Kinect and Reach already pushing Xbox 360 consoles?

[binary solo]

I'm going to be bold and say that 85% of the HW boost from Reach will be the ltd edition Reach sku's. So it's not Reach the game that will boost 360 sales much, but Reach the console. Doesn't matter either way of course because it will be a big week or 2 for 360 HW sales. Remember also that MW2 had a special ed 360 sku, so again MW2 the game didn't push much HW, but MW2 the console did.

I think Reach is worth a bigger boost than ODST (14%), but not as big a boost as Halo 2 (46%) or Halo 3 (40%). I think somewhere in the high 20% range.

If 360 is not following a normal or expected sales pattern as Squill asserts, then I think Kinect and especially Reach anticipation as reasons are less plausible than the oft claimed "upgraders" reasons. Squill thinks RROD fear has held people back from buying their first 360. By the same token RROD concern is an equally compelling reason to switch from a phat 360 to a 360s, especially if your phat is 2 or more years old (the expense can be justified), and definitely if it's 3 years old. If I had a 3-year old phat 360 I'd be upgrading for sure. In fact anyone in that situation who isn't but can afford to do it is being unwise. Reliability concerns of the older model are a factor for 360 that don't really have an historical precedent in previous generations.