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Forums - Microsoft - Lazard Capital Market analyst: Kinect to sell 2 million units per month

dallas on 13 August 2010

I'm just not sure if MS has its strategy in check...... why is the king of action/shooters asking people to buy into something that has little potential for online?            

 

If MS is expecting to sell 2 million units a month then they are *seriously* moving to the casual side of things, and I'd think that about 1/2 of their games from now on would be casuals in order to entice that kind of hardware movement..... or this 2 million per month prediction is just overblown like the rest of MS hype.   This is a different business model than they have had.....with their emphasis on action titles and online play, and I really thought that MS was doing well before but this sends them into some cloudy territory that I don't see as a clear win for MS. 



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A Bad Clown on 13 August 2010

Hey, 360s sell well at the holidays so it's possible with the bundles. I remember last year one week in November was over 500k for them. I'm pretty sure the 360/Kinect bundles will sell better than just kinect.



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Carl on 13 August 2010

I think it's possible.

Hype is huge for it, so it should have a huge opening in it's first month or two. 360 sales being as high as they are will help it too.

The real test for it (And Move to a lesser extent IMO) will be if it can maintain it's sales through the next year...



                            

De85 on 13 August 2010
M.U.G.E.N said:
Seece said:
M.U.G.E.N said:

Without a doubt possible...Kinect will be more front loaded than the competition for sure and this holidays will be big for MS with a good marketing push


It won't be frontloaded just because you think/want so.

What's your reasoning for that anyway?

oooooh scary :P I mean seriously, as of now it's specualtion all around...it won't do great LT just because you so dearly want to either :P so take a chill pill and relax

I gave one of my major reasonings to the other person as well, the lack of veriety in the games it can offer currently offers will be a big problem and the current line up justifies that complaint of mine I would think. I also think that it will be mainly front loaded due to the marketing push that MS gonna rain down on us during the rest of the year (After Reach I would think) which will help it gain impressive sales. The price point will be a problem also in the long run also imho because we can argue all day long oh noez move iz expenzive too etc BUT Sony can always market the move as starting at ---- etc. which will do well with the casuals. The limitations is another issue I have with kinect, the dress code, couch etc etc MIGHT pose a problem for them in the long run, and no until I see a proper title being played while sitting I won't trust PR on the matter. Again this is all speculation, just like everyone elses. I can clearly be proven wrong with time.


Fixed.  Just because there's not that much variety in the games that will be out for it this Christmas doesn't mean devs can't/won't get creative and find some really interesting ways to use kinect over the next few years.   



leatherhat on 13 August 2010
De85 said:
M.U.G.E.N said:
Seece said:
M.U.G.E.N said:

Without a doubt possible...Kinect will be more front loaded than the competition for sure and this holidays will be big for MS with a good marketing push


It won't be frontloaded just because you think/want so.

What's your reasoning for that anyway?

oooooh scary :P I mean seriously, as of now it's specualtion all around...it won't do great LT just because you so dearly want to either :P so take a chill pill and relax

I gave one of my major reasonings to the other person as well, the lack of veriety in the games it can offer currently offers will be a big problem and the current line up justifies that complaint of mine I would think. I also think that it will be mainly front loaded due to the marketing push that MS gonna rain down on us during the rest of the year (After Reach I would think) which will help it gain impressive sales. The price point will be a problem also in the long run also imho because we can argue all day long oh noez move iz expenzive too etc BUT Sony can always market the move as starting at ---- etc. which will do well with the casuals. The limitations is another issue I have with kinect, the dress code, couch etc etc MIGHT pose a problem for them in the long run, and no until I see a proper title being played while sitting I won't trust PR on the matter. Again this is all speculation, just like everyone elses. I can clearly be proven wrong with time.


Fixed.  Just because there's not that much variety in the games that will be out for it this Christmas doesn't mean devs can't/won't get creative and find some really interesting ways to use kinect over the next few years.   

Its a very limited control scheme though, there isn't even a way to make your character walk. Unless you add a game controller which somewhat defeats the whole purpose of kinect.



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Kennyheart on 13 August 2010

Maybe 2 million during hoilday season but not every month.No way in hell.With it being 150 that won't sell like hotcakes.It's almost the price of a wii.



Slimebeast on 13 August 2010
Legend11 said:

If Kinect does indeed sell over 2 million units per month with the Xbox 360 bundle being the more attractive option like this analyst believes it will likely turn the current gap with the PS3 into a Grand Canyon.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2010-08-13-lazard-kinect-will-sell-4m-over-christmas

Lazard: Kinect will sell 4m over Christmas

Alec Meer
Deputy Editor, GamesIndustry.biz
13/08/2010 @ 09:17

Lazard Capital Market analyst Colin Sebastian has claimed Kinect could "exceed our original expectations."

Believing that Microsoft's marketing efforts will skew towards the "better value" $299 bundle of the motion controller plus an Xbox 360 rather than the $129 standalone unit, he has increased Lazard's sales forecast.

"Our checks indicate that the Kinect build is on a pace of around 2 million units per month... suggesting to us potentially more aggressive launch plans for the device," he said in a note to investors. "As such, we are increasing our Kinect unit sales expectations for [the Christmas quarter] to 4 million worldwide, up from 3 million units previously."

lol what checks?

And 4 million Kinects before New year. They're insane.

Even 1.5 million actual sold Kinects would be really great (a lil over 1 million bundled and less than 500K standalone units).

Personally I perdict less than a million though. 750K bundled and 250K standalone.



Vetteman94 on 13 August 2010

Well I see Kinect and Move doing approximately the same this holiday season,  and by that I mean terrible sales wise.   I just dont see many people actually going to buy it.   But thats my opinion,  and I guess since I am not an analyst I might have a better chance at being right. 



dallas on 13 August 2010
Vetteman94 said:

Well I see Kinect and Move doing approximately the same this holiday season,  and by that I mean terrible sales wise.   I just dont see many people actually going to buy it.   But thats my opinion,  and I guess since I am not an analyst I might have a better chance at being right. 


I think that some of these analysts and consultants are paid not to give objective opinions.......as another form of advertising.  

 

2 million a month?  really?



Kennyheart on 13 August 2010
dallas said:
Vetteman94 said:

Well I see Kinect and Move doing approximately the same this holiday season,  and by that I mean terrible sales wise.   I just dont see many people actually going to buy it.   But thats my opinion,  and I guess since I am not an analyst I might have a better chance at being right. 


I think that some of these analysts and consultants are paid not to give objective opinions.......as another form of advertising.  

 

2 million a month?  really?

Then why is patcher still giving his opinions