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Forums - Sales - Pacher Explains Why He Predicts WiiHD Believes Will Will Lose MarketShare

iasta said:

Iwata and Reggie had already states that HD is not enough for their next console. They are likely to had other tricks.

Natal and move are counter attacks for the disru[ption of the wii mote, but Nintendo is already away with a new device: the vitality sensor. if they can nailed it with SW as Wii sports for the wii mote and Wii fit for the balance board, they will continue to difference themself even more.


Last for the online, looking at Iwata investor's conference, it seems to be important to Nintendo and they will likely improve and widened that (maybe 3G for the 3DS... who knows). They seems concerned to push customers to go online (wifi point at Mc Donald in Japan, connect program in europe)

The longer Nintendo holds off on releasing current hardware with HD compatibility, the truer this claim becomes.

It could have been feasible for Nintendo to release an up-specced version of the Wii with HDMI output, an updated GPU and CPU, additional RAM/VRAM for about the same asking price as the original Wii ($250), fully compatible with current games only at 1920x1080p render resolutions. It would essentially work like Wii emulators for the PC, without the overhead emulation requires, meaning it would run smoother than PC emulators, even operating on high end builds.

Nintendo has already done this before with the DS, but for the Wii, it would likely result in lower margins per unit, with the only key feature being HDMI/1080p output. Not enough to get the casual consumer to upgrade, and not enough capture significantly more marketshare than current.

The longer they hold off on their next console update, the more likely it is that Nintendo will try to move in a different direction with the two most likely features to remain motion controls of some sort and improved network connectivity and services.

I'm not under the impression that the Vitality Sensor qualifies as any sort of game changer at all. We'll see what games they have at E3, but it's been pretty quiet since last year's announcement and most of the game support may fall into the category of supplementary usage, meaning optional.

While it may not necessarily be another Wii Music, it may just fall into the category of another fun experiment from Nintendo that many existing users will enjoy. Hardly redefining.



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greenmedic88 said:
iasta said:

Iwata and Reggie had already states that HD is not enough for their next console. They are likely to had other tricks.

Natal and move are counter attacks for the disru[ption of the wii mote, but Nintendo is already away with a new device: the vitality sensor. if they can nailed it with SW as Wii sports for the wii mote and Wii fit for the balance board, they will continue to difference themself even more.


Last for the online, looking at Iwata investor's conference, it seems to be important to Nintendo and they will likely improve and widened that (maybe 3G for the 3DS... who knows). They seems concerned to push customers to go online (wifi point at Mc Donald in Japan, connect program in europe)

The longer Nintendo holds off on releasing current hardware with HD compatibility, the truer this claim becomes.

It could have been feasible for Nintendo to release an up-specced version of the Wii with HDMI output, an updated GPU and CPU, additional RAM/VRAM for about the same asking price as the original Wii ($250), fully compatible with current games only at 1920x1080p render resolutions. It would essentially work like Wii emulators for the PC, without the overhead emulation requires, meaning it would run smoother than PC emulators, even operating on high end builds.

Nintendo has already done this before with the DS, but for the Wii, it would likely result in lower margins per unit, with the only key feature being HDMI/1080p output. Not enough to get the casual consumer to upgrade, and not enough capture significantly more marketshare than current.

The longer they hold off on their next console update, the more likely it is that Nintendo will try to move in a different direction with the two most likely features to remain motion controls of some sort and improved network connectivity and services.

I'm not under the impression that the Vitality Sensor qualifies as any sort of game changer at all. We'll see what games they have at E3, but it's been pretty quiet since last year's announcement and most of the game support may fall into the category of supplementary usage, meaning optional.

While it may not necessarily be another Wii Music, it may just fall into the category of another fun experiment from Nintendo that many existing users will enjoy. Hardly redefining.

No Vitality sensor is more of a Wii bord thing. Creating a periferal that is simply none existent in the market and many may view as revolutinary. its part of there expanded costumers plan. 

Its the inovation branch of Nintneod at work. Personally I think it will not work as well as the Bord but only time can tell.

See when you look at Nintendo you have to ask yourself what kind of skill they have as a company.Like what kind of branch's or wing's do they have. And why they have that.

Nintendo has a big advantage over the 2 other cause it is the only honest driven of the 3. and this is why

Sony are there to push TV's and Blueray lisences. so its not really in the industry of gaming to make Good games of fun games. thats really not a honest motive from start.

MS well i know the least of all as iv always hated MS but i think there just in this market to recover lost from there PC stuff losing market share from Consule's

Nintendo is the only Compny thats honestly there to make money off of good games and thats what Gaming is all about. 

