Kinect, the upcoming motion and voice control add-on for Xbox 360, could bring in $1 billion for Microsoft in its first year, an industry analyst said Monday.
Sandeep Aggarwal, an analyst with Caris & Co., said in a research note that the device, which is expected to sell for $150 when it's released Nov. 4, will generate $2 billion in industry revenue, with 50 to 60 percent going to Microsoft itself. Barron's first reported the research note.
Aggarwal expects 15 to 25 percent of current Xbox 360 owners to buy Kinect within the first year. At 15 percent, that could bring in $900 million in sales. Then he figures Kinect will generate 1 million extra console sales for about $300 million.
Of course, all of this would push up Xbox Live revenue, which is thought to have brought in more than $1 billion during the last fiscal year. (Microsoft's fiscal 2010 ended June 30.) And then there's game sales, the revenue from some of which would go to Microsoft.
Add everything up, and Aggarwal estimates Microsoft will net about $1 billion from Kinect during the first year, according to Barron's.
Microsoft stock closed up 56 cents -- or 2.31 percent -- to $24.83, and was still rising in after-hours trading. The software superpower is busy wooing and wowing business partners this week at its annual Worldwide Partner Conference in Washington, D.C.
