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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - To those who don't understand my 60 million in 2008 prediction

CrazzyMan on 19 January 2008

2 mln. max in January.
3 mln. in rest 11 month.
Total 35 mln. + 19 mln. since 2008. = 54 mln. theoretical maximum for 2008.
But since PS3 has a great lineup this year + x360 will have some good games, that will take some potential buyers from wii. ps3/x360 pricecut also will do their job.
So unless intendo do a price cut and lose 50 mln. $ on every 1 mln. wii sold., they won`t reach over 50 mln. +Nobody knows will they able to produce 3 mln. per month + how long will be demand.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

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Rugger08 on 19 January 2008

If nintendo is able to produce 60 million consoles then they will be able to sell that many. They will probably only be able to produce 30 million this year, putting them at 50 million at the end of 2008.

19.2 million End of 2007
3.6 million 1.8 * 2 for January and Feb
9.6 million 2.4 * 4 for March through June
18 million 3 * 6 for last half of 2008

total = 50.4 million



Interests: Government, Sports, Accounting, Computers and Business

Avinash_Tyagi on 19 January 2008
___O_o______ said:
i will seriously ROFFLE hard during november 2008, when Wii is only in the 35 million range. LMAO.

i'm guessing your prediction will be off by 20~25 million . seriously,

Soyez réaliste!

 And then in November and december Wii will sell like 10 million+

 

At the same time PS3 will struggle to reach 17 million by nd of year (probably top out around 16.5) and 360 won't reach 24 by end of year



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi on 19 January 2008
CrazzyMan said:
2 mln. max in January.
3 mln. in rest 11 month.
Total 35 mln. + 19 mln. since 2008. = 54 mln. theoretical maximum for 2008.
But since PS3 has a great lineup this year + x360 will have some good games, that will take some potential buyers from wii. ps3/x360 pricecut also will do their job.
So unless intendo do a price cut and lose 50 mln. $ on every 1 mln. wii sold., they won`t reach over 50 mln. +Nobody knows will they able to produce 3 mln. per month + how long will be demand.

Wii won't lose demand to PS3 and 360 games, simply because of its demographic nature, so the only question is how much Wii's can be produced



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

___O_o______ on 19 January 2008

are you being sarcastic Avinash?



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Stever89 on 19 January 2008
CrazzyMan said:
2 mln. max in January.
3 mln. in rest 11 month.
Total 35 mln. + 19 mln. since 2008. = 54 mln. theoretical maximum for 2008.
But since PS3 has a great lineup this year + x360 will have some good games, that will take some potential buyers from wii. ps3/x360 pricecut also will do their job.
So unless intendo do a price cut and lose 50 mln. $ on every 1 mln. wii sold., they won`t reach over 50 mln. +Nobody knows will they able to produce 3 mln. per month + how long will be demand.

I assume that's suppose to be 30 million?

54 million probably is probably higher than the maximum for 2008, I would say closer to 45 million, at current production levels.

Though PS3 has a lot of great games coming out, the 360 and Wii both have great games that can't just be ignored. And since most of Wii's big games are first party, you can't just rule them out (which is what I think a lot of people do).

If Nintendo were to drop the price enough to lose $50 million for each million sold, then they'd probably have to drop the price to $125 because they were making $50 on each sold, and I bet it's come down a little since then, and at $100, it's practically as cheap as the PS2. Either way, they can't (at the moment) sell more than they produce, which is roughly 1.8 million a month.

John Lucas may be crazy, but what will be crazy is if he's correct... which I don't think he will be.

End of Year Predictions:
     Wii: 44 million
     PS3: 21 million
     360: 26 million



leo-j on 19 January 2008

JL

was WRONG

he said ps3 will not hit 9 million by the end of 2007 and IT DID.

Once the numbers are adjusted, the ps3 would have hit more than 9 milllion by the end of 2008.

Also the wii (once numbers are adjusted) was at 19.1-19.3million(year's end) he expect 20 million at the least

so he was WRONG AGAIN.

Also, I was correc that ps3 would hit 9 million and that wii would not hit 20 million.



 

mM
Avinash_Tyagi on 19 January 2008
___O_o______ said:
are you being sarcastic Avinash?

 Nope, we've seen what the Wii can do supply constrained, 16 million +, this year we will see the Wii easily beat that, with a much larger supply, to think that it will top out at only 35 million like you do is amazingly foolish



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi on 19 January 2008
leo-j said:
JL

was WRONG

he said ps3 will not hit 9 million by the end of 2007 and IT DID.

Once the numbers are adjusted, the ps3 would have hit more than 9 milllion by the end of 2008.

Also the wii (once numbers are adjusted) was at 19.1-19.3million(year's end) he expect 20 million at the least

so he was WRONG AGAIN.

Also, I was correc that ps3 would hit 9 million and that wii would not hit 20 million.

 And you'll be wrong that PS3 won't fall below 120K, it'll probably fall below that in two weeks, and you'll be wrong that Wii will sell 33 million, even if it sold only as much as last year it would be over 35 million, difference is JL made his predictions over a year in advance and was only a little off, you make them a few weeks in advance and you're wildly off



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Xponent on 19 January 2008

I think 60 million is certainly possible. If Nintendo decided to raise production in line with this figure, I believe that they would have plenty of ammunition up their sleeves to meet supply. Dont forget that the Wii is still awaiting its first price reduction, and Nintendo have far more room to maneuver in this regard, given the limited technical capabilities of the Wii. On that basis alone I think they could meet the target, yet if you consider the possiblity of a new sku, and the momentum generated by titles such as Wii Fit and SSBB, the sky is the limit really.

On another note, I don't believe the success (or failure) of the HD consoles will have a significant effect on the Wii, given that it offers an experience quite different to that offered by the competition. Indeed, it is the PS3 and the Xbox 360 that compete directly against one another, a significant factor IMO of the Wii's ongoing success.