 

 

Sure Sony and MS have good games on there systems but the motive of thos games and the company behind is to do something compleatly un-related to making gaming better or more fun  for everyone. yes in the end thats wat they need to do , but are not as motivated to do so then Nintendo in general.

 

Got a bit side tracked but ya.

If you understand this you will know why I support Nintendo more then the others. Cause i know what there motive is and i like it.



Albion said:
greenmedic88 said:
iasta said:

Iwata and Reggie had already states that HD is not enough for their next console. They are likely to had other tricks.

Natal and move are counter attacks for the disru[ption of the wii mote, but Nintendo is already away with a new device: the vitality sensor. if they can nailed it with SW as Wii sports for the wii mote and Wii fit for the balance board, they will continue to difference themself even more.


Last for the online, looking at Iwata investor's conference, it seems to be important to Nintendo and they will likely improve and widened that (maybe 3G for the 3DS... who knows). They seems concerned to push customers to go online (wifi point at Mc Donald in Japan, connect program in europe)

The longer Nintendo holds off on releasing current hardware with HD compatibility, the truer this claim becomes.

It could have been feasible for Nintendo to release an up-specced version of the Wii with HDMI output, an updated GPU and CPU, additional RAM/VRAM for about the same asking price as the original Wii ($250), fully compatible with current games only at 1920x1080p render resolutions. It would essentially work like Wii emulators for the PC, without the overhead emulation requires, meaning it would run smoother than PC emulators, even operating on high end builds.

Nintendo has already done this before with the DS, but for the Wii, it would likely result in lower margins per unit, with the only key feature being HDMI/1080p output. Not enough to get the casual consumer to upgrade, and not enough capture significantly more marketshare than current.

The longer they hold off on their next console update, the more likely it is that Nintendo will try to move in a different direction with the two most likely features to remain motion controls of some sort and improved network connectivity and services.

I'm not under the impression that the Vitality Sensor qualifies as any sort of game changer at all. We'll see what games they have at E3, but it's been pretty quiet since last year's announcement and most of the game support may fall into the category of supplementary usage, meaning optional.

While it may not necessarily be another Wii Music, it may just fall into the category of another fun experiment from Nintendo that many existing users will enjoy. Hardly redefining.

No Vitality sensor is more of a Wii bord thing. Creating a periferal that is simply none existent in the market and many may view as revolutinary. its part of there expanded costumers plan. 

Its the inovation branch of Nintneod at work. Personally I think it will not work as well as the Bord but only time can tell.

See when you look at Nintendo you have to ask yourself what kind of skill they have as a company.Like what kind of branch's or wing's do they have. And why they have that.

Nintendo has a big advantage over the 2 other cause it is the only honest driven of the 3. and this is why

Sony are there to push TV's and Blueray lisences. so its not really in the industry of gaming to make Good games of fun games. thats really not a honest motive from start.

MS well i know the least of all as iv always hated MS but i think there just in this market to recover lost from there PC stuff losing market share from Consule's

Nintendo is the only Compny thats honestly there to make money off of good games and thats what Gaming is all about. 

 

 

Sure Sony and MS have good games on there systems but the motive of thos games and the company behind is to do something compleatly un-related to making gaming better or more fun  for everyone. yes in the end thats wat they need to do , but are not as motivated to do so then Nintendo in general.

 

Got a bit side tracked but ya.

If you understand this you will know why I support Nintendo more then the others. Cause i know what there motive is and i like it.

Saying SONY isn't honest is kinda like saying Naught Dog isn't honest.


I think it comes down to market analysis. Nintendo's was spot on. The other's focused on their values which were high end gaming machines.



silicon said:
Albion said:
greenmedic88 said:
iasta said:

Iwata and Reggie had already states that HD is not enough for their next console. They are likely to had other tricks.

Natal and move are counter attacks for the disru[ption of the wii mote, but Nintendo is already away with a new device: the vitality sensor. if they can nailed it with SW as Wii sports for the wii mote and Wii fit for the balance board, they will continue to difference themself even more.


Last for the online, looking at Iwata investor's conference, it seems to be important to Nintendo and they will likely improve and widened that (maybe 3G for the 3DS... who knows). They seems concerned to push customers to go online (wifi point at Mc Donald in Japan, connect program in europe)

The longer Nintendo holds off on releasing current hardware with HD compatibility, the truer this claim becomes.

