I'll cut this short, bla bla bla you're wrong bla bla bla.

Do you honestly think that close to a million people are replacing or will replace their working Xbox 360s with a new model just because it's come out?

Smart thinking. I'm leaning towards this theory. But I certainly hope Squill is right. But why have you got this impression?

Btw, has someone posted the aligned weeks of the first weeks of PS3 Slim sales compared with X360 Slim sales?

Who is leading?

I'm going to be bold and say that 85% of the HW boost from Reach will be the ltd edition Reach sku's. So it's not Reach the game that will boost 360 sales much, but Reach the console. Doesn't matter either way of course because it will be a big week or 2 for 360 HW sales. Remember also that MW2 had a special ed 360 sku, so again MW2 the game didn't push much HW, but MW2 the console did.

I think Reach is worth a bigger boost than ODST (14%), but not as big a boost as Halo 2 (46%) or Halo 3 (40%). I think somewhere in the high 20% range.

If 360 is not following a normal or expected sales pattern as Squill asserts, then I think Kinect and especially Reach anticipation as reasons are less plausible than the oft claimed "upgraders" reasons. Squill thinks RROD fear has held people back from buying their first 360. By the same token RROD concern is an equally compelling reason to switch from a phat 360 to a 360s, especially if your phat is 2 or more years old (the expense can be justified), and definitely if it's 3 years old. If I had a 3-year old phat 360 I'd be upgrading for sure. In fact anyone in that situation who isn't but can afford to do it is being unwise. Reliability concerns of the older model are a factor for 360 that don't really have an historical precedent in previous generations.

Nearly a million customers upgrading their old systems to the new one because they are afraid of RROD or they like the new look?  I don't buy that for one moment.  

Look, I recently dropped my satellite system because I was going to give Netflix and Torrent downloads a try.  I did it for 4 months and basically my First Gen Elite model 360 was online for at least 18 hours a day (even when I was sleeping).  I did this mainly to see if it would RROD so I could get the free repair and then if something happend to it I would be covered in the extended warranty  for another 3 years (my 3 years coverage is gone sooner than later).  Long story short it never died, I got a different satellite company and now my 360 is delegated back to gaming and netflix (since i have seen most of the decent netflix movies now not much of that).  I may start watching B5 again though I loved that series.

That long story was just my example of how the RROD isn't as big of a problem now as it once was.  And people upgrading to a 360s simply for that, IMHO, is no where near what some of you guys think it is.  If there was a mass current owner migration to the 360s it would have been the first week or 2.  And with a million new customers, I just have my doubts about the old customer re-buying arguments.

I guess the big question now is how long will these crazy sells continue on?  If it goes to 1/1/11 there will be a lot of tormented fanboys around here and I personally would have a huge smile on my face.

I also hope the PS3 continues to do well and beat the Wii, the HD twins need to regain momentum from the Wii.  Frankly I thought the Wii was a fad and it might last a year at most.  Cheers to Nintendo though, they certainly have made a fortune with the system and I even enjoy playing a lot of the games on it.  I just simply don't want them to demolish everyone else.

That's exactly what they are doing, replacing or buying a second unit. Otherwise, we would see a big boost in software sales for the 360, which is not the case at all

hwo the hell does it make sense

I'll cut this short, bla bla bla you're wrong bla bla bla.

Do you honestly think that close to a million people are buying new 360's and not buying any software?

Yeah I do!! I know several like myself who have.

It's not an indication of the long term sales the new 360S will receive though, so I'm not bothered.

Certain people clinging on to this expect once the majority that have wanted to upgrade have, sales will die. They're going to be dissapointed.