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I think in a way it depends on kinect a lot. Microsoft said something like they were treating it like a new console release. This means massive advertising. You can already see it starting on this websites ad's. Regardless of peoples personal views about Kinect it is likely to sell quite a bit initially. That is just the way hardware is. This initial period will last until the holiday's. I think this holiday 360 will crush PS3 in terms of sales. But after that period i really think all prices for the arcade,Kinect and even the 250gb slim will need to come down. Otherwise i imagine sales will dry up quite fast. But hey who know's. People have gone crazy for a £200 new console without a price cut. Maybe more people will go crazy for a slightly more expensive arcade slim.

If Kinect does well the slim/kinect bundle will sell loads.