I wasn't expecting SMG 2 to kickstart hardware sales for the fact that most people that bought it already owned a Wii for SMG 1.

Black Wii Bundle has, in fact, pushed hardware sales. Did you take a look at May and June's NPD numbers? They are not amazing numbers, but they are sustaining pretty well.

Zelda Wii, like SMG2, will not have that big of an effect on hardware sales. We've already had a Zelda game on the Wii. The only way is if the game is a complete departure from the current formula and attracts different markets.

Really, there was no game revealed at e3 that seemed like a giant hardware seller. Wii Party is the biggest thing, but then again many people that buy this game will already own a Wii for the countless party games that already exist on the system.

The only thing that seemed like it had a chance of selling hardware was Wii Relax, if it ever gets released. Wii Relax is completely opposite to Wii Fit or any other game out there. It may look like an odd, crazy thing to us, but to people with stressful jobs or others that even just want to measure their heart rate, it is something that could be appealing. If it does come out and sells well, it will be the key to propelling Wii to a second "peak".

I think a lot of conjoining factors will be required to boost the hardware properly at this point, this goes for all three consoles. Software alone yields a lot less growth in hardware sales four years into (or five in the 360's case) the generation. I could see the Wii picking up a little bit of speed if they cut the price, remake it somehow (a new SKU with internal memory and custom details like colored and decorated cases you can change for instance) and launch some big games again (NSMBWii big). All in all, I don't expect any big surprises this gen, things will remain pretty much as they are (obviously, my PS3 and 360 predictions for end of 2010 will be pretty far off, the gap will be a lot bigger).

I agree with your points though, a lot rides on Relax and new peripherals at this point.

third partys dont count? whats wrong with Golden Eye, Conduit 2, Epic Mickey and ect?

Thus far, 3rd party games can hardly be attributed with amazing impact on Wii hardware sales, so I really don't put much stock in future titles either (also, the part about software impact on hardware sales farther into the cycle applies), if Super Mario Galaxy 2 didn't lift the roof, I honestly can't see efforts like The Conduit 2 having any impact at all. The other two are a new IP and a remake of a game that sold 130k in its original form. Hardly extremely promising if you ask me.

Edit; out of 83 million sellers on the Wii, 24 of them are Nintendo games, out of non Nintendo games about 17 titles are (by my definition) non casual games and only two of those managed to sell more on the Wii than on the PS3 but still less than on the 360. Like I said; 3rd parties are not the way to go of you want serious hardware bumps.

WOOT Conduit 2!!!

WOOT GolenEye! (maybe)

WOOT Metroid Other M!!!

WOOT Kirby's Epic Yarn!!!

WOOT Sonic Colors!!!

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOT!!!!!!

Hardware revisions and color changes don't seem like they will do much for the Wii. It worked for the HD consoles because they were practically begging for slimmer redesigns, but the Wii started off with a slim, sleek design. The relative weakness of the black/white bundles leads me to believe that colors don't seem to make enough of an impact.

Cutting the price seems like it would defeat the purpose as they would still lose revenue. This was a big mistake they made last year. They cut the price and then ended up selling out in January-March. Think of the revenue they would have saved if they just would have waited! Then they could have used the price cut NOW during the summer drought where it might actually be effective.

The best chance they have now is a BIG software title. This title has to be like Pokemon for the Gameboy or Guitar Hero for the PS2. Attracting new leagues of customers and making hardware sales explode and linger for a half-decade longer. I'm not certain (as I haven't seen it), but it seems Wii Relax may have the best chance of doing this.

Kirby's Epic Yarn has been announced for a release in early 2011, thus it is incapable of becoming a Wii Q3/Q4 (2010) hit. Europe (and very unlikely the whole of PAL) was the first area to have an unofficial release date, so this could mean that Japan and North America receive the game in Autumn/Winter 2010. 

I actually prefer it this way, if it was released in Q4 2010 I probably wouldn't have got it as I would have got DKC Returns instead.  However, know I probably will get it

The Top Five Best Selling Wii Games in the Christmas period (December/January) will be (my prediction):

Wii Party

Donkey Kong Country Returns

Metroid: Other M

Goldeneye 007

Super Mario Galaxy 2*

*Should gain a higher amount of sales by Christmas

I think the 'holiday' top 5 will be (in order, worldwide)... not counting Wii Sports/Resort

• Donkey Kong Country Returns
• Wii Party
• Just Dance 2
• New Super Mario Bros. Wii
• Wii Fit Plus