Perhaps you mean average expectations instead of relevant expectations(oxymoron). If you mean average expectations of those on this forum, then I can bet you that it will flop, because it's not going to sell 15 million units, but that's just my prediction.

I think an attainable goal is to LTD outsell Reach.

At this point, under 10m is a flop, according to most on this forum.

Then your original statment makes no sense. You said that we are trying to determine if this game meets expectations "too early." However, according to your logic, we can never possibly know if this game will meet your relevant expectation. Why?

Because Sony will never tell us their expectations, will they? Unless you are aware of some official prediction for game sales. I certain am not. Furthermore, what would stop them from giving you a false expectation, just to make the actual number look better? Why wouldn't they just tell us that they expect the game to sell 5 million units, so they can crow if it sells 7.

So, if we can never determine what the actual "relevant expectations" are, then how will waiting improve our ability to jump to conclusions? How can the game ever flop if our scale is being judged by expectations which are either never presented or dishonest?

If GT5 has the same legs as GT4 and GT3, it will top 10 million for sure. If not, I think it could be a tall order, even with stellar EMEAA numbers. Honestly, I didn't realize that MW2 had done so well on the PS3. Good news I guess, despite the fact that I don't like the game itself.

gt5 will do just fine, wev seen the likes of heavy rain, uncharted 2, many predicted that they would flop, judging on the pre orders for uncharted 2, and for heavy rain they said that the genra had no crowd. no one is expecting gt5 to flop, but its going to be higher then my expectations which are 8-9 million.

no one here thinks that its going to sell 15 million units, yes their are some people, but its like coming and saying that 360 fans think reach is going to sell 12 million units in 10 weeks just because a one user said it was his prediction(it was reach)

You know, I don't really care and I realize how little this matters, but I can't just let you get the last word when you've presented Bender breaking logic like that.

You said that we needed to wait, and that we were jumping to conclusions too early, because the only way to determine if this game is a flop, is to compare it to relevant(Sony) expectations.

BUT, if we can never, ever know Sony's real expectations, then how will waiting help us do anything? Might as well speculate right now, it's just as valid as if we already knew the numbers, because according to you, there is nothing relevant to compare them to.

it shouldn't sell less than 5 million worldwide. that itself is pretty successful. 

You missed the sarcasm >.>

that comparision that isn't needed

I have my doubts that it could do as well as the previous iterations but here is why I think it could reach 10 million.

Preorders are at 144,000 with 12 weeks to go. It will likely reach 250,000-300,000 preorders in NA before release.

Prologue sold 145,000 the first week in the Americas. So GT5 is looking to launch twice as big as Prologue in the Americas

EU will likely account for 55%-60% of the total sales, much like GT5P.

Given this, we are looking at a 1 million first week and sales twice that of GT5P. So around 8-10 million total.

GT5 will sell well and be the best selling PS3 exclusive but 10 million will depend on legs.

@AkibaFan

Going by your definition of disappointing sales of sub 5/6 million no Gran Turismo will not disappoint.  I can see it selling 4 million copies in Europe, close to 3 in Japan, and over 1.5 million in the Americas which brings it solidly over the 8 million sold mark.

I don't think the game is going to sell over 10 million in its lifetime though simply because the Gran Turismo games now has more competitiors than ever to compete with.