If Kinect does indeed sell over 2 million units per month with the Xbox 360 bundle being the more attractive option like this analyst believes it will likely turn the current gap with the PS3 into a Grand Canyon.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2010-08-13-lazard-kinect-will-sell-4m-over-christmas

Lazard: Kinect will sell 4m over Christmas

Alec Meer
Deputy Editor, GamesIndustry.biz
13/08/2010 @ 09:17

Lazard Capital Market analyst Colin Sebastian has claimed Kinect could "exceed our original expectations."

Believing that Microsoft's marketing efforts will skew towards the "better value" $299 bundle of the motion controller plus an Xbox 360 rather than the $129 standalone unit, he has increased Lazard's sales forecast.

"Our checks indicate that the Kinect build is on a pace of around 2 million units per month... suggesting to us potentially more aggressive launch plans for the device," he said in a note to investors. "As such, we are increasing our Kinect unit sales expectations for [the Christmas quarter] to 4 million worldwide, up from 3 million units previously."

Sebastian also attributes this new optimism to how he perceived Microsoft targeting its audience. "We believe that Microsoft is preparing a significant marketing and advertising campaign for Kinect, coinciding with the device launch," he said.

...

The analyst was less ebullient about PlayStation Move, but thought it would at least provide a signpost to Kinect's success.

"We note that Sony's Move launches in North America on Sept. 19, and although without as much 'buzz' as Kinect, Move should provide an early indication as to consumer demand for the next generation of motion controllers," he claimed.

Without a doubt possible...Kinect will be more front loaded than the competition for sure and this holidays will be big for MS with a good marketing push

Damn, if this is the case I may purchase 2 bundles so I can sell them on Ebay once they  are out of stock.  Nothing like milking the consumer dry through Ebay.....

See i think the opposite really.

I think Kinect will have a decent opening. Sell a couple of million new consoles over the holidays etc..

But as time goes by i expect it to start picking up once new software starts to come out that appeals to all. Like i heard a rumour about EA making the next fight night compatible with it. If devs can make known franchises work with it then the device will appeal to the hardcore as well as the casual. Right now the software line up in my opinion is not aimed at the hardcore, but more aimed at getting casual Wii owners to buy a 360.

As the thing gets more devs working on it i expect its popularity to grow.

It won't be frontloaded just because you think/want so.

What's your reasoning for that anyway?

I would have agreed with you unless I have seen the current line up...I can't see Kinect doing any major hardcore games other than racers...maybe as an added component, such as throw grenades in Halo etc. So for now I remain doubtful but that can be easily changed with some impressive SW reveals..so who knows maybe MS will bring the heat to GC :D

oooooh scary :P I mean seriously, as of now it's specualtion all around...it won't do great LT just because you so dearly want to either :P so take a chill pill and relax

I gave one of my major reasonings to the other person as well, the lack of veriety in the games it can offer will be a big problem and the current line up justifies that complaint of mine I would think. I also think that it will be mainly front loaded due to the marketing push that MS gonna rain down on us during the rest of the year (After Reach I would think) which will help it gain impressive sales. The price point will be a problem also in the long run also imho because we can argue all day long oh noez move iz expenzive too etc BUT Sony can always market the move as starting at ---- etc. which will do well with the casuals. The limitations is another issue I have with kinect, the dress code, couch etc etc MIGHT pose a problem for them in the long run, and no until I see a proper title being played while sitting I won't trust PR on the matter. Again this is all speculation, just like everyone elses. I can clearly be proven wrong with time.

Another insane analyst I guess.

I'm perfectly fine ta, I don't need :p to neutralize my posts.

I'm not saying it will do great lifetime, you made a statement that sounded like you thought it was fact.

Kinect isn't a game, it's not going to have the same sales pattern as a game.

If you mean it's gonna have a big holiday then go down in february ect, well no shit. Kinect will get more software, core games are said to be coming, Kinect could very well have a bigger holiday in 2011, meaning it won't be frontloaded.

neutralize posts by using :P? lol okkkkkkkk then

and yeah you do sound calm and happy

Not sure what this comment about game life cycle vs. Kinect life cycle was about. Don't really see a connection between the two.

Are you one of those people who needs to see "imo" in every post other people make to know it's opinion and not fact? Cuz that's just silly. I was stating my take on what might take place in the future just as you are doing yourself now. If not I would have thought what you said was fact too when we both know it's not.So ugh no I was station an opinion/view point of things to come, not a fact.

As for the games I will believe it when I see it and frankly after all this time all MS could showcase that is hardcore and kinect related was a forza demo, is not helping me change my opinion on the matter either. But then again I can be proven wrong and if that happens that's great news for us gamers. But I'm basing what I say now on what I KNOW for now. Nothing more nothing less.