Leo, can it. I say that Sony won't sell more than 8 million units worldwide till December 31st 2007 because it has yet to produce those units. Ya happy already?

I really would like to see the Wii reach 60 million, if only for the sole reason to see Leo-j fuss over it, but it does seem impossible. I reckon that it'll reach 50 million, but not more than that. But John, remember this, every good analyst leaves a 10% error margin for himself to slide on if their predictions fail :D

Wojtas said: Leo, can it. I say that Sony won't sell more than 8 million because it has yet to produce those units. Ya happy already? I really would like to see the Wii reach 60 million, if only for the sole reason to see Leo-j fuss over it, but it does seem impossible. I reckon that it'll reach 50 million, but not more than that. But John, remember this, every good analyst leaves a 10% error margin for himself to slide on if their predictions fail :D

So the ps3 will sell out?

If you consider 8 million for one year a success and a good sellout, then enjoy.

kitler53 said: you might be aiming a bit high but i believe you are at least in the ballpark. nothing you state is unreasonable. on a side note: taking human population to be 6.6 billion (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population), if the wii does in fact hit 500million that would be a 7.5% attach rate. xD

hahahaha. that's exactly why i think he's insane for the 500m estimate. i'm leaning more toward 400m to 450m, myself. =p and there will definitely be a good number of people who own two or three Wiis by generation's end. Also, I have a prediction about the Wii. I think Nintendo will do with the Wii what they did with the GBA. They will release a "third tier" successor to it (what the DS was for the GBA) that will be able to play ALL Wii games, but will be more powerful and able to play much more. However, they will continue support for the Wii for years to come afterwards, and the Wii will face a ten year (or more) lifespan. Easily.

How many awesome games Nintendo has for its platform is irrelevant. How high the demand for Nintendo's platform is irrelevant. Nintendo has never produced more than 2.5 million units of any console per month, and that 2.5 million number was of DS-lite units and I don't believe it was sustained.

You're suggesting that Nintendo will average 3.3 million units produced in 2008, even if we grant you the assumption that Nintendo will sell nearly 5 million units in December (a million units per week). Where Nintendo will find these, in light of Nintendo reasserting that it has not stockpiled units, is an exercise in itself.

Don't get me wrong -- I think it would be great for gaming and I'd personally like to see Nintendo sell that many units. I just don't see how they can get those kinds of production numbers. Thus far Nintendo has been entirely supply constrained and as the supply is the bottleneck, it seems logical to consider the supply when looking at all of Nintendo's numbers.

As soon as John Lucas posted this thread someone at nintendo made a call:
"Shit! we need to double production again! Immediately!"

You make "crazy" predictions, but you actually back it up with good logic and facts. Keep them predictions going. I hope they come true.

John, I sure hope you bought some Nintendo stock because you deserve some of their benefits. USS symbol is NTDOY.

Well, no offense, but I think your predictions and expectations have little reliability, what with the prediction that Wii will sell less than 17m total consoles by year's end.

That's 2.1m in five weeks, when they just sold .7m in one week and sales numbers will climb in the weeks to follow. Not gonna happen!

But I'm not trying to attack you or say you're a fool. Honestly, I'm not. I just think you may want to more heavily consider other opinions.

@ TheBigFatJ

You know that as soon as Nintendo finished increasing production to 1.8 million a month they started a new project to increase production even higher. I wouldn't be surprised if production is up to 2.5 million a month by February or March. They are freaking rolling in stockpiles of cash right now with all their profit, so they have the resources to expand to whatever that level of production they need.

if supply is there then yes i agree with you,also you forgot to mention monster hunter which will help wii in japan

Wii will liekly sell 18m roughly by years end. Your thinking 60m consoles by the end of '08. That's 42m in one year, so each week they have to sell on average 0.75 million. Seeing this week it only hit 0.65million with the christmas rush. I don't think that all of 2008 will exceed that each week. 60m won't happen.