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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - To those who don't understand my 60 million in 2008 prediction

60 million is simply not gonna happen

unless............Ninty triples their # of factories and gives them away for free

that's the only way i c 60 m;n happenning



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Danny355 said:
Well a 10th of 2008 has passed. 40 million Wiis in 2008 is still looking like a fairly ridiuclous statement. The numbers are pretty interesting though. In America Sonys situation looks as bleak as ever, the PS2 is STILL outselling the PS3, although if you add up the 2 systems the playstation is easily outselling the Wii right now. Unbelievably the PS2 has outsold the 360 worldwide so far in 2008, but its close both consoles averaging around 100k a week so far.

 LOL.  PS3 is doing very respectably vs. 360, and it's supposed to be a BAD thing that Sony is making shitloads of extra money by selling PS2s at a very high profit margin?  Ok....

 You know, one thing is Sony's favor is that "unbelievably the PS2 has outsold the 360 worldwide so far in 2008."

 And, hasn't the PS3, too?

 Yep, Sony's situation is as "bleak as ever."  ...



too long, didn't read it all.

All I'll say is, I bet a week ban it won't reach 60 million by years end



I'm back...

El Duderino said:
kingofwale said:
Original JL quote

". I see 500 Million as a territory when this is all said and done."

Unless Wii sells 100 million units per year. not going to happen. ;)

And how is he NOT Crazzy crazy?

This again...... the reason he´s not crazzzzzzy crazy is because he brings some good points, sure the results of his estimates are a little crazy but so what.


 Actually, that's what makes him worse. Crazzy was just ignorant at times. but JL could rationalize his thinking and able to come up with reasonable arguements, yet his predictions are completely wacko.

You don't have to watch out for crazy people, it's the sane one you have to be careful ;)



Soriku (Feb 10/08): In 5 years the PS3/360 will be dead.

KH3 bet: "If KH3 comes to Wii exclusive, I will take a 1 month of sig/avatar by otheres open a thread apologize and praise you guys' brilliance." http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=50&id=18379
Original cast: Badonkadonkhr, sc94597 allaboutthegames885, kingofwale, Soriku, ctk495, skeezer, RDBRaptor, Mirson,

Episode 1: OOPSY!
selnor
: Too Human I even expect 3-4 mill entire life and 500,000 first day. GoW2 ( expect 7 - 9 million entire life and over 2 mill first day), Fable 2 (expect 5-6 million entire life and 1.5 mill fist day) BK3 (expect 4 - 5 mill sales entire life and 1 mill first day).. Tales/IU/TLR should get to 2 or 3 million! post id: 868878
Episode 2:
Letsdance: FFXIII (PS3+360) first week in NA = 286K
According to pre-order rate in week 13 (post id: 2902544)
Loud_Hot_White_Box said:
Danny355 said:
Well a 10th of 2008 has passed. 40 million Wiis in 2008 is still looking like a fairly ridiuclous statement. The numbers are pretty interesting though. In America Sonys situation looks as bleak as ever, the PS2 is STILL outselling the PS3, although if you add up the 2 systems the playstation is easily outselling the Wii right now. Unbelievably the PS2 has outsold the 360 worldwide so far in 2008, but its close both consoles averaging around 100k a week so far.

 LOL.  PS3 is doing very respectably vs. 360, and it's supposed to be a BAD thing that Sony is making shitloads of extra money by selling PS2s at a very high profit margin?  Ok....

 You know, one thing is Sony's favor is that "unbelievably the PS2 has outsold the 360 worldwide so far in 2008."

 And, hasn't the PS3, too?

 Yep, Sony's situation is as "bleak as ever."  ...

Dont get me wrong, the PS3 is doing ok, as is the 360, in fact all 3 systems are doing sustainable numbers. But the PS3 is still fighting for second at best & its going to take a year at the current rate for the PS3 to even catch the 360. THAT IS a pretty bleak situation for the last generations clear winner to be in is it not? I would agree though on the whole Sony is still doing very well and still continue to sell a lot more playstations than Nintendo are Wiis. How it will work in the mid/long term though, Sony having 2 consoles selling fairly equally well, is another thing entirely.


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300k/week X 36 weeks left = 10.8 million
10.8 million + 2.4 for holidays = 13.2 for the rest of 08.
22.45+13.2 = 35.65 million

This is just the current sales no serious production increases or extra for new regions... this brings the total to 35.65 million at the end of 2008.

Let's say they get 1 million a week for the holidays, this means an extra 400k a week for 8 weeks, this adds another 3.2 million or a total of 38.85 million.

In June they get production up by an extra 100k a week, that is 26 weeks * 50k = 2.6 million or 41.45 million total.

If they brought China in to the show, with an addition 80k per week in June (just a guess) = 80k * 26 = 2.08 or 43.53

Still no where near 60 million, they would need to make and sell an additional 667k per week for the rest of the year. (from where we are now.)



I would cite regulation, but I know you will simply ignore it.

kingofwale said:
El Duderino said:
kingofwale said:
Original JL quote

". I see 500 Million as a territory when this is all said and done."

Unless Wii sells 100 million units per year. not going to happen. ;)

And how is he NOT Crazzy crazy?

This again...... the reason he´s not crazzzzzzy crazy is because he brings some good points, sure the results of his estimates are a little crazy but so what.


 Actually, that's what makes him worse. Crazzy was just ignorant at times. but JL could rationalize his thinking and able to come up with reasonable arguements, yet his predictions are completely wacko.

You don't have to watch out for crazy people, it's the sane one you have to be careful ;)


Indeed. As seen above in this thread, john lucas also predicted that MGS4 would never appear on a PS3 because it would go to 360. I don't think Sony has any plans to cancel their MGS4 bundle, do they? In fact, it looks very unlikely to ever go to 360 as many people have been saying for months. Konami is lettin Sony produce the MGS movie and now includin their game in a bundle. They've clearly had a deal but john lucas just wants the Playstation brand to crumble for whatever reason. It's going to be hard for the Wii to maintain momentum as the curent-gen systems (graphics-wise) continue to get huge exclusives (both individually and multiplats not on the Wii). john lucas cited Brawl, Kart, Fit, and lucas arts as reasons for the Wii to dominate this year (as well as other third parties). GTA, GT5, RE5, FF13, Gears, GoW3, etc might not bring in exercise fans, but are certanly very popular. GTA, GT, and FF outsell Brawl and Kart. Also, judging by Nintendo's own comments, Wii Fit isn't for exercise anyway. If you want exercise, get DDR. If you want to "understand your body," get WiiFit...or Yoga videos. Anyway, it's pretty obvious the Wii isn't going to reach 60 million this year, and it's not going to even be close (like he was close with 20 million but still wrong as usual).



Why did you bring this thread back to life after it was dumped months ago?



 

mM

Duh, cos this thread is duscussing the Wiis sales during 2008?



yeah, that seemed pretty obvious, leo-j.

Danny stated he will keep bringing it up. That's fine, because john lucas and others kept bringing up his supposedly correct prediction last year. He's wrong a lot.