It could have been feasible for Nintendo to release an up-specced version of the Wii with HDMI output, an updated GPU and CPU, additional RAM/VRAM for about the same asking price as the original Wii ($250), fully compatible with current games only at 1920x1080p render resolutions. It would essentially work like Wii emulators for the PC, without the overhead emulation requires, meaning it would run smoother than PC emulators, even operating on high end builds.

Nintendo has already done this before with the DS, but for the Wii, it would likely result in lower margins per unit, with the only key feature being HDMI/1080p output. Not enough to get the casual consumer to upgrade, and not enough capture significantly more marketshare than current.

The longer they hold off on their next console update, the more likely it is that Nintendo will try to move in a different direction with the two most likely features to remain motion controls of some sort and improved network connectivity and services.

I'm not under the impression that the Vitality Sensor qualifies as any sort of game changer at all. We'll see what games they have at E3, but it's been pretty quiet since last year's announcement and most of the game support may fall into the category of supplementary usage, meaning optional.

While it may not necessarily be another Wii Music, it may just fall into the category of another fun experiment from Nintendo that many existing users will enjoy. Hardly redefining.

No Vitality sensor is more of a Wii bord thing. Creating a periferal that is simply none existent in the market and many may view as revolutinary. its part of there expanded costumers plan. 

Its the inovation branch of Nintneod at work. Personally I think it will not work as well as the Bord but only time can tell.

See when you look at Nintendo you have to ask yourself what kind of skill they have as a company.Like what kind of branch's or wing's do they have. And why they have that.

Nintendo has a big advantage over the 2 other cause it is the only honest driven of the 3. and this is why

Sony are there to push TV's and Blueray lisences. so its not really in the industry of gaming to make Good games of fun games. thats really not a honest motive from start.

MS well i know the least of all as iv always hated MS but i think there just in this market to recover lost from there PC stuff losing market share from Consule's

Nintendo is the only Compny thats honestly there to make money off of good games and thats what Gaming is all about. 

 

 

Sure Sony and MS have good games on there systems but the motive of thos games and the company behind is to do something compleatly un-related to making gaming better or more fun  for everyone. yes in the end thats wat they need to do , but are not as motivated to do so then Nintendo in general.

 

Got a bit side tracked but ya.

If you understand this you will know why I support Nintendo more then the others. Cause i know what there motive is and i like it.

Saying SONY isn't honest is kinda like saying Naught Dog isn't honest.


I think it comes down to market analysis. Nintendo's was spot on. The other's focused on their values which were high end gaming machines.

High end machines to land them money they lost or money they can make from TV's and Bluerays. Gaming platform is just a side thing to help them in it.

They are not honestly Gaming companys. they are gaming company because of other facts.

Nintendo is Honestly a Gaming Company and it has been so for a few hundred years. (Card games)

So honest or dishonest in that sense



greenmedic88 said:

The longer Nintendo holds off on releasing current hardware with HD compatibility, the truer this claim becomes.

It could have been feasible for Nintendo to release an up-specced version of the Wii with HDMI output, an updated GPU and CPU, additional RAM/VRAM for about the same asking price as the original Wii ($250), fully compatible with current games only at 1920x1080p render resolutions. It would essentially work like Wii emulators for the PC, without the overhead emulation requires, meaning it would run smoother than PC emulators, even operating on high end builds.

Nintendo has already done this before with the DS, but for the Wii, it would likely result in lower margins per unit, with the only key feature being HDMI/1080p output. Not enough to get the casual consumer to upgrade, and not enough capture significantly more marketshare than current.

The longer they hold off on their next console update, the more likely it is that Nintendo will try to move in a different direction with the two most likely features to remain motion controls of some sort and improved network connectivity and services.

I'm not under the impression that the Vitality Sensor qualifies as any sort of game changer at all. We'll see what games they have at E3, but it's been pretty quiet since last year's announcement and most of the game support may fall into the category of supplementary usage, meaning optional.

While it may not necessarily be another Wii Music, it may just fall into the category of another fun experiment from Nintendo that many existing users will enjoy. Hardly redefining.

Releasing an updated Wii HD with a native resolution of 1080P would be quite frankly a waste of their time. Pixels for the most part are over-rated given the fact that they would see much more benefit increasing the per pixel effects than increasing the number of pixels rendered to 4-5* the current Wii output. Most of the changes would go above the head of their own userbase. They would be far better off releasing a significantly faster replacement Wii and using that to really WOW the socks off a userbase which has been subsisting on progressive scan Xbox 1 level graphics at twice the frame rate.

