Okay, the Mario Kart Wii bundle had an immense effect in Europe. Mario Kart Wii doubled its sales from 93k to 181k this week. Mario Kart Wii outsold New Super Mario Bros. Wii there this month (by 2k). It's up 35% year on year in Europe.
It also outsold New Super Mario Bros. Wii in Japan this week, by 1k. I don't think there's even a bundle for MKWii there, so that's kind of strange.
And it's barely down YoY in Americas - where there's definitely no bundle - by 6.4%.
Worldwide, it's up 14% year on year. If this stays out the year, that means MKWii will sell 1.8 million from here on out. That's possible, I'd say ~ 1.5 million (down 10% YoY) seems likely. So 25.5 million by year's end, or so.
The EMEAA numbers also seem to signal that Mario Kart Wii will sell as much - if not more - than New Super Mario Bros. Wii will from here on out in EMEAA. The gap in Japan is also going to be in the 10,000s only from here on out.
What this essentially means is that New Super Mario Bros. Wii will have to sell 5.6 million more than Mario Kart Wii will in Americas. Or in other words, somewhere around 20 million in Americas alone (Mario Kart Wii is currently at 10.6 million, and should sell a couple of million more).
I don't think it's going to do that much.
So twisting the argument, I'd say that New Super Mario Bros. Wii looks like it won't outsell Mario Kart Wii. This is mainly because Mario Kart Wii seems to be selling a lot more than 30 million, but also because New Super Mario Bros. Wii is doing a lot worse in EMEAA than I thought it did.
