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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Ex-Microsoft Studio Boss: 'Natal Will Fail'

BMaker11 said:

Rail shooter: Umbrella Chronicles. Wii Sports wannabe: Uhhh...Wii Sports. Punch Out wannabe: Uhhh..Punch Out*

*these all 'worked' for the Wii, so there's no contradiction in his statement

Umbrella Chronicles and Punch Out are barely million sellers on a console that has 2 times the userbase...



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Asmo said:
disolitude said:
 


That makes no sense. the only reason why shovelware exists is because userbase gets really large and extra dollars can be made on those quick and drity cash in games. There is no logic for anyone to release shovelware on Natal until it sells 20 million...

Since Natal will have a limited userbase for a while, the games coming out really need to be good.

If so, only MS will do games Natal exclusive. In this case, they will have to be damn good for Natal to have any success.

I'm sure MS will be happy if they can get 1-2 hit first aprty games per month for Natal... If they don't have some killer software, then Natal deserves to fail like the 32X did...

That strategy has done wonders for Nintendo as they manage to sell consoles based on first pary efforts alone.

 

 



disolitude said:

I'm sure MS will be happy if they can get 1-2 hit first aprty games per month for Natal... If they don't have some killer software, then Natal deserves to fail like the 32X did...

That strategy has done wonders for Nintendo as they manage to sell consoles based on first pary efforts alone.

 

 

We all know how weak MS 1st party is.... But we'll see.



badgenome said:
He's just butthurt that he's one letter away from being named after a shoe store.

not really, a lot of people wont state their real opinions on something their company does till they are fired or it fails on the market. Its as if no one in the corporate world has the balls to state what they feel about a business decision before hand.

 

I miss Crazy Ken, he was willing to tell it as he saw it. Probably one of the reasons he got canned. Same with Phil Harrison.



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Asmo said:
disolitude said:
 

I'm sure MS will be happy if they can get 1-2 hit first aprty games per month for Natal... If they don't have some killer software, then Natal deserves to fail like the 32X did...

That strategy has done wonders for Nintendo as they manage to sell consoles based on first pary efforts alone.

 

 

We all know how weak MS 1st party is.... But we'll see.


I don't think you need lots of studios or people to do amazing motion control titles. A small group of people that truly understand the capacity of the console could do a fun 2-3 games in a short time, showcasing what Natal can do...

Think about it, Natal has been showed over a year ago and back then it had a playable games (burnout, rocochet) and that paint demo. Nothing have we heard about it since... Someone must be workig on something over at MS, lol.



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Asmo said:
disolitude said:
 

I'm sure MS will be happy if they can get 1-2 hit first aprty games per month for Natal... If they don't have some killer software, then Natal deserves to fail like the 32X did...

That strategy has done wonders for Nintendo as they manage to sell consoles based on first pary efforts alone.

 

 

We all know how weak MS 1st party is.... But we'll see.


Really?

 

I rather think they have a strong 1st party...just waiting to be let loose...and well..natal could benifit greatly from em.

Your kindly forgetting what the 3rd party dev's have been saying..we all know how STRONG 3rd party support has been for 360...and how strong more than likely it will be for natal.

 

I'm expecting move and natal to do great*not wii great*...1st week out will probliy be roundish a 1-2million of each sold....more depending on E3 line ups.

 

Alot of you guys seem to forget something...Natal doesnt have to replace the core type games...it can add to it. Mic free squad commands..hell maybe even using hand movements...heck bet they could do a virtual keyboard for mmo's on the 360*which i was like theres that great thumbs pad anyways*  would be kewl to say ''bring up keyboard" and then bam its on ur screen and you type in the air...

 

well see thou.



You guys are saying that an exec that worked with the 32X and has been an exec at EA, midway and capcom is just butthurt?

I think this guy should be able to know a failure when he sees it, by now.

He has a very good point, one that mike from morgantown picked up on. There are no successful peripherals beside the wii fit board and controllers.



He's right... and he's wrong... sort of.

His point is that because Natal is essentially optional - i.e you can chose to ignore it - it runs the risk of just being another peripheral, in fact, it IS just another peripheral strictly speaking.

He clearly feels that the fact that motion controls define the Wii and are inseparable was the way to go - I presume that's what he means by integrated. That the console and the controller should be one experience with no choice to separate them.

However... given that the 360 launched without Natal (or Wave) and has sold around 39 million worldwide, it's clearly way too late in the game to make it mandatory. MS simply can't make Natal mandatory for menu navigation, game play, etc. - i.e. fully integrate it to the console.

It has to launch as a peripheral and an optional choice (unless MS are going to take the mother of all risks - which I really see no sign they're about to) and that's the way it goes.

So he's right - on paper if MS really want Natal to succeed to the max it should be mandatory, no Natal no playing on your 360. But he's also wrong because it's too late to do so.

BTW I should add, to try and avoid the usual you're just anti-whatever angle, that Move has exactly the same problem. It's a peripheral, too. If I want, I can just ignore it and stick to using my PS3 without it.

The only slight advantage I do see for Move is it looks like Sony could more easily tack it onto more games using the buttons - and judging by the Soccom tests they might well try to do so.

But I doubt they'll make it mandatory - so I still think they're in the same boat as MS.



Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...

mike_intellivision said:
Name a successful add-on? (Wii Fit)

Now name another one? ...

Now name one that cost more than $100? ...

That is the problem that Microsoft is facing.

Mike from Morgantown

I post... then I always find you've already posted what I was trying to say with far less words earlier in the thread.

Damn you!  But I love your simple way with words.

Also, totally agree and it amazes me that people jump to 'he's butthurt' or whatever insead of facing the fact he's talking about probabilities based on history.  And when you remove the hype and marketing Natal is being launched just like a peripheral add-on, and that means the odds are stacked against it because mostly they tend to have little impact.



Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...

It is a problem. Microsoft is basically hoping and marketing Natal to become the next Wii Fit. Move may not face the same problems Natal does because released games can be patched with Move support and the similarity of Wii Motion+ and Move essentially doubles the marketbase for developers.