great benefit also here is a recent video of DR. marks showing what thing's developer's can do with the Move like say make a sword, than carve section's out of that sword and paint or mark the sword.

so in say an rpg, you could take a regular sword, carve ruins and paint section's of that sword to make it unique. because you than become the artist!

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-future-of-playstation-move-article

Why do you assume they won't come out with more core IPs this or next gen?

Sony for example didn't have the Uncharted, Resistence, and Motorstorm IPs until this gen.

In time we'll see new core games from MS.

not all of them, but most of them, Microsoft is building an identity off of kinect, pretty soon it will be the kinect console and they will focus the vast majority of their time on that, finally something they can call their own. why waste millions of dollars buying games that will only come to the ps3 later on down the line, are there any high profile 3rd party exclusive games and or content that is still exclusive to M$???

Microsoft want to do their own thing and kinect is that vessel, they just lack to vision of Sony to secure talented developers as their own, now their core franchises won't be going anywhere, but I doubt they will try as hard as they did this gen to waste money on "timed exclusives"

that is of course, if kinect succeeds....which it will imo

Depends what those said hardcore fans were looking for.

If MS abandons the hardcore and goes full Kinnect (which I doubt they will, as Kinnect has yet to be a proven sales beast and many games will still use standard controllers) then they can prepare to lose a lot of their audience.

Genres like Gears, Halo, any shooting game: I don't see MS losing the Gears or Halo audience. They will replace Gears with another TPS if need be, and Halo will still be there because of 343 studios.

XBox Live - I don't see Sony or Nintendo taking down MS's live infrastructure. If you think @Home is better thats cool but the majority doesn't. Online is still best on the 360.

Those that abandoned Sony because MS offers the same multiplatform titles - I don't see that changing. MS has picked up more and more multiplatform titles every few months (my most anticipated being Naruto Ultimate Ninja Storm 2) and more game companies are finding out going multiplatform is the most beneficial for the bottom line unless your game sells a insane amount (or your second party).

The JRPG audience - This is the only audience I could really see MS losing at the moment. At the start we had a lot of great JRPG exclusives (Lost Odyssey being the biggest one) but eventually everything became timed exclusives and everyone cought on. Looking at sales the audience seemed pretty niche and MS probably figured WRPG was the way to go when it came to sales.

I think if MS continues to keep doing what they are doing - while maintaing using the standard controller and looking for more first party exclusives - then they should continue to build a strong fan base, while really only losing the few that bought a 360 for JRPGS - hopefully Square-Enix and others make more of their RPGS multiplatform.