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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - To those who don't understand my 60 million in 2008 prediction

bdbdbd on 29 November 2007
TalonMan said:
Why do people automatically assume the DS is easier to produce than the Wii? Frankly, I would think the Wii (based on GCN (6-year-old) architecture) would be far easier for Nintendo to manufacture than the DS with it's dual screens and touch sensors (in fact - wasn't there an issue with Nintendo last year having problems OBTAINING those touch LCD's?????).

I dunno if John is, once again, going for shock value with his predictions, but I have no doubts that Nintendo can ramp up production almost at will. The only 'new' technology they are coming to grips with in the manufacturing process is the Wiimote itself, and I have a hard time believing that controller is harder to produce than a DS.

Just my two cents... :P

I'll give you a conspiracy theory... Screens are made by Sony. The reason why people see Wii harder to make, is that Wii has more parts in it. It's basically the same reason, why people see the PS3 harder to make than Wii or DS.
DMeisterJ said:
JL you are crazy, AT, you are equally as crazy, and anyone who believes that it'll sell anything more than 150 million lifetime can also join the group.  The highest it could possibly go, is MAYBE 200 million.  

 


Avinash Tyagi: Up to 750M John Lucas: Up to 500M DMeisterJ: Up to 200M

Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

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Avinash_Tyagi on 29 November 2007
Non Sequor said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
lol, well no, but there are approximately 450-600 million people in the middle classes of China and India combined, many of whom are becoming consumers of electronics, I believe the Wii could find great support in those countries (not to mention that salaries in those countries are growing pretty fast thanks to globalization)

 Number of people isn't the important statistic when considering market size for electronics. The relevent statistic is number of households.


 Assuming a family size of even five on average for the two countries you have stil 90-120 million households (give or take) just from the middle classes, which are growing as well, that would be a big boost to WW sales



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Emmitt2222 on 29 November 2007
facher83 said:
"Edit: btw just checked and the PS2's best 3 year stretch was about 55 mil."

I wouldn't necessarily count any time span as solid truths unless a console starts that period without and back stock units. I'm not sure what span you're referring to, but if it's in the middle somewhere, PS2 likely had units on the shelves, which means better sales if demand is high enough.

According to this 3 year idea, even if Wii sells the same per year for the first 3 years, it would be 15x3 = 45 million units sold, under supply constrictions... remove the constriction, and you're ONLY needing to make up a 10 million difference, which is easy to do during holiday seasons 3 times.

 I think one of us is slightly confused, but I'm not sure who.  What I was trying to say with my edit was basically "Look, the PS2 sold only 55 mil in its best 3 years and it sold 120 mil overall.  The ipod sold 114 mil in the last 3 years and that could even have some room for increasing."  I was just trying to prove that we shouldn't just look at the PS2 as some limiting factor here and realize the sky could be the limit.  I wasn't really trying to show anything about stock or production in that paragraph.



gawalls on 29 November 2007

thing is - there's no limit to how well or badly the Wii could do, the ipod is a good example. It has become a brand leading must have accessory now that has constantly expanded to fill what the public desires out of a MP3 player, again with the MP3 market - Sony dropped the ball on this also when backing Mini Disks and by the time they came to the market the brand leader was already established - sound familiar?

With the PS3 stating they'll be around for 12 years and no doubt they will as it's a fantastic console that hasn't scratched the surface yet and the 360 having it's place established in the market - if the Wii and motion controls keeps momentum throughout the next year or even two then where's it's competitiors coming from?

I predict the Wii offering more services like DS demos, TV guides, probably even VOIP phone services, DVD player and many other services that people will want in their home and it may just become like Ipod in many ways where the skys the limit. As services like HD TV becomes more popular then new Wii's will come out that will offer 100% backwards compatibility with channels etc and will expand as the audiences needs expand after all a new Ipod model is still an Ipod isn't it?

 



Those people that think they're perfect give a bad reputation to us who are... 

"With the DS, it's fair to say that Nintendo stepped out of the technical race and went for a feature differentiation with the touch screen, but I fear that it won't have a lasting impact beyond that of a gimmick - so the long-lasting appeal of the platform is at peril as a direct result of that." - Phil Harrison, Sony

HeSSeH on 29 November 2007

Good post John! Liked reading it.

I predict a lot lower: 43 million sold by 31-12-2007.



I'm going to buy Zack and Wiki! And you should so too.

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regin2005 on 29 November 2007

This thread was very entertaining! One of the reasons why I like this site so much. Keep it coming.



Generation 8 Predictions so far.....(as of 9/2013)

Console that will sell most: Nintendo Wii U

Who will sell more consoles between Microsoft/SONY: SONY

 

Jetlogs on 29 November 2007

@gawalls: The Wii is already offering DS Demos via the new nintendo channel for the Japanese Wiis.



Video Game Papercrafts

The only reason Sakurai allowed Snake is because he was already a clone

Wii Friend Code: 2854 9908 3926 2816

Mummelmann on 29 November 2007

Okay, PS3 prediction: 18 million by 2008 calendar year. Takers?



Chadius on 29 November 2007

This is why I love johnlucas's posts.

Even if you don't agree with him, you can see his zeal, his insight, and his hope.

When he's wrong, he fully admits it and never denies it.

And when he's right, you start to see the method behind the madness.



There is no such thing as a console war. This is the first step to game design.

gawalls on 29 November 2007

I know that Jetlogs, perhaps I worded it badly.  I meant they'd offer more services like that as in VOIP, Interactive TV Guides,



Those people that think they're perfect give a bad reputation to us who are... 

"With the DS, it's fair to say that Nintendo stepped out of the technical race and went for a feature differentiation with the touch screen, but I fear that it won't have a lasting impact beyond that of a gimmick - so the long-lasting appeal of the platform is at peril as a direct result of that." - Phil Harrison, Sony