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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - To those who don't understand my 60 million in 2008 prediction

Avinash_Tyagi on 04 December 2007

Define "Most people". You're just ignoring facts. The world wide 360 numbers dont give a realistic view of the western markets for obvious reasons. Even if the Wii continues to sell at the current rate it'll take the best part of another year to overtake the 360 in the biggest market and the Wii is YEARS AWAY from having a dominant market share in America...So how is that "no interest"?


No you are, notice how you made no mention of the fact that Wii sells out constantly while the supply of 360's are plentiful, overlook that fact did you? And the fact that it indicates that Wii is in much higher demand, if 360 demand was strong then it would have a much more limited supply or much higher sales, its supply is not an issue and its sales are not that strong.

As for your comments about the PS2, yes the Wii is currently something like 98 million behind but the PS2 is the 2nd best selling console. Your comments suggest you think the PS2 will die in a few months and never sell another unit. No need to be clever about the "concepts of long & short run" its quite simple: The PS2 has sold 5m+ this year and was STILL the 2nd biggest selling console last week


Again you ignore the facts that PS2 still had high profile titles coming on its console this year, like God of War 2, that is not going to be an issue in the years to come, its sales will not be as high as before, Also PS2 was only the second highest selling console in the others market, not in NA or Japan, even arguing that it may add a few million ove rht next few years does not make the Wii's task that much more difficult, even if we say that PS2 will add 10 million over the next three years for the sake of argument, that brings it to 108 million units over 37 months (including december of this year), which means an average of about 2.92 million a month, not even double its current production, more like a million extra per moth, not an impossible task

The Wii only took around 9m out of the PS2s lead this year. So yes you're right the Wii needs to double production and keep that up for the next 3 years to pass the PS2s. Will that happen? Well despite the current crazy numbers Nintendo obviously arnt prepared to take a risk at the moment to increase the production. Let alone double the production. Even if the Wiis demand doubles tommorow it'll take another year for Nintendo tohave the confidence to DOUBLE the production.


Nope, again you didn't work out the math, you see even if they lose this upcoming year, it would still be very possible, lets assume that PS2 adds 10 million more in sales ove rhte next three years for the sake of argument, putting them around 122 million, Then lests say Wii ends this year at about 18 million, meaning 36 months to reach 104 million, assuming a year of maintained production of 1.8 million, would put next years Wii sales at about 22 million, putting them at about 40 million and 24 months to reach 82 million, at doubled production of 3.6 million a month Wii would surpass the PS2 in late october, early november of 2010.

This assumes that it takes over a year to up their production, and that PS2 console sales over 3 million each of the next three years, which is doubtful as nintendo already knows they are missing opportunities with limited supplies, since they do not have to lower their price to sell more consoles, just produce more, and since they make a profit on each console sold there is no reason not to invest in more production facilities, and PS2 is nearing the end of its lifespan



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Mummelmann on 04 December 2007
Danny355 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Danny355 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Danny355 said:
The PS2 is likley to sell another 15m+ units by the end of 2010 and at this point stating the Wii is going to sell 33m for the next 3 years is just silly speculation, let alone the 40+ it would realistically need to overtake the PS2. Its just about possible but very, very unlikely. People are getting very carried away after seeing the holiday numbers. Next year will be huge for the Wii but its not going to sell twice what it did this year. Lets not get carried away the Wii has sold 15m in its first year. Next year the 360 and the PS3 will be much more competitively priced so even though the Wii will be huge again I expect the market shares to stay the same as they are now.

Most people have no interest in the PS3 and 360, you notice even with its price drop PS3 struggled to compete with Wii, even during a lull point in the market, since sales in Japan always take a downturn in Oct and Nov, yet the Wii kept chugging along at a healthy pace, why? Because Wii success is independent of the PS3 and 360, you think grandma is going to want to headshot aliens? Probably not, but she will want to bowl


Most people have no interest in the 360? Im sorry but that is just delusion. In the biggest market its still going to take another 6 months for the Wii to catch the 360s sales. I dont understand your maths either, like Tuggy has pointed out there are 1.8 million Wiis being made each month at the moment, at a time when the demand is huge. So what makes you think they are going to sell more than 21 million during 2008? The Wii has just cracked 15 million in its first year, which is a stunning result, but to catch the PS2 by 2010 it would have to do 3 times that for the next 3 years, an impossible task that a few bowling grannies is not going to change! I really want the Wii to suceed and destroy the Playstation name and everything it stood for, but that is years away and the success of the PS2 shouldnt be underestimated.


What are you talking about PS2 is at 112 million units according to VGchartz, which means Wii only has to sell about 97-98 million over three years, that means Wii has to essentially double its production, you do understand that while Wii is at 1.8 million per month production right now that will not always be the case, production will be added and that figure will go up. I recommend you look up the concpets of short run vs. long run, with regards to production.

Yeah most people do not have any interest in the 360, less than 15 million have been sold worldwide in two years that's not great demand, I mean just in the three major markets there are about a billion people plus, so that is a mere fraction of the populations owns it, and demand has been slow, by comparison Wii has suprassed that number in half the time, while being hard to find in most regions


Define "Most people". You're just ignoring facts. The world wide 360 numbers dont give a realistic view of the western markets for obvious reasons. Even if the Wii continues to sell at the current rate it'll take the best part of another year to overtake the 360 in the biggest market and the Wii is YEARS AWAY from having a dominant market share in America...So how is that "no interest"?

As for your comments about the PS2, yes the Wii is currently something like 98 million behind but the PS2 is the 2nd best selling console. Your comments suggest you think the PS2 will die in a few months and never sell another unit. No need to be clever about the "concepts of long & short run" its quite simple: The PS2 has sold 5m+ this year and was STILL the 2nd biggest selling console last week.

The Wii only took around 9m out of the PS2s lead this year. So yes you're right the Wii needs to double production and keep that up for the next 3 years to pass the PS2s. Will that happen? Well despite the current crazy numbers Nintendo obviously arnt prepared to take a risk at the moment to increase the production. Let alone double the production. Even if the Wiis demand doubles tommorow it'll take another year for Nintendo tohave the confidence to DOUBLE the production.

So the earliest possible time they can overtake the PS2 is at least 12/31/2011, more likely 12/31/2012.

 


 You poor man, get out while you can! There's no use discussing with this guy. Regardless of who makes points on which side, bottom line is; you don't support crazy Wii sales predictions, and as such you have no credibility with folks like this. Leave here and let the thread die on its own.



johnlucas on 04 December 2007
Danny355 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Danny355 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Danny355 said:
The PS2 is likley to sell another 15m+ units by the end of 2010 and at this point stating the Wii is going to sell 33m for the next 3 years is just silly speculation, let alone the 40+ it would realistically need to overtake the PS2. Its just about possible but very, very unlikely. People are getting very carried away after seeing the holiday numbers. Next year will be huge for the Wii but its not going to sell twice what it did this year. Lets not get carried away the Wii has sold 15m in its first year. Next year the 360 and the PS3 will be much more competitively priced so even though the Wii will be huge again I expect the market shares to stay the same as they are now.

Most people have no interest in the PS3 and 360, you notice even with its price drop PS3 struggled to compete with Wii, even during a lull point in the market, since sales in Japan always take a downturn in Oct and Nov, yet the Wii kept chugging along at a healthy pace, why? Because Wii success is independent of the PS3 and 360, you think grandma is going to want to headshot aliens? Probably not, but she will want to bowl


Most people have no interest in the 360? Im sorry but that is just delusion. In the biggest market its still going to take another 6 months for the Wii to catch the 360s sales. I dont understand your maths either, like Tuggy has pointed out there are 1.8 million Wiis being made each month at the moment, at a time when the demand is huge. So what makes you think they are going to sell more than 21 million during 2008? The Wii has just cracked 15 million in its first year, which is a stunning result, but to catch the PS2 by 2010 it would have to do 3 times that for the next 3 years, an impossible task that a few bowling grannies is not going to change! I really want the Wii to suceed and destroy the Playstation name and everything it stood for, but that is years away and the success of the PS2 shouldnt be underestimated.


What are you talking about PS2 is at 112 million units according to VGchartz, which means Wii only has to sell about 97-98 million over three years, that means Wii has to essentially double its production, you do understand that while Wii is at 1.8 million per month production right now that will not always be the case, production will be added and that figure will go up. I recommend you look up the concpets of short run vs. long run, with regards to production.

Yeah most people do not have any interest in the 360, less than 15 million have been sold worldwide in two years that's not great demand, I mean just in the three major markets there are about a billion people plus, so that is a mere fraction of the populations owns it, and demand has been slow, by comparison Wii has suprassed that number in half the time, while being hard to find in most regions


Define "Most people". You're just ignoring facts. The world wide 360 numbers dont give a realistic view of the western markets for obvious reasons. Even if the Wii continues to sell at the current rate it'll take the best part of another year to overtake the 360 in the biggest market and the Wii is YEARS AWAY from having a dominant market share in America...So how is that "no interest"?

As for your comments about the PS2, yes the Wii is currently something like 98 million behind but the PS2 is the 2nd best selling console. Your comments suggest you think the PS2 will die in a few months and never sell another unit. No need to be clever about the "concepts of long & short run" its quite simple: The PS2 has sold 5m+ this year and was STILL the 2nd biggest selling console last week.

The Wii only took around 9m out of the PS2s lead this year. So yes you're right the Wii needs to double production and keep that up for the next 3 years to pass the PS2s. Will that happen? Well despite the current crazy numbers Nintendo obviously arnt prepared to take a risk at the moment to increase the production. Let alone double the production. Even if the Wiis demand doubles tommorow it'll take another year for Nintendo tohave the confidence to DOUBLE the production.

So the earliest possible time they can overtake the PS2 is at least 12/31/2011, more likely 12/31/2012.

 


I'm saving this prediction to make officially for 2009.

Read at your own risk.

Wii sees 120 million by the end of 2009. Yes they will sell PS2's level in 3 years.

John Lucas



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

Danny355 on 04 December 2007
Avinash_Tyagi said:
No you are, notice how you made no mention of the fact that Wii sells out constantly while the supply of 360's are plentiful, overlook that fact did you? And the fact that it indicates that Wii is in much higher demand, if 360 demand was strong then it would have a much more limited supply or much higher sales, its supply is not an issue and its sales are not that strong.

Again you ignore the facts that PS2 still had high profile titles coming on its console this year, like God of War 2, that is not going to be an issue in the years to come, its sales will not be as high as before, Also PS2 was only the second highest selling console in the others market, not in NA or Japan, even arguing that it may add a few million ove rht next few years does not make the Wii's task that much more difficult, even if we say that PS2 will add 10 million over the next three years for the sake of argument, that brings it to 108 million units over 37 months (including december of this year), which means an average of about 2.92 million a month, not even double its current production, more like a million extra per moth, not an impossible task


Nope, again you didn't work out the math, you see even if they lose this upcoming year, it would still be very possible, lets assume that PS2 adds 10 million more in sales ove rhte next three years for the sake of argument, putting them around 122 million, Then lests say Wii ends this year at about 18 million, meaning 36 months to reach 104 million, assuming a year of maintained production of 1.8 million, would put next years Wii sales at about 22 million, putting them at about 40 million and 24 months to reach 82 million, at doubled production of 3.6 million a month Wii would surpass the PS2 in late october, early november of 2010.

This assumes that it takes over a year to up their production, and that PS2 console sales over 3 million each of the next three years, which is doubtful as nintendo already knows they are missing opportunities with limited supplies, since they do not have to lower their price to sell more consoles, just produce more, and since they make a profit on each console sold there is no reason not to invest in more production facilities, and PS2 is nearing the end of its lifespan

 

Yes the Wii is sold out "constantly"...Because it was a suprise hit & its Christmas! The Wii hasnt been sold out all year, get a grip. If Nintendo were confident they could sustain higher sales they would manufacture more, but they obviously ARENT, end of story. Why didnt Nintendo just double the production for the months of October & November and simply build up a nice stockpile for Christmas and clear the backlog of people that want them? Its costly to up the production for short periods of time, sustained growth is much better.

 The PS2 has 110million units in circulation and actually it WAS the 2nd biggest selling console in the USA in 2007. Get your facts straight. It WILL continue to have big titles and its momentum will continue for a few years yet. The fact that you seem to insinuate it will be lucky to sell 10 million in 3 years says a lot. Its looking like selling a million in the USA alone during the next 30 days!!

 



Avinash_Tyagi on 04 December 2007

Yes the Wii is sold out "constantly"...Because it was a suprise hit & its Christmas! The Wii hasnt been sold out all year, get a grip. If Nintendo were confident they could sustain higher sales they would manufacture more, but they obviously ARENT, end of story. Why didnt Nintendo just double the production for the months of October & November and simply build up a nice stockpile for Christmas and clear the backlog of people that want them? Its costly to up the production for short periods of time, sustained growth is much better.


Actually for most of the year Wii was very hard to find and would sell out within hours if not minutes of being placed on the shelf. Also you're making the mistake that production can be expanded that easily, either thaey have to open up a new factory, or they have to negotiate with another company to begin production, both of these tae time, it is not as simple as flipping a switch, and you are lost if you think they aren't actively researching those and other possibilities to expand their production.

The PS2 has 110million units in circulation and actually it WAS the 2nd biggest selling console in the USA in 2007. Get your facts straight. It WILL continue to have big titles and its momentum will continue for a few years yet. The fact that you seem to insinuate it will be lucky to sell 10 million in 3 years says a lot. Its looking like selling a million in the USA alone during the next 30 days!!


NA sales put the Wii as highest and the 360 as second highest, although much further behind than the Wii, PS2 is behind the 360, so sorry it is not the second highest selling console.

http://vgchartz.com/ayearly.php

Also just because it will sell a million doesn't man it will continue to sell at this rate for the next few years, this year its sold 3 million so far in NA. over the next few years expect that number to drop, face it, it will be surpassed by the Wii by the end of 2010.



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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yoshiboots on 04 December 2007

I think it is true that it can sell that much and it might. Good writing too.



Ickalanda on 04 December 2007

I think it could sell 60 million by the end of next year assuming they bump up their production rates.



PC Gamer
DMeisterJ on 04 December 2007
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Yes the Wii is sold out "constantly"...Because it was a suprise hit & its Christmas! The Wii hasnt been sold out all year, get a grip. If Nintendo were confident they could sustain higher sales they would manufacture more, but they obviously ARENT, end of story. Why didnt Nintendo just double the production for the months of October & November and simply build up a nice stockpile for Christmas and clear the backlog of people that want them? Its costly to up the production for short periods of time, sustained growth is much better.


Actually for most of the year Wii was very hard to find and would sell out within hours if not minutes of being placed on the shelf. Also you're making the mistake that production can be expanded that easily, either thaey have to open up a new factory, or they have to negotiate with another company to begin production, both of these tae time, it is not as simple as flipping a switch, and you are lost if you think they aren't actively researching those and other possibilities to expand their production.

The PS2 has 110million units in circulation and actually it WAS the 2nd biggest selling console in the USA in 2007. Get your facts straight. It WILL continue to have big titles and its momentum will continue for a few years yet. The fact that you seem to insinuate it will be lucky to sell 10 million in 3 years says a lot. Its looking like selling a million in the USA alone during the next 30 days!!


NA sales put the Wii as highest and the 360 as second highest, although much further behind than the Wii, PS2 is behind the 360, so sorry it is not the second highest selling console.

http://vgchartz.com/ayearly.php

Also just because it will sell a million doesn't man it will continue to sell at this rate for the next few years, this year its sold 3 million so far in NA. over the next few years expect that number to drop, face it, it will be surpassed by the Wii by the end of 2010.

Wow, you have really lost it.  You're telling me that the Wii will sell 90+ million (110[PS2] -20[Wii]) in three years?  Or do you mean just in america?  If you mean WW, then you must have lost it.  That's thirty million a year.  I'm telling you, each one of your quotes is outlandish as the last.



Yojimbo on 04 December 2007
DMeisterJ said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Yes the Wii is sold out "constantly"...Because it was a suprise hit & its Christmas! The Wii hasnt been sold out all year, get a grip. If Nintendo were confident they could sustain higher sales they would manufacture more, but they obviously ARENT, end of story. Why didnt Nintendo just double the production for the months of October & November and simply build up a nice stockpile for Christmas and clear the backlog of people that want them? Its costly to up the production for short periods of time, sustained growth is much better.


Actually for most of the year Wii was very hard to find and would sell out within hours if not minutes of being placed on the shelf. Also you're making the mistake that production can be expanded that easily, either thaey have to open up a new factory, or they have to negotiate with another company to begin production, both of these tae time, it is not as simple as flipping a switch, and you are lost if you think they aren't actively researching those and other possibilities to expand their production.

The PS2 has 110million units in circulation and actually it WAS the 2nd biggest selling console in the USA in 2007. Get your facts straight. It WILL continue to have big titles and its momentum will continue for a few years yet. The fact that you seem to insinuate it will be lucky to sell 10 million in 3 years says a lot. Its looking like selling a million in the USA alone during the next 30 days!!


NA sales put the Wii as highest and the 360 as second highest, although much further behind than the Wii, PS2 is behind the 360, so sorry it is not the second highest selling console.

http://vgchartz.com/ayearly.php

Also just because it will sell a million doesn't man it will continue to sell at this rate for the next few years, this year its sold 3 million so far in NA. over the next few years expect that number to drop, face it, it will be surpassed by the Wii by the end of 2010.

Wow, you have really lost it. You're telling me that the Wii will sell 90+ million (110[PS2] -20[Wii]) in three years? Or do you mean just in america? If you mean WW, then you must have lost it. That's thirty million a year. I'm telling you, each one of your quotes is outlandish as the last.

It has been out now 1 year and it has sold 15 million. It was released november in USA and the beginning of december rest of the world. John Lucas thinks that Wii sell 240m dont listen to him.

 



 
Danny355 on 04 December 2007

Yeah I think I might have to take the advice of others and quit arguing with you now. I think you're naive and severely deluded and thats putting it very nicely.