They will of course release a Wii 2 or whatever they want to call it with more performance than is currently available on the systems today. I think its par for the course to expect that. That won't be their only improvement but its a start and its a good position to be in especially if Sony/Microsoft hold onto their systems for a few more years. The hardcore are the people with itchy feet so getting out first with a more powerful system will instantly give them a more balanced game ecosystem which they failed to get in this generation.

The CPU I pick for them is a fusion AMD based system. They can easily wedge 2-4 cores and 160-480 stream processors into a space which will be smaller than the Xbox 360 CPU with a narrower and cheaper memory bus which is attached to 64bit 4x 16bit 2Gbit @7Gbps (1GB) GDDR5 (50GB/S) inbuilt 16-32GB flash and a slimline 4 speed Blu Ray drive for $249. Its neat and simply and yet doesn't break their design parameters whilst giving them excellent power and performance attributes. Furthermore they don't have to tell developers about it until the year of release because all software would be easily portable to their system anyway. Every developer is familiar with X86 development and all developers have X86 development PCs.  



Tease.

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One of the things I think Pachter (and a lot of people) missed with their "WiiHD" predictions was that there is a very small window where it is a intelligent business decision; and even then the right market conditions have to be in place to go forward with that strategy. Basically, you’d have to be near the mid-point of a generation and starting to struggle because your system is lacking a feature that is deemed important by most gamers; and you need to be able to release an enhanced system that includes this feature, games are compatible with both versions of your system, and people are either willing to upgrade to your new system or are satisfied with your current version.

At this point in the generation, the best approach for Nintendo (or any of the console manufacturers) is to focus on their next generation console and to use quality software,  bundles, and price reductions to keep demand high to release your new hardware on a reasonable timeline. While I wouldn't anticipate Nintendo doing this, or needing to do this, I would imagine it would be more realistic for them to sell the Wii bundled with 2 controllers and 2 games for $99 than to release a new home console before Q4 2011; or for them to release a modified Wii that outputs at HD resolutions.



http://wii.nintendolife.com/news/2010/06/hands_on_vdigi_vd_w3_wii_hdmi_upscaler

 

Oh there we go

A gizmo that cleans up the wii if you have a HD TV



Squilliam said:
greenmedic88 said:

The longer Nintendo holds off on releasing current hardware with HD compatibility, the truer this claim becomes.

It could have been feasible for Nintendo to release an up-specced version of the Wii with HDMI output, an updated GPU and CPU, additional RAM/VRAM for about the same asking price as the original Wii ($250), fully compatible with current games only at 1920x1080p render resolutions. It would essentially work like Wii emulators for the PC, without the overhead emulation requires, meaning it would run smoother than PC emulators, even operating on high end builds.

Nintendo has already done this before with the DS, but for the Wii, it would likely result in lower margins per unit, with the only key feature being HDMI/1080p output. Not enough to get the casual consumer to upgrade, and not enough capture significantly more marketshare than current.

The longer they hold off on their next console update, the more likely it is that Nintendo will try to move in a different direction with the two most likely features to remain motion controls of some sort and improved network connectivity and services.

I'm not under the impression that the Vitality Sensor qualifies as any sort of game changer at all. We'll see what games they have at E3, but it's been pretty quiet since last year's announcement and most of the game support may fall into the category of supplementary usage, meaning optional.

While it may not necessarily be another Wii Music, it may just fall into the category of another fun experiment from Nintendo that many existing users will enjoy. Hardly redefining.

Releasing an updated Wii HD with a native resolution of 1080P would be quite frankly a waste of their time. Pixels for the most part are over-rated given the fact that they would see much more benefit increasing the per pixel effects than increasing the number of pixels rendered to 4-5* the current Wii output. Most of the changes would go above the head of their own userbase. They would be far better off releasing a significantly faster replacement Wii and using that to really WOW the socks off a userbase which has been subsisting on progressive scan Xbox 1 level graphics at twice the frame rate.

They will of course release a Wii 2 or whatever they want to call it with more performance than is currently available on the systems today. I think its par for the course to expect that. That won't be their only improvement but its a start and its a good position to be in especially if Sony/Microsoft hold onto their systems for a few more years. The hardcore are the people with itchy feet so getting out first with a more powerful system will instantly give them a more balanced game ecosystem which they failed to get in this generation.

