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Forums - Sony - Sony's gonna have a easier time in 2008

Mummelmann on 28 November 2007

Sony needs to push the price down even more and start kissing ass in the industry like MS, buttering up with cash and whatnot, and they know it.
We'll see another price drop next year, probably quite early too, and MGS 4 and FFXIII bundles will get ripped off the shelves worldwide.
At this point, Sony knows they're gonna loose money on their hardware, it's all about install base now, and they're willing to go to great lengths to stay in the game I think.
With a bigger userbase, Sony can start covering losses with inhouse software (they have their hands in quite a lot of dev's affairs) and 2nd party titles.
I hope they turn things around and start selling like hotcakes like we're used too, but they need to make some sacrifices to get there!



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naznatips on 28 November 2007
PS-She said:
naznatips said:
 

1)  Again, your welcome to your opinion, but the facts are far from supporting that opinion. The Wii's American sales are currently outselling the PS3's combined worldwide sales by more than 100K. How can the PS3 possibly catch up to a console like that when even right after a major pricedrop and during the holidays it's not even within a competing sales range. In fact, it's not even close to a competing sales range. Meanwhile the Wii has yet to even drop the price to mass market level.

2)  For the record, mass market price has been proved time and again to be $200, not $250. The PS2 sold more than 80% of it's lifetime hardware at under $200. Can you imagine what will happen to the Wii if it's not even in mass market price range yet? Not to mention it sold out in much of the world for its entire first year with overall a crappy selection of software and very crappy 3rd party support. Yet, despite this, it's software sales have been very healthy and it had 10 million selling games within the first year (even if you don't count the pack-in sales of Wii Sports) compared to the PS3's 2 million selling games.

3)  I absolutely agree that the PS3 will do much much better next year. I think it will be in direct competition with the 360 because of its quality software and big games like MGS4 and Gran Turismo (FFXIII won't be till 09), but every single piece of available evidence points towards a stronger 2nd year for the Wii than its first. A much stronger 2nd year in fact. I understand completely that you don't want this to happen. Many people don't want the Wii to succede, but this is a game sales site, and numbers and statistics speak far louder than opinions here.


1 & 2)  The PS3 started so far above your market level that it isn't funny.  You claim that market level means so much yet ignore the obvious difference between a console that starts $400 above your market level and a console that starts $50 above your market level.  That's not a small difference.  If market level really means as much as you say it does, just imagine what will happen when the PS3 gets into that ballpark.

You say the Wii still sold well with crappy software and crappy 3rd party support yet some of the biggest name Nintendo titles have already been released-Mario, Zelda, and Metroid.  The Wii Sports packin also yielded good results for Nintendo.  The bottom line is that most of the rest of the Wii's lineup isn't so strong both in name or quality (sometimes both).  Even the worst playing PS3 game that controls like crap looks amazing.  The Wii can't even claim that.  It's only a matter of time until Nintendo runs out of Super Mario Galaxy and Brawl type games and quality PS3 titles overwhelm the market.

3)  The 360 will easily be crushed underfoot as developers like Insomniac and Naughty Dog show how to make the PS3 shine.  It will be those great games that make the PS3 worth owning rather than a slew of mediocre titles.

The PS3 will likely never drop below $200 before the release of the PS4.  Mass market price is an unachievable dream for the PS3, wheras the Wii can hit it at a moment's notice.  If sales ever drop, they have it as a readily available trump card.  Obviousy sales haven't even been close to dropping at this point.

 As far as the rest of the Wii's lineup, most of the sequels to the GC's best selling games have yet to be released.  Mario Kart DD and Super Smash Bros. Melee were the two best selling GC games and both of them are being released next year.  Pikmin, Animal Crossing, Mario Basebal, and Kirby all have games set for release next year as well.  Nintendo also has Wii Fit, Wii Music, Wii Chess, massive amounts of Wii Ware games, and Disaster: Day of Crisis as new IPs. That's not counting anything unannounced.

