I think the arcade will help sustain the higher sales the 360 has been getting. I think the slim an slim arcade will have the best and most sustained results in eurpoe and others, as wifi and reliablilty seemed to be big issues in those markets as oppoesed to america.

I'd say it was the same for the PS3 slim's first few weeks, going by it's software sales.  That tends to be the trend for mid-cycle refreshes, the enthusiasts and platform faithful tend to be first in line to get the new system too, then later on is when more general markets pick one up.  Same for DS Lite, DSi/XL, PSP2/3k and PSP Go.

On topic, I'd say the 4GB S will have less of a short term impact than the 250GB, but long term it'll drive sales more.  I bet the $299 Kinect bundle is a strong seller too, though I think they should've gone whole hog and bundled Kinect Sports.

I think the new Arcade won't boost 360 more than the new Elite did.

I think in a way it depends on kinect a lot. Microsoft said something like they were treating it like a new console release. This means massive advertising. You can already see it starting on this websites ad's. Regardless of peoples personal views about Kinect it is likely to sell quite a bit initially. That is just the way hardware is. This initial period will last until the holiday's. I think this holiday 360 will crush PS3 in terms of sales. But after that period i really think all prices for the arcade,Kinect and even the 250gb slim will need to come down. Otherwise i imagine sales will dry up quite fast. But hey who know's. People have gone crazy for a £200 new console without a price cut. Maybe more people will go crazy for a slightly more expensive arcade slim.

If Kinect does well the slim/kinect bundle will sell loads.

It will have a slight spike in sales but I believe most people who wanted the new XBox S would have rather gotten a Elite for the extra space, and it also came out before the Xbox Arcade S.

Though when the Kinect bundle is out it could sell pretty well considering they are saving $50.

it will probably move more then everyone expects, normal arcade also gave a not expected boost

and maybe for those of us that already got a hdd?

I think we should wait until Kinect to see if it'll drive sales, because as of right now, it doesn't look like it will. As for the Arcade Slim, I doubt think it'll drive sales like the Elite slim did. It may give a moderate boast, but nothing too serious. I doubt MOVE will drive sales upon release since it looks too similar to the wii for the average consumer. GT5 will drive sales since it's the first full Gran Turismo game released on the PS3. Isn't the white PS3 sku releasing this fall.That would drive sales at least slightly. I don't see the 360 outselling PS3 this holiday, but I wouldn't be shocked if it did.

hmmmm, alot of good arguments being made here, but I'm pretty sure that 80 percent of all the predictions made for this holiday will be wrong. I guess we all can agree that this holiday is going to be massive for console-owners. Fortunately, there is more time for us to track MOVE sales since it releases in Sept. As for Kinect, I understand that alot of people will be enticed by its charm, but we have to be honest here. At the price point its at, the only way for it to do well was for it to release this holiday. As a Christmas present.

OT: The arcade model will give the 360 a boost in sales which will phase-out much faster than the elite model will. However, since Halo: Reach will be releasing this sept, I wouldn't be surprised if it helped to continue the good sales well on through October. Now heres the real kicker. GT5 & Call of Duty: Black Ops. These software giants will be releasing on the same month, almost side-by-side. I'm really excited to see how this all pans-out, so I may examine it closely to see what did it and how it did it. :] 

I'm not sure whether fifty thousand people a week hold off from buying an Arcade because they're waiting for that extra built-in Wifi incentive.

And can you clarify what you mean by a "good surge" off Reach? As in, a 17k/14% week-on-week hardware boost like ODST provided, or something (much) larger?

just because it's a new model doesnt mean it will atract attention, yes casuals who want a 360 will go after the less expensive slimm,  but casuals don't upgrade, also it's 4gb so i don't know how it can boost sales by more then 5k-15k