There have been several things this Gen that will affect GT5 sales.  There are a few people around here thinking its going to sell 15 million units and 3 or 4 million PS3's alone.  You guys are going to be VERY VERY upset with those kinds of predictions.  Honestly that is not going to happen. 

not many people are expecting anything like that you should see the GT5 sales prediction thread

.I have seen even larger expectations.  And a lot at 10-15 million copies sold.  (not ever going to happen)  To small a user base and again that base has been split up

And here is why:

1) The PS3 user base is no where near what the PS2 base was back in the day.  The attach ratio would have to be a lot better than anything we have seen so far for the PS3.  

wat????????????????

GT3 sold on a lower userbase than GT5 will release at

and the attack ration was big then too

GT3 had a hugely growing userbase that went on to double or triple or quadroople what the PS3 will do.  Do you honestly think GT3 would have sold that many copies if it had another viable console who had stolen half or more of its overall sells and that console dropped several very good racing sims?  I still think GT3 would have done well but it wouldnt have done as well....

People continually site this and that and all the former GT games that sold x million copies and that the demo has sold x many copies.  Well the demo was given away free for some time so a lot of that shouldn't count toward what the GT:5 p sold.

what demo was given as free???????????????????????

Free as in BUNDLED?  Anyone who read that would have guessed thats what I meant. 

 If anything GT:5 P would piss me off,  sorta like dangling a carrot on a stick in front of a horse.  It can almost reach it but it continually cant get to it.  ( several of the GT games were bundled as well).

so what if they were bundled????????????????

this is be bundled too and they were a premium bundles  

Bundles = inflated sales if you ask me, not just for GT series but any series that has a game bundled.  Kungfu panda anyone?

2) The continual delays that we have became used to has seriously put a lot of people off.  Nothing like waiting for something so long that in the end you turn against it.  I know I have done that several times in my life.  Delays are bad when it happens for 3 or 4 months but when that turns into years, only god knows how pissed some people are.  And pissed off people generally go somewhere else to play.  If thats Forza or some other race game so be it.

GT games have always had delay.

Have they ever been this long?  With the constant promise that it was "finished" and just basically ready to be sent out?  I don't ever remember it taking this long.  Because I have owned every GT game up to GT:5 p, I think.

3) A lot of the GT:5 players have merged over to the 360 or the Wii.

wat????????????????????

Are you saying none did?

 There are no doubts the 360 has gained a lot of Sony's market share.  And the only way GT:5 will do 10 Million plus is if there is a huge exodus away from the 360 and the PS3 bundles it for a long time.  Which I honestly don't see happening.

yes 360 did but not so much the GT5 fanbase

And you got this from what, your crystal ball?  I wouldn't mind knowing the super lotto numbers for this Satarday, and I would also like to know who wins the next super bowl and what the exact score is.  I could surely win enough money to never work again.  Thanks in advance...

4) This is probably the biggest problem that GT:5 faces this gen.  People have moved along to different genres.  The people who buy these types of games are simply turning to something else.  I don't think anyone who really thinks about it for a few moments will say differently.  Games centered at Racing have been losing popularity for some time.  Which saddens me very much because I happen to love most racing games.  Racing simply isn't what it used to be and I don't think its a console seller like last gen.

agree but the main thing is that there have not been any good racing games this generation

Um, Forza 2, 3 and PGR are standouts.  Did they kick ass at sells?  Hell no.  But they indeed were great games.  Just goes to show you that racing in general isn't what it used to be.

i know forza,PGR but there have not been any standouts

GT5 could be that standing out

I still think GT:5 will do really well, just not 10 million units or more.  I have said before that it will do between 4.5-6 million units sold.  With marginal bundling.  If its bundled a ton it may do 5-7.5 million.

so you think it could seel less than GT5P...................LMAO  

If I had to put a number on it I would say 6 million.  But yes, it does have a chance to sell fewer copies than P.  Depending if Sony bundles it to death or not.

Just my opinion, who knows it may do 20 million. :P  ha ha.....

YEAH WHO KNOWS

What a thourough argumentation...

1. GT3 and 4 didn't sell 15 and 10M day one, they did so throughout the life of the console which sold what? 140M now? Would you say the games are not good enough for New PS2 buyers to buy them?

yes they did not sell firat day but they did sell their total sales in the 2 years time

GT3 and GT4 aren't currently selling and even if they are they are minor and aren't tracked

so your  argumentation itself is invalid

tone more thing you don't know what PS3 will go onto sell as PS3 has as many price cuts as PS2 left now

2. I said Diehard fans, cause thse guys that are suposed to buy a 150 € limited edition would surely pay the 30€ for the PSP version instead of DLing it.

yes but not all fans pay $150

everybody is jst expecting 100-200k max on that $150 bundle and PSP sales are already 1.95M so those fans you talk about already do have the game

one more thing jst because they are diehard fans doesn't mean they will buy a PSP as alot of GT fans buy the game for its visuals on a big screen and PSP isn't big screen

Especially since they probably bought their PSP in the first place for GTPSP that was a pre launch taunt video....

yeah many bought a PSP for GTPSP but we don't know how many

3. So, competition in this category is higher than it ever was console wise...

wat competition,yeah Forza and PGR are there but that isn't much competition

and if you are talking about general racers then NFS was a bigger competition then which it isn't now

Also the game was bundled with the PS3.

so????????

and it was a premium bundle

I  said many people will not buy GT5 even though they got P, the ones I listed are part of them. Others will have succombed to competition and considering the amount of cars and tracks all these gamesalready have, the marginal gain of getting GT5 is very little for the non Diehard fans.

but why do you think casuals got the game.it can be that only minor amount of casuals got then game

it normally goes like this

hardcore buy the game,praise it

this makes news and word of mouth

and the casuals buy it

so it will be the same for GT5

15 million people did not fall off the face of the earth but I'd make a bet at least half of them moved to the 360. You'd have to be crazy if you think GT5 is going to be the best selling in the series when the PS3 has sold 1/4 of what the PS2 sold. The attach ratio would have to be ridiculous for this to happen.