From third parties they have Tales of Symphonia: KoR, Baten Kaitos 3, Oboro Muramasa, Fragile, Okami,  Harvest Moon, Monster Hunter 3, King Story, FFCC:TCB, No More Heroes, Monster Lab, Wii Ware games like FFCC:TYKatPL, and more.

Now, I'm not trying to get into a pissing contest of comparing the lineup to the PS3, as I think the PS3 has an excellent lineup next year as well, but I do want to compare the Wii's library next year to the Wii's library this year.  Next year its library is much much stronger than it was this year both in 3rd party and 1st party release lists. 

I don't really understand why you think the Wii will "run out" of games.  What do you think the developers of Super Mario Galaxy did when they finished the game?  Start work on Wii Music?  Of course not, they are Nintendo strongest core game development studio. Nintendo only has 1 studio making the "Wii series" games out of their 20 some studios and subsidiaries.  The 20 some other studios are already working on their next big game.  Just as Retro said they started 2 new Wii projects after Metroid Prime 3 and Camelot is working on a Wii RPG.  Just as Aonuma and the Twilight Princess team are already hard at work on the first ground up Wii Zelda game as they said.  Nintendo isn't just going to stop making games for your convenience.  

The PS3 absolutely has an incredible lineup next year, and it's an amazing system that should have great sales next year in both software and hardware, but to think that the Wii is just going to die out and drop off at your whim is simply ignorant.  



Kasz216 on 28 November 2007
PS-She said:
naznatips said:
Mr_Immortal said:
naznatips said:
Mr_Immortal said:
famousringo said:
Wow, Mr_Immortal, it's like you're still stuck in 2006.

The Wii looks outdated now, but people are buying it anyway. Eye candy isn't everything.

And if you think price is the Holy Grail, just trust me when I say that there's no way that either competing console can beat the Wii at price limbo. It was making making money at release while competitors were flushing money down the toilet with every unit sold. Nintendo can drop the price whenever (if ever?) they need to stimulate demand.

It is nice to see that Sony is starting to move some serious units now. I'd still like to know how much of this activity is the 40GB model. It seemed to drive a lot of sales in Japan, perhaps because of the white colour, but the surges in EU and NA look to be more software driven. A lot of people who have been eying the PS3 seem to have decided that there are enough games to justify the purchase, now.

Yes the Wii does look outdated now, but so does the PS2 which is still selling rather strongly. But if you think the PS2 will sell as strongly in 08 you're sadly mistaken, same with the Wii. Also. regarding Nintendo lowering the price, the Wii will never be free. Logically if consumers (in future) have the choice between a $100-150 Wii or a $199 PS3 with a Blu-ray player/$199 360, they will choose the latter. I doubt the Wii will ever go below $100, at least not within the next few years.

Edit: I'm guessing mid-08 we'll see a real difference in Wii sales. Negative of course.

 


The PS2 is selling less than half as much as the Wii in worldwide numbers, and 1/5th the software. The PS2s life is obviously nearing a close based on software sales and lack of development of new titles, but the Wii's 3rd party support from this year looks like a joke compared to next year's lineup and it's selling more software than any other system, which points towards a healthy console, not one that's going to magically die in a year.


I never said the PS2 is selling as well as the Wii, I compared the fact that they're both outdated consoles that are doing well. Though I don't believe it will last. Yes, the Wii has a few decent titles, (Brawl comes to mind) but overall these titles can't compare to the big PS3/360 titles. I don't think it will magically die, though i'm expecting a gradual decrease in sales starting mid-08. And if there's another price cut for the PS3 and 360 before Christmas 08 (most probably there will be) that will just make things worse. IMO if Nintendo want to survive this entire generation, they'll have to release a Wii 2.


1)  Again, your welcome to your opinion, but the facts are far from supporting that opinion. The Wii's American sales are currently outselling the PS3's combined worldwide sales by more than 100K. How can the PS3 possibly catch up to a console like that when even right after a major pricedrop and during the holidays it's not even within a competing sales range. In fact, it's not even close to a competing sales range. Meanwhile the Wii has yet to even drop the price to mass market level.

2)  For the record, mass market price has been proved time and again to be $200, not $250. The PS2 sold more than 80% of it's lifetime hardware at under $200. Can you imagine what will happen to the Wii if it's not even in mass market price range yet? Not to mention it sold out in much of the world for its entire first year with overall a crappy selection of software and very crappy 3rd party support. Yet, despite this, it's software sales have been very healthy and it had 10 million selling games within the first year (even if you don't count the pack-in sales of Wii Sports) compared to the PS3's 2 million selling games.

3)  I absolutely agree that the PS3 will do much much better next year. I think it will be in direct competition with the 360 because of its quality software and big games like MGS4 and Gran Turismo (FFXIII won't be till 09), but every single piece of available evidence points towards a stronger 2nd year for the Wii than its first. A much stronger 2nd year in fact. I understand completely that you don't want this to happen. Many people don't want the Wii to succede, but this is a game sales site, and numbers and statistics speak far louder than opinions here.


1 & 2)  The PS3 started so far above your market level that it isn't funny.  You claim that market level means so much yet ignore the obvious difference between a console that starts $400 above your market level and a console that starts $50 above your market level.  That's not a small difference.  If market level really means as much as you say it does, just imagine what will happen when the PS3 gets into that ballpark.

The Mass Market will have already mostly been cleared by the Wii and 360.  Here's a quick lesson on pricing tiers and how it relates to consoles.

Unlike the people on this site.  The large majority of people will only buy 1 system.  These people, unless they are already predisposed to wanting a PS3 arn't going to wait for the PS3 to get to 200.  Once the Wii and 360 get to 200 they'll rapidly be clearing out this market.  So by the time the PS3 gets down to this level, a large portion of the "one console" consumers will be gone. 

Most of the only people left will be the people who wanted a PS3 anyway and weren't going to buy another system and people who own multiple systems.  You can't take the lead with the second group.... so since Sony is going to be last to 200 they've got to make sure the first group is big enough... which is tough, because the farther away it looks that it'll reach 200 the more some of these people might decide to get a 360 instead because they don't want to wait 2-3 years to play next gen games.

That's why it's hard for more expensive consoles to win unless you have a big advantage, and the cheaper consoles are looked down on.



Kasz216 on 28 November 2007

Either way, I don't get why anyone would say the PS3 is going to have a harder time this year. I mean, it's got better games then last year even if some do get put off till 09, not to mention last years games will still be out.

It's also cheaper then it used to be. It might or might not catch up to the 360 and Wii. But either way it's going to sell more consoles and software, and at the end of the day that's what really counts to sony.



PS-She on 28 November 2007
naznatips said:

The PS3 will likely never drop below $200 before the release of the PS4. Mass market price is an unachievable dream for the PS3, wheras the Wii can hit it at a moment's notice. If sales ever drop, they have it as a readily available trump card. Obviousy sales haven't even been close to dropping at this point.

As far as the rest of the Wii's lineup, most of the sequels to the GC's best selling games have yet to be released. Mario Kart DD and Super Smash Bros. Melee were the two best selling GC games and both of them are being released next year. Pikmin, Animal Crossing, Mario Basebal, and Kirby all have games set for release next year as well. Nintendo also has Wii Fit, Wii Music, Wii Chess, massive amounts of Wii Ware games, and Disaster: Day of Crisis as new IPs. That's not counting anything unannounced.

From third parties they have Tales of Symphonia: KoR, Baten Kaitos 3, Oboro Muramasa, Fragile, Okami, Harvest Moon, Monster Hunter 3, King Story, FFCC:TCB, No More Heroes, Monster Lab, Wii Ware games like FFCC:TYKatPL, and more.

Now, