was being sarcastic with my embarrassed comment i wasnt impressed with reachs performance neither were others partially with its meta score at that time and pretended to be worried to get more pro reach comments in here

heres a few more of my threads

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=116902

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=84376

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=84975

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/5646/10-week-countdown-2008-results/

although one of my favorites will always be what transpired in this thread

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=122878&page=1

and no im not a xbox fan i do like what they brought to the table this gen and that 3rd partys are superior on it.  when i started to do pro 360 predictions in 2011 i became tired of being on the pro side of the ps3 in the ps3vs360 do to inferior multi plats, psn being hacked and the lack of M rated exclusives that catered to me so i just wanted to do deliver the same for 360 fans as i did with ps3s

right now my stance is neutral if the war next gen carriers on as vicious as it did during the start of this gen i will put a uniform on and do work again

Halo: Reach sold at least 1 million sales digitally as it was bundled with Fable 3 which sold 1.5m during the 2011 holidays. Realistically it sold 1.5-1.75 million digitally which will put it at about 11-11.2 million.

I don't think GT5 will outsell Halo: Reach until the end of next year, unless GT6 kills its legs and it stops at around 11.25m and Halo: Reach will be a tiny amount in front. They will be ridiculously close in the end I think, wish we had hard numbers on Halo: Reaches digital sales.

lol

Oh wow, I have a terrible prediction fanclub.

Well....I......... *runs away*

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BTW I did write a f*** lot back in the day. I'm still bad at predictions (I think Wii U will do very well.....after this, now I'm scared about being wrong), but I think I've learnt that I know less and less then I realize.

I joined VGC in what February 2010? This is one of my earliest predictions, and definatly a post from when I was more ignorant, and knew little about where VGC numbers come from and how games sell. I mean I would never use attach rates as an arguement nowadays, I think I know a lot more now. I thought Halo: Reach would do better, and GT5 did open poorly, I had no clue it would gain the legs it did, legs no other PS3 franchise has mananeged to obtain. Plus I made the prediction using VGC sales figures, which untill last week had GT5 at 8.5 million.

Still, these are excuses, my only defence was that I was a newbie at the time. I was the ignorant one. Good Find, I hope I don't sound like as much of a p****-face anymore.

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Man GT5 smashes that attach rate arguement. 10.66 million shipped (will get sold) on a system which will likely sell 90 million units lifetime. That's about a what 13% attach rate? New record for a GT game.

Anyway, this is picture proof why attach rate arguements fail.....

except Mario Kart for consoles does always sell about a 3rd as many units as system available (MK Wii - 31/100 ~ 31%, MK DD - 7/21 ~ 33%, MK 64 - 10/32 ~30%)

LOL making an image for me aren't you?

NOOO!!!!! Seece!!!! I just realized that I haven't heard from him in a while. He always made such great threads which compared YoY sales for the Holiday season, and asked people to make predictions.

Didn't he have Writer Status too? I want that...

I love these old threads

Yes, I agree with you 100%. If I read a comment like this now, I would be thinking "red flags" all over. Attach Rates say nothing.

pezus said: spurgeonryan said: Someday I hope to bump a prediction from Pezus that is wrong.... You will probably find quite a few. However, I try not to shit on everybody else and call them fanboys and/or ignorant just because they predict differently. The difference between me and some people in here is that I know that predictions are just predictions and they can be very very wrong.

I think we've all made bad predictions. If any of us really digged, we could find dirt on each other. Anybody who tries to justify that they understand the market better then any of the more knowledgeable users on this forum is just pulling a Michael Patchner.

pezus, is English not your first language?

I know a while back, some of your posts felt like you were trying to convince a view, but you're not like that anymore. As you can blatently see I used to really lack an understanding of how games sell, and I'm sure all of us joined VGC with little knowledge of how games sell.

Yes GT5 will still sell less than the others. And we know GT5 hasn't outsold reach yet because there are at least 2m digital sales, putting it around 11m

It won't sell more than 3 and 4, that's a decline.

And we know the fable reach digital bundle sold at least 1.2-1.3 m. So 500-750 k other digital sales would be doable

You think PS3 will sell over 100 million consoles? Why?

I'm curious because in mid 2010 I also thought Wii would sell closer to PS2 figures (Wii was around 80 million at the time, just clearing 17 million in 2010), but then sales crashed, and now that Wii U is out, it's basically dead. You might be right though, PS1, PS2, and PSP all have pretty long and fat tails, PS2 sold what 50 million units after being replaced? Why can't PS3 sell 20 million after being replaced?

Still, late this gen, so many shocking trends for me. If PS3 does eventually outsell the Wii worldwide, well....then I'm going to give up on console predictions.