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Forums - Sony Discussion - Gran Turismo 5 - SALES PREDICTION Thread!

Vetteman94 on 10 August 2010
CChaos said:

Week 1

NA: 600k. Japan: 300k. Others: 800k. Total: 1.7m

Week 10

NA: 1.2m. Japan: 500k. Others: 1.5m. Total: 3.2m

LTD Prediction

NA: 1.5m. Japan: 800k. Others: 2m. Total: 4.3m

My predictions are mostly based off a few specific facts: first, so far, I'm comparing this to the highest selling game on the PS3 that was sold ONLY on the PS3, and that was Metal Gear Solid 4 at 4.78m units LTD. I know just how obsessive the fans are for MGS, so I'm willing to say reasonably that they might have a few more fans than GT5 might. It might become the best selling PS3 exclusive since the console's release, but it'll be close if it does.

Statistically speaking, here's my last set of predictions, based off of stats from previous games. In that sense, I'll compare it to GT3: A-Spec, since it has 14m units LTD. There are, to date, around 145m PS2s sold as well.

14.89m unit equals out to 10.3% of all PS2 owners having bought it for penetration rate. This is actually a decent number, considering that FF13 on PS3 was bought by 11.5% of PS3 owners. So, my prediction:

If GT5 is to do as well, comparatively, to GT3: A-Spec, they would need to sell approximately 3.7m units. 5m ? Possible, I figure. 6m ? I somehow doubt it. We'll see when it arrives though.

WOW,  not this horrible arguement again,  please tell me these numbers arent going to be used in the averages?



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Boutros on 10 August 2010
Vetteman94 said:
Boutros said:
Vetteman94 said:

1st Week

Name North America Others Japan TOTAL
 Vetteman94  750,000
  1.1 Million
 350,000
  2.2 Million

1st 10 weeks

Name North America Others Japan TOTAL
 Vetteman94  2.1 Million
  3.2 Million
  1.1 Million
  6.4 Million

Lifetime

Name North America Others Japan TOTAL
Vetteman94  4.1 Million
 6.5 Million
  2.2 Million
  12.8 Million

 

There's something wrong with your Japan numbers...

There is nothing wrong with my numbers,  move along please

350k FW and then 1.1 million for first 10 weeks?

There IS something wrong with that.



darthdevidem01 on 10 August 2010
CChaos said:

Week 1

NA: 600k. Japan: 300k. Others: 800k. Total: 1.7m

Week 10

NA: 1.2m. Japan: 500k. Others: 1.5m. Total: 3.2m

LTD Prediction

NA: 1.5m. Japan: 800k. Others: 2m. Total: 4.3m

My predictions are mostly based off a few specific facts: first, so far, I'm comparing this to the highest selling game on the PS3 that was sold ONLY on the PS3, and that was Metal Gear Solid 4 at 4.78m units LTD. I know just how obsessive the fans are for MGS, so I'm willing to say reasonably that they might have a few more fans than GT5 might. It might become the best selling PS3 exclusive since the console's release, but it'll be close if it does.

Statistically speaking, here's my last set of predictions, based off of stats from previous games. In that sense, I'll compare it to GT3: A-Spec, since it has 14m units LTD. There are, to date, around 145m PS2s sold as well.

14.89m unit equals out to 10.3% of all PS2 owners having bought it for penetration rate. This is actually a decent number, considering that FF13 on PS3 was bought by 11.5% of PS3 owners. So, my prediction:

If GT5 is to do as well, comparatively, to GT3: A-Spec, they would need to sell approximately 3.7m units. 5m ? Possible, I figure. 6m ? I somehow doubt it. We'll see when it arrives though.

There is no way in hell GT5 is going sell less than MGS4 or FF13 which you have used in this post, the GT franchise has pretty much always outsold the MGS/FF

That is all

But I will include your prediction.



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

leo-j on 10 August 2010

Week 1 world wide:

 

3,250,000

 

 

End of year:

 

5,050,000

 

LTD(NON BUNDLE):

 

7,800,000



 

mM
CChaos on 10 August 2010

Why not, Vette? I don't see why my numbers are any less valid than anyone elses. I figured I was actually being pretty positive there. Sorry if I'm bursting someone's bubble here, but that's about how many I feel seems right. I hate to break it to you, but there are less PS3s sold than PS2s by about, oh, around 110 million. The numbers are just not going to be as high as the PS2s for the simple reason that even the absolute best selling game ever for the PS3 (so far) haven't sold to more than 22% of the owners out there.

