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Emmitt2222 on 29 November 2007
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DMeisterJ said:
Zucas said:
I just don't think people are understanding the flaws in this. I hear people saying well they'll just double their production. I don't think I've ever read a sentence that is more true to the quote, "easier said than done". First of all Wii in its first year was only looking at about 17-18 million shipped. 17.5 million if we go by fiscal year. So doubling that would not give us 40 million.

Secondly the most the DS has ever had shipped in a year was about 25-26 million thereabouts and that's a record. DS's are easy to produce and that sold out. Now we are saying a harder to produce Wii will ship more in 1 year and all sellout. That's ludacris.

If Wii is lucky by the end of 2008 it'll have 45 million shipped. And guys that is really pushing it. Having 25 million shipped in a year is a hell of a lot for a gaming console. Not only mentioning that this has to have demand stay that high as well.

Now I'm also seeing yall say 500 million lifetime for Wii? Hell I don't even think the Ipod hit that much in all of its version combined. I think what people are saying the main reason being China? Hello people China will never get to levels that it should be. Too much damn piracy over there. Buy the offbrand cheaper and they can copy the exact same thing. Piracy will stop that market from really growing into anything larger than the Japanese market. Unless some serious restrictions start happening over there. Fact of the matter is 500 million is impossible. Not only that but Wii wouldn't be out on the market long enough to even hit that. That'd be suggesting Wii will be out way past 2020. Even 250 million is impossible. I mean seriously the highest limit I'll allow people to predict for Wii is 200 million, and to me that is impossible. I suggest people stick with the range of anywhere from 60 million to 150 million. Otherwise we are going insane in both directions. I mean I swear next prediction is going to be 1 billion and that 1/8 of the world will have a Wii. Guys it huge, but not that huge.

Bravo! Well stated. The Wii will definetly not move 500 million units by the end. and

@ Avinash Tyagi

"If Wii launches in India and China I could see 750 Million easy". That is comic gold. Whoo! Hooray for the crazy person. You must be sipping the juice. You're talking about the Wii selling more than every console ever made.

And even if they double production (Which they wont) next year to 3.6 per month, that would be 43.2 million. If they COULD produce all of that. Then of course it'd do sixty next year but it wont. JL you are crazy, AT, you are equally as crazy, and anyone who believes that it'll sell anything more than 150 million lifetime can also join the group. The highest it could possibly go, is MAYBE 200 million. but 150 is more in line with the truth.

 


Lets get some numbers straight. Granted, maybe from Jan 1 - Dec 31 the most shipped is 26 mil for the DS, but from Nov 19, 2006 - Nov 18, 2007 the DS has sold over 27 million so shipment numbers should easily be closer to 28-29 mil during that time period. Noone has ever increased production that sharply because noone has ever HAD to. No system has ever been this hot. No system has sold out for a whole year before. Until now with the Wii.

Now with that said, do I think the Wii will hit 60 mil? Probably not. I think 45-50 mil is a better guess. 45 mil shipped definitely seems on the lower end though.

As with the iPod thing, it could very well sell 500 million in it's lifetime. In it's first three years, the ipod sold a little over 5 million. The Wii sold closer to 15 mil in it's first year. In the last three years the ipod has sold 114 mil including 21 million during the 2006 Christmas season. I don't think it is super likely, but if the Wii caught on like the ipod some very wild things could happen. That said, I think 200 mil sounds like a better number, but the ipod has shown us that you never do know.

 

Edit: btw just checked and the PS2's best 3 year stretch was about 55 mil.