Good games get good reviews. Let's hope it sees decent sales, too.
Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...
| Seece said: Glad they're happy, it deserves more than a 84 though .. What sales will they be happy with I wonder, obviously they know this won't sell Gears levels. Maybe 2.5 lifetime? |
Yaaay! finally someone in this thread who used the correct spelling.
For English as a 2nd language folks, this one's a tricky but good one to remember how to get right. There (look over there, zombies!) =/= their (their zombies are not as scary as ours) =/= they're (look out they're coming to get you!). For people who are native English speakers, well the advice is the same I guess.
OT: Yes a critical reception that's in the mid 80's on Metacritic and Game Rankings is a critical success. It's time more people recognised this.
I wish the game all the sales success it can get.
5 years in the making, though with not such huge numbers of people as work on the blockbuster titles I hear, I'd say break even would be at between 750K-1 million, anything over that will be golden. If they sell 1.5 million a sequel will be likely, if they sell over 2 million then a sequel is certain.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
Jimi Hendrix
Didn't Remedy make a PC-version? Finished but shelved by MS.
With no sales of that, breaking even is even more expensive for Alan Wake.
In the wilderness we go alone with our new knowledge and strength.
|
Cueil said: |
so true !! but somehow alot of the online nerds seem to be disappointed and aren't those people the ones who are accountable for word of mouth ?
I mean it's the hardcore people who hang around online , who inform themselfs about games and who know whats going on! aren't those the people who pass the good news to the "casual"-gamers ?
I don't understand why remedy comments on those 7 bad reviews. they are just pushing those 7 bad reviews to the center of peoples notice, because people tend to only want to hear about the bad stuff!
also I don't think they break even but M$ will pay them money for another adventure in the woods
| elticker said: I am gonna buy it :) and that makes it a comercail success. though i have to admit some remedy fans are buying 2 copies of alan wake one standard and LCE or three and thats dedication :). I am 100% sure this game is gonna be a commercail success but the question is to what level of commercail success it is. it neds to sell less than a mil to break even. estimated cost of creating it is from 15-30 mil. causeon the alan wake forum it say 7 mil before microsoft signed the deal so it will break even with less than a mil and this game is gaurnted to sell more than a mil so its on what level of comercail success if i had to guess LTD i would say anywhere from 1.5-4 mill |
No. 1 million copies will not be enuff to break even.
If costs were $7 million before MS deal, then there's an additional 4 years of development costs.
Remedy team is 45 men. 45 x $100,000 = $4,5 million per year, but they outsourced some artwork so let's say $5,5 million in best case. In 4 years that's $22 million. Total budget is $29 million.
+ 10 million marketing = total cost $39 million minimum, and I am being nice here (Finland has a high cost of labor + small team has more fixed costs which raises the $100k man year average, plus $10 mill is kids stuff in marketing of an exclusive who even got it's own little live mini-series).
For each copy sold revenue $30 in best case => 39 mill / $30 = 1.3 million copies to break even (not including bundled copies or Platinum releases)
they should have released a demo!
still day one for me
Official Member of the Xbox 360 Squad
Slimebeast said:
No. 1 million copies will not be enuff to break even. If costs were $7 million before MS deal, then there's an additional 4 years of development costs. Remedy team is 45 men. 45 x $100,000 = $4,5 million per year, but they outsourced some artwork so let's say $5,5 million in best case. In 4 years that's $22 million. Total budget is $29 million. + 10 million marketing = total cost $39 million minimum, and I am being nice here (Finland has a high cost of labor + small team has more fixed costs which raises the $100k man year average, plus $10 mill is kids stuff in marketing of an exclusive who even got it's own little live mini-series). For each copy sold revenue $30 in best case => 39 mill / $30 = 1.3 million copies to break even (not including bundled copies or Platinum releases) |
acctually each copy is 48. 36 to publisher/developer, 12 for console royalities since microsoft is publisher they wont pay themselves pay console royalities. That means if it sells 1 mil it getts about 48 mill. besides there isnt a marketing campaign for alan wkae nto as far as i heard. There may be a small one with a 2 or 3 mil but nothing with a 10 mil marketing campaign as far as i know.
| CGI-Quality said: Of course a "critical" success is good. It just needs to be a commercial success now, which it should be able to pull off. |
True. Critical doesn't mean commercial but I think it'll be a commercial success too.
If not we can say it got itself a "cult following"
| libellule said: for the sales success I m mixed the pre-orders are still low. The sales will depend on how people react to the review As I have said before, AW is a new IP and like Bioshock at his time, it will need very high praising review to make people think : "this is a must have experience, I buy it" Also, AW is not a FPS, it is a shooter with a not so badass hero ... It is good for me, but is it good for the average Xbox360 owners ? |
Because 360 owners will only buy a fps with a muscle bound baddass hero.
We really need a roll-eyes gif on this forum.
elticker said:
acctually each copy is 48. 36 to publisher/developer, 12 for console royalities since microsoft is publisher they wont pay themselves pay console royalities. That means if it sells 1 mil it getts about 48 mill. besides there isnt a marketing campaign for alan wkae nto as far as i heard. There may be a small one with a 2 or 3 mil but nothing with a 10 mil marketing campaign as far as i know. |
GameStop and small retailers pay $48 for new copies of the first shipment, yes. But Walmark and others buy them for less. And second shipment is cheaper for everybody. So before we even get to talk about the effect from Platinum releases ($15-20 revenue) and bundled copies ($0 in revenue), we're already down at $40 before Microsoft takes his share.
Also you have to subtract distribution, printing, packaging, transport and loss from broken & stolen goods from those $40 that the retail pays. So your're down on $35-37. But as soon as you start including GOTY and Platinum editions and bundled copies, that number is gonna fall dramatically.
Marketing is at least $10 mill. It works like that in business. No sane person would develop a game for $29 million and then only spend a fraction of that amount on marketing. $3 mill for marketing would only be 10% of the total budget.
A good rule of thumb is to take 30% of the development budget to get an estimated minimum marketing budget. 0.3 x $29 mill = $9 mill for Alan Wake
Sometimes the marketing budget is even higher than the dev budget (CoD, Halo).
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