Unless this is only a thread for the supremely optimistic fans only?

EDIT: @Darth, much obliged. I appreciate the inclusion. I mean, worst case scenario, my numbers get blown away.



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Boutros on 10 August 2010

darth, there's something wrong with the LTD Sales Prediction table...



darthdevidem01 on 10 August 2010
Vetteman94 said:
CChaos said:

Week 1

NA: 600k. Japan: 300k. Others: 800k. Total: 1.7m

Week 10

NA: 1.2m. Japan: 500k. Others: 1.5m. Total: 3.2m

LTD Prediction

NA: 1.5m. Japan: 800k. Others: 2m. Total: 4.3m

My predictions are mostly based off a few specific facts: first, so far, I'm comparing this to the highest selling game on the PS3 that was sold ONLY on the PS3, and that was Metal Gear Solid 4 at 4.78m units LTD. I know just how obsessive the fans are for MGS, so I'm willing to say reasonably that they might have a few more fans than GT5 might. It might become the best selling PS3 exclusive since the console's release, but it'll be close if it does.

Statistically speaking, here's my last set of predictions, based off of stats from previous games. In that sense, I'll compare it to GT3: A-Spec, since it has 14m units LTD. There are, to date, around 145m PS2s sold as well.

14.89m unit equals out to 10.3% of all PS2 owners having bought it for penetration rate. This is actually a decent number, considering that FF13 on PS3 was bought by 11.5% of PS3 owners. So, my prediction:

If GT5 is to do as well, comparatively, to GT3: A-Spec, they would need to sell approximately 3.7m units. 5m ? Possible, I figure. 6m ? I somehow doubt it. We'll see when it arrives though.

WOW,  not this horrible arguement again,  please tell me these numbers arent going to be used in the averages?

I'm sorry I HAVE TO use them cus otherwise it would seem like I only use predictions which I "like"

If you wanna convince him to change his numbers, go ahead..

__________

REMEMBER EVERYONE

YOU CAN CHANGE YOUR PREDICTIONS TILL 15th September, simply post in the thread saying which one you want changed



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

Vetteman94 on 10 August 2010
Boutros said:
Vetteman94 said:
Boutros said:
Vetteman94 said:

1st Week

Name North America Others Japan TOTAL
 Vetteman94  750,000
  1.1 Million
 350,000
  2.2 Million

1st 10 weeks

Name North America Others Japan TOTAL
 Vetteman94  2.1 Million
  3.2 Million
  1.1 Million
  6.4 Million

Lifetime

Name North America Others Japan TOTAL
Vetteman94  4.1 Million
 6.5 Million
  2.2 Million
  12.8 Million

 

There's something wrong with your Japan numbers...

There is nothing wrong with my numbers,  move along please

350k FW and then 1.1 million for first 10 weeks?

There IS something wrong with that.

In your opinion.   So what does it matter to you if I am wrong?



darthdevidem01 on 10 August 2010
leo-j said:

Week 1 world wide:

 

3,250,000

 

 

End of year:

 

5,050,000

 

LTD(NON BUNDLE):

 

7,800,000

Please do it region by region

and INCLUDE BUNDLES in your prediction

Otherwise I can't count them....this is stated n the rules and is needed to ensure equality between all predictions given.

@Boutros

lol I just copied and pasted so that I won't have to write MILLION every time I write down predictions

I'm gonna update the LTD table now..



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

darthdevidem01 on 10 August 2010
CChaos said:

Why not, Vette? I don't see why my numbers are any less valid than anyone elses. I figured I was actually being pretty positive there. Sorry if I'm bursting someone's bubble here, but that's about how many I feel seems right. I hate to break it to you, but there are less PS3s sold than PS2s by about, oh, around 110 million. The numbers are just not going to be as high as the PS2s for the simple reason that even the absolute best selling game ever for the PS3 (so far) haven't sold to more than 22% of the owners out there.

Unless this is only a thread for the supremely optimistic fans only?

EDIT: @Darth, much obliged. I appreciate the inclusion. I mean, worst case scenario, my numbers get blown away.

So you won't change your numbers?

I have to include them, but you won't consider changing em?

You have until 15th Sep to rethink BTW

REMEMBER how much GT5 Prologue has sold!



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey