something could come out tomorrow that completely destroys all three game companies (or their gaming divisions).  things like this can happen...stuff coming out of nowhere and becoming "the" thing to own.

yeah, a video game machine that feeds you, so you don't have to get up and feed yourself O.o

Or an alien race bent on our destruction, or an asteroid, or pulsar, or a gamma ray burst...

I wanted to congrats you on your post too.  Amazing that some new members that hardly post have better insight and knowledge than regulars.  Graphics power isn't everything which you clearly stated.  It takes a healthy combination from many areas for a video game console to be successful.

Well, no company is invincible.  In fact, when they're at their highest success is typically when a company loses their way and drives a few hefty nails into their own coffin.  That said, I think that the company most likely to kill Nintendo--would be Nintendo. 

Now, I'm not saying it's going to happen.  Nintendo has routinely been recognized for their extremely smart business practices over the years.  Even during the GameCube era, and if they can be recognized for their smart business practices during that, then they clearly know how to run a business. 

The reason I go with Nintendo as their primary threat is because it seems rare for a company to just be killed by another.  Competition with other companies may make things stressful, but it's ultimately the decisions of the company (we're talking about, I guess, Nintendo) that determine it's future.

Look at WorldCom or Enron or those over-large conglomerates.  They killed themselves.  And ultimately, in the world of video games, Atari and Sega killed themselves (where console manufacterers are concerned).  In fact, internal decisions at Atari so violated every facet of that company that it can hardly be considered the same company these days.  It's there in name alone; after so many mergers, sales, buy-outs, and changes in management.

 Sega followed the other idea I laid out--that they were at the top of their game, and then fucked everything up.  Instead of handling competition from the SNES smoothly, they went bonkers and thrust the Sega CD and 32X on the market, which only served to drive gamers further from the Genesis.  Eventually, this led to enough bad decsions that the Saturn was launched early--pissing off just about everybody, and then they gradually lost more fan support, more third party support, and eventually money. 

Nintendo's biggest threat is easily Nintendo.  Luckily, they seem to be doing okay.

miyamoto could!

it was so obvious?

Any company can lose its way, and customer preferences can change.   Who knows what the future holds here?  I can't say.  Nintendo is in a strong spot, top dog in handhelds AND home at this point.

Tradition is both Nintendo's best friend and worst enemy. For example, old school gamers love New Super Mario Bros. Wii, but equally, there are a lot of gamers who think that it is a lazy port with uninspiring graphics from the DS. New Super Mario Bros. Wii exemplifies how Nintendo can simultaneously catalyze it's older, fanboy base to pick up a Nintendo console again, while turning off the younger gamers who have grown up loving different franchises such as Halo, Call of Duty, Fable and on.

Nintendo needs new blood and the old lions have to give way to the new lions. Nintendo does not seem to get that Shigeru Miyamoto is way past his prime and Miyamoto making games for the next 10 years would be equivalent and just as sad as watching Michael Jordan make a third comeback in his early 50s to win a 7th title.

Knowing the reverence Japanese culture has for tradition and elders, I am sure they will be trotting out Shigeru Miyamoto in a wheel chair when the time comes. Pathetic really, but hey it is Japan and not America.

With the DS and the Wii, Nintendo is finally creating a new fanbase again, bringing in people new to gaming.  The last time they did that was with the Game Boy Color when Pokemon created a gigantic pack of frothing young nerds tryin' to catch 'em all.  And of course, Ocarina of Time crated more fanboys. 

The difference is that now it's people attracted by casual waggle games rather than addictive RPG's. 

Nintendo does need to appeal to the older fans in smarter ways than with lazy new titles simply duplicating once-successful formulas with barely improved graphics (i.e. Donkey Kong Country Returns, New Super Mario Bros) and straight remakes of past glories (StarFox64, Ocarina of Time).  There are ways to appeal to classic fans (such as myself) while keeping things fresh enough to entice new gamers.  I got bored with Zelda years ago when I came to realize that Nintendo was unlikely to ever expand the formula or try something new aside from some kind of different graphical style.  So they either beat a successful formula into a bloody pulp (like Zelda) or they move backwards with straight duplication of old titles. 

I have to say, Kirby's Epic Yarn seems to be doing things right.  It's gorgeous, it's inventive, it's unique, and it's giving us a new title for a classic, well-loved character.  That'll appeal to older fans, and is creative enough to snag the attention of newbs. 

The Nintendo Age is near...remember?