The CPU I pick for them is a fusion AMD based system. They can easily wedge 2-4 cores and 160-480 stream processors into a space which will be smaller than the Xbox 360 CPU with a narrower and cheaper memory bus which is attached to 64bit 4x 16bit 2Gbit @7Gbps (1GB) GDDR5 (50GB/S) inbuilt 16-32GB flash and a slimline 4 speed Blu Ray drive for $249. Its neat and simply and yet doesn't break their design parameters whilst giving them excellent power and performance attributes. Furthermore they don't have to tell developers about it until the year of release because all software would be easily portable to their system anyway. Every developer is familiar with X86 development and all developers have X86 development PCs.  

You essentially described in greater detail what I already mentioned, only you went into specific guesses/recommendations on hardware specs.

Of course, the more specific one gets when it comes to predicting these sort of things, typically means being further off from actual product specifications without legit insider information.

I'll be surprised if Nintendo uses BD format for their next system as they have always gone with proprietary formats of their own design.

Besides, as it's already been suggested, the window of opportunity for releasing an updated Wii mid-cycle is relatively small, meaning Nintendo's next console is more likely to extend beyond Mighty Impressive Hardware Specs and will end up offering gamers something creatively new and different at a reasonable asking price while simultaneously being profitable on Day 1.

But, any such hypothetical console would be an all new platform with the only likely ties to the Wii being backwards compatibility and more motion controls of some sort.



greenmedic88 said:
Squilliam said:

Releasing an updated Wii HD with a native resolution of 1080P would be quite frankly a waste of their time. Pixels for the most part are over-rated given the fact that they would see much more benefit increasing the per pixel effects than increasing the number of pixels rendered to 4-5* the current Wii output. Most of the changes would go above the head of their own userbase. They would be far better off releasing a significantly faster replacement Wii and using that to really WOW the socks off a userbase which has been subsisting on progressive scan Xbox 1 level graphics at twice the frame rate.

They will of course release a Wii 2 or whatever they want to call it with more performance than is currently available on the systems today. I think its par for the course to expect that. That won't be their only improvement but its a start and its a good position to be in especially if Sony/Microsoft hold onto their systems for a few more years. The hardcore are the people with itchy feet so getting out first with a more powerful system will instantly give them a more balanced game ecosystem which they failed to get in this generation.

The CPU I pick for them is a fusion AMD based system. They can easily wedge 2-4 cores and 160-480 stream processors into a space which will be smaller than the Xbox 360 CPU with a narrower and cheaper memory bus which is attached to 64bit 4x 16bit 2Gbit @7Gbps (1GB) GDDR5 (50GB/S) inbuilt 16-32GB flash and a slimline 4 speed Blu Ray drive for $249. Its neat and simply and yet doesn't break their design parameters whilst giving them excellent power and performance attributes. Furthermore they don't have to tell developers about it until the year of release because all software would be easily portable to their system anyway. Every developer is familiar with X86 development and all developers have X86 development PCs.  

You essentially described in greater detail what I already mentioned, only you went into specific guesses/recommendations on hardware specs.

Of course, the more specific one gets when it comes to predicting these sort of things, typically means being further off from actual product specifications without legit insider information.

I'll be surprised if Nintendo uses BD format for their next system as they have always gone with proprietary formats of their own design.

Besides, as it's already been suggested, the window of opportunity for releasing an updated Wii mid-cycle is relatively small, meaning Nintendo's next console is more likely to extend beyond Mighty Impressive Hardware Specs and will end up offering gamers something creatively new and different at a reasonable asking price while simultaneously being profitable on Day 1.

But, any such hypothetical console would be an all new platform with the only likely ties to the Wii being backwards compatibility and more motion controls of some sort.

My point was that it was never viable for them to release a part way updated Wii HD. The per pixel effects have always been and for the foreseeable future will be considerably more important than the number of pixels rendered. The people here who complain about things like that are only complaining because they first decide they want to poke their finger at something and its a convenient target to complain about as its measurable.

Lol, sorry I went into specifications because I love technology! It was my bad... I just wanted to offer up a rough guide as to what they might do with the physical hardware in a way which supports the three market development options of innovation, disruption and iteration on their existing design.





Tease.

greenmedic88 said:

I'll be surprised if Nintendo uses BD format for their next system as they have always gone with proprietary formats of their own design.

Using Blu-ray and having a proprietary format are not at odds with each other.  Gamecube & Wii both had customized proprietary formats, and both were DVD based.  

Considering Nintendo's always gone to Matsushita for their optical formats (they are NOT done inhouse), and Matsushita is currently the largest royalty holder in Blu-ray (ahead of Sony even), it's pretty easy to guess where Nintendo's going to turn next gen for partnership and technology...