Well Sony went from 7 million in its first year to 24 millionat the end of its second with the PS2, Wii is selling at double the rate of the PS2, PS2 basically increased its production by a factor of approx. 2.5, if Wii was to do that it would result in second year production of anywhere from 40-50 million consoles

Everything that John says is possible in the best case scenario. Luckily Wii is following those scenarios in most respects, but not everything reaches best case scenario and if Wii manages to all the way through, then yes, it will be one for the history books.

You have very valid reasons to claim what you do, unfortunately not everyone has vision, including some of the people at Nintendo dealing with production. :p

 I suppose you're right, but John Lucas is John Lucas and we all know that 70% of these forums are rooting for the Wii. Maybe we should create an official Sony support group in here, so crazyKen won't cry?

However outlandish JL's claims are, let people argue over them, there's nothing we can say or do to convince anyone otherwise. Besides; I don't care to! Let the Ninty fans celebrate, the N64 and Gamecube needed a good descendant after all. 

The thing with John Lucas is that many of his "outlandish" predictions turn out to be spot on, or barely wrong. That's much more than what can be said for most PS3 and 360 fans here.

Regarding support, anyone can support any predictions they want to, why don't many PS3 fans support crazy PS3 predictions? I'm guessing it's because they don't believe them, so don't blame Wii fans for it.

Bravo!  Well stated.  The Wii will definetly not move 500 million units by the end.  and

@ Avinash Tyagi

"If Wii launches in India and China I could see 750 Million easy".  That is comic gold.  Whoo!  Hooray for the crazy person.  You must be sipping the juice.  You're talking about the Wii selling more than every console ever made. 

And even if they double production (Which they wont) next year to 3.6 per month, that would be 43.2 million.  If they COULD produce all of that.  Then of course it'd do sixty next year but it wont.  JL you are crazy, AT, you are equally as crazy, and anyone who believes that it'll sell anything more than 150 million lifetime can also join the group.  The highest it could possibly go, is MAYBE 200 million.  but 150 is more in line with the truth. 

45- million is a good number for the Wii on Jan 1, 2009
If N can increase production enough, and couple it with a price drop to 175(casual gamers like cheaper) we could break 50 million-

Lets get some numbers straight. Granted, maybe from Jan 1 - Dec 31 the most shipped is 26 mil for the DS, but from Nov 19, 2006 - Nov 18, 2007 the DS has sold over 27 million so shipment numbers should easily be closer to 28-29 mil during that time period. Noone has ever increased production that sharply because noone has ever HAD to. No system has ever been this hot. No system has sold out for a whole year before. Until now with the Wii.

Now with that said, do I think the Wii will hit 60 mil? Probably not. I think 45-50 mil is a better guess. 45 mil shipped definitely seems on the lower end though.

As with the iPod thing, it could very well sell 500 million in it's lifetime. In it's first three years, the ipod sold a little over 5 million. The Wii sold closer to 15 mil in it's first year. In the last three years the ipod has sold 114 mil including 21 million during the 2006 Christmas season. I don't think it is super likely, but if the Wii caught on like the ipod some very wild things could happen. That said, I think 200 mil sounds like a better number, but the ipod has shown us that you never do know.

Edit: btw just checked and the PS2's best 3 year stretch was about 55 mil.

The easiest way to get to 250 million consoles is to sell it at 50$ with a game and offer a huge selection of value priced games. The PS2 could have continued into 250 million sold territory as well if they hadn't of dropped it in favour of the PS3. A strong PS2 would have done far more damage to the Wii then the PS3 ever will.

Hehe.... all this talk of piracy and copying and.... I guess you could add modding and downloading, and look no farther than the US for XBox mods and PSP mods Of course this only exists in China..... not.

"Edit: btw just checked and the PS2's best 3 year stretch was about 55 mil."

I wouldn't necessarily count any time span as solid truths unless a console starts that period without and back stock units. I'm not sure what span you're referring to, but if it's in the middle somewhere, PS2 likely had units on the shelves, which means better sales if demand is high enough.

According to this 3 year idea, even if Wii sells the same per year for the first 3 years, it would be 15x3 = 45 million units sold, under supply constrictions... remove the constriction, and you're ONLY needing to make up a 10 million difference, which is easy to do during holiday seasons 3 times.