Oh, you did indeed!

I ended up noting your note about Wii Fit possibly being knocked out of the top 10. That actually seems possible. Wii Sports Resort and New Super Mario Bros. Wii passing it are obvious ones, but I'm not sure what else might. Black Ops and Wii Fit Plus might be the only contenders.

I think the top 10 for the generation is quite set by now. Which is 5th and which is 7th isn't that obvious, but there are only around 12 games or so that realistically can make it. Wii Sports obviously takes the top spot, then 2nd to 4th spot could be New Super Mario Bros. Wii, Wii Sports Resort or Wii Play. Then we're most likely going to see Mario Kart Wii, but there's still a bit of a chance that it will beat Wii Sports Resort or New Super Mario Bros. Wii. Which is really quite interesting, I'd say the top 5 is very likely to be all Wii. And all 30 million plus.

Then New Super Mario Bros. DS seems a pretty obvious 6th place, with 28 million or something.

Then either Wii Fit, Wii Fit Plus or Black Ops I'd personally say Black Ops > Wii Fit > Wii Fit Plus seems the most likely, but I'm not really sure.

Then Mario Kart DS, and then Modern Warfare 2 just in front of Brain Training, which will be the 11th best selling game of the generation, and the last one to sell 20 million.

There's really nothing else upcoming that I see having a chance of getting up into the 20 million range. Other than the 3DS games, but they're disqualified for being 8th generation games.

Edit:

Oh! Pokemon Black and White could stand a chance, I suppose. It's looking at 5 million in Japan alone, quite a bit higher than Diamond/Pearl which saw only 3.5 million.

Pokemon games sell for a long while. I think Black and White is going to be marketed as a game to buy with your 3DS, even though it's a DS game. I don't think there's going to be another Pokemon game for a while, as Heart Gold/Soul Silver was recently released too. I'd say Black and White is likely to be the last major selling DS game, and it stands every chance of making 20 million.

Do not forget Nintendogs, sir. Forgetting Nintendogs has been one of the easiest things to do this gen.

Being a Pokemon fan, I have to point out your inaccuracies, :P. Pokemon DP sold 6m in Japan, not 3.5m. Pokemon BW still stands a chance of topping it there, however, since even though DP has been considerably higher launch aligned for the past ~5 weeks and will continue to do so for another ~5 weeks most likely, Pokemon BW had a far higher launch (2.6m vs 1.6m). Because of this, it is still tracking hugely above Pokemon DP. If it can hold at 30k-40k per week after the holidays, it can still be ahead of DP marginally and even be the best selling DS game in Japan. If the 3DS gives it a significant boost, it could easily end up in the 6.5m-7m range. I'd figure that Pokemon BW could do significantly higher than DP in the West as it is very likely that it'll launch in the same week as the 3DS, giving it the best opportunity to atttach itself to this new userbase.

Anyway, on topic, I love the list! Can't wait for the next update in Jan/Feb, :D.

Ah, thanks. I've been making this mistake for ages now. The 10 week numbers are above the lifetime numbers on all the games, so I read that instead of the total one. Thanks for pointing out the error.

Khuutra said:

Do not forget Nintendogs, sir. Forgetting Nintendogs has been one of the easiest things to do this gen.

Yikes! I forgot to write down Nintendogs. It was there in my head, but then I forgot it. Thanks for pointing that out

1. Wii Sports - Ridiculously high number
2. Wii Sports Resort/Wii Play/New Super Mario Bros. Wii -  30-40 million
5. Mario Kart Wii - 30-35 million
6. New Super Mario Bros. DS - ~ 28 million
7. Nintendogs - ~ 25 million
8. Wii Fit/Black Ops/Wii Fit Plus/Mario Kart DS - 20-24 million
12. Brain Training/Modern Warfare 2 - ~ 20 million

Something like that seems the most likely.

Why do you suppose WSR will stall out in the 30-40m region? I doubt it'll be replaced as the main Wii SKU next year and Wii is definitely gonna sell more than 25m from now on. Also, Wii Play's pretty much stalled out; I seriously doubt it'll achieve 30m. MKWii, on the other hand, should make it. I doubt it'll be too much behind NSMBW in the long run. Also, it's rather unlikely that NSMB DS will stop at around
28m. Since the 3DS is backwards compatible, it should have decent legs till NSMB 3DS and cross the 30m barrier. Also, Wii Fit Plus should be considerably higher than Wii Fit since Wii Fit Resort does not seem to be on the horizon. MKDS and BO I believe you're overestimating; the former has only recently picked up slightly and already has a sequel anounced and the latter will probably have relatively weak legs due to franchise fatigue. Also, considering that MW2 is already past 20m and is still selling decently, I have doubts that it'll stop before 25m. Finally, I gave you a long and biased lecture about how Pokemon BW is gonna crush Pokemon DP yet you still put it below 20m!? If it lucks out and follows my ridiculous trend, it could end up tied with Nintendogs, :P.

I started making that list and then realised that the date was a different one than I thought it was, and that I had to leave immediately, so I just rushed it done based on what I'd already said. It's obviously quite off.

You have a lot of good points here.  I'll just adress them from the start.

Your point about Wii Play is quite interesting. I didn't know how poorly it was doing. Anything above 32 million is absolutely out of the question. I disagree with your comment about it not reaching 30 million, though. It's 2.2 million off 30 million, and it seems to be steadying at 130k per 6 weeks or so. It should do a fair bit more than that this Christmas, I'd say 400k-500k (it sold ~ 750k last year, after having sold 210k in roughly the span it sold 130k this year) for the rest of the year seems likely. That puts it at a bit over 1.7 million left to sell. It should do that.

So roughly 30 million is a fairer estimate for Wii Play.

I don't quite agree with your reasoning for Wii Sports Resort. It's bundled with a fair amount of Wiis, but it's not bundled with all of them. Just look at this week's numbers; Wii Sports Resort is at half of Wii Sports (which is all non-Japan Wiis), and that's including people who bought it without a Wii. The amount of people who buy Wii Sports Resort alone should be at least as large as the amount of people buying Mario Kart Wii, so that means that really, just 1/3 Wiis come with Wii Sports Resort. And that's without the Mario Kart Wii bundle, which I believe doesn't include Wii Sports Resort. The number is going to be 1/3 through most of next year, I believe, and anything after that is highly uncertain, there's absolutely no guarantee of Wii Sports Resort still being bundled.

Now, the Wii is looking at somewhere around 40 million more sales.  A third of that is 13 million. As a standalone title, Wii Sports Resort is now looking at Mario Kart Wii sales, and it's going to nosedive far quicker (due to new buyers not buying Wii Sports Resort, as they already get it). 7 million or so seems a fair guess to me.

That puts it at 20 million more, or 40 million in total. So I suppose you have a point; 35-45 million is a better assumption.

 Now, New Super Mario Bros. Wii is selling far better standalone than Wii Sports Resort, but it's also going to get less bundling. Still, I think assuming that it's going to produce near Wii Sports Resort numbers is likely. I'd say 35-45 million for that too, as either could really end above the other.

Mario Kart Wii is quite clearly in the 30-35 million range.

New Super Mario Bros. DS is virtually tied with Mario Kart Wii now. It's going to see similar sales, but it's going to die off a bit sooner, due to less DSs being sold. The 3DS releases with so many great games that I'm not sure the backwards compatibility will help New Super Mario Bros DS that much (though it obviously will). Anyway, 30-32 million, or something ala that seems fine, I suppose.

Modern Warfare 2 has no chance at 25 million across Ps360. It's at 50k/week now, and it's going to dive to less than 10k/week after the holidays. Modern Warfare was, after 2 years, selling equally well as Modern Warfare 2 now is, after just one year. It only sold 1.4 million after Modern Warfare 2 launched. I think similar numbers should be expected for MW2, although possibly a tad higher. So 22-23 million for Modern Warfare 2, I guess.

Mario Kart DS isn't in the 20-24 million range either. It's at 19 million already, and should be just a tad below 20 million at the end of the year. It's selling at half of NSMB DS levels, so I'd say  22-25 million is a far better estimate.

Pokemon Black/White could very well do higher numbers than Diamond/Pearl, but I'm not sure by how much. It's likely to see somewhat lower legs, as it's a game on an outdated platform. While there's backwards compability, it being on an outdated platform is likely to hurt it's staying power. It could very well end up there, but it could also very well not.

Would you be happier with this list?

1. Wii Sports - Loads
2. Wii Sports Resort - 35-45 million
3. New Super Mario Bros. Wii - 35-45 million
4. Mario Kart Wii - 30-35 million
5. New Super Mario Bros. DS - 30-32 million
6. Wii Play - 30 million
7. Nintendogs - 25 million
8. Mario Kart DS - 22-25 million
9. Modern Warfare 2 - 22-23 million
9. Wii Fit - 22.5-23 million
11. Black Ops/Wii Fit Plus - 20-25 million

x Pokemon Black/White - 17-25 million

Oh, yeah, that was stupid of me. Didn't check Wii Play's weekly sales. Yeah, then, I guess, it should make 30m (though its legs could be completely killed off 'cause of Wii Party).

For now, we have no indication as to whether or not the other bundles will remain after holidays (though, for Wii sales, they probably should). If they don't, WSR is pretty much gonna replicate Wii Sports numbers from now on.

NSMB DS, I'm not so sure I agree with you. I mean, honestly, if there's any DS title 3DS owners are gonna buy, it'll be NSMB, more likely than not. Also, the DS has a large enough base that doesn't have NSMB yet to sell to. Its legs could probably stay till it reaches a saturation point on the DS base. Finally, the DS probably won't be slowing down anytime soon. The GBA sold 1/3 of its units after DS release. DS probably won't do quite as much, but it should hold on enough on the budgeted people who can't buy 3DS.

For MW2, well, I really need to do my research, xD. You're probably right on that one. Same goes for MKDS, I guess.

Pokemon BW is obviously mostly my fantasy, but you never know, :D.

So you think that New Super Mario Bros. DS stands a fair chance of beating Mario Kart Wii, then?

Well, depends on when New Super Mario World 3DS is announced/released, really.

Okay, the Mario Kart Wii bundle had an immense effect in Europe. Mario Kart Wii doubled its sales from 93k to 181k this week. Mario Kart Wii outsold New Super Mario Bros. Wii there this month (by 2k). It's up 35% year on year in Europe.

It also outsold New Super Mario Bros. Wii in Japan this week, by 1k. I don't think there's even a bundle for MKWii there, so that's kind of strange.

And it's barely down YoY in Americas - where there's definitely no bundle - by 6.4%.

Worldwide, it's up 14% year on year. If this stays out the year, that means MKWii will sell 1.8 million from here on out. That's possible, I'd say ~ 1.5 million (down 10% YoY) seems likely. So 25.5 million by year's end, or so.

The EMEAA numbers also seem to signal that Mario Kart Wii will sell as much - if not more - than New Super Mario Bros. Wii will from here on out in EMEAA. The gap in Japan is also going to be in the 10,000s only from here on out.

What this essentially means is that New Super Mario Bros. Wii will have to sell 5.6 million more than Mario Kart Wii will in Americas. Or in other words, somewhere around 20 million in Americas alone (Mario Kart Wii is currently at 10.6 million, and should sell a couple of million more).

I don't think it's going to do that much.

So twisting the argument, I'd say that New Super Mario Bros. Wii looks like it won't outsell Mario Kart Wii. This is mainly because Mario Kart Wii seems to be selling a lot more than 30 million, but also because New Super Mario Bros. Wii is doing a lot worse in EMEAA than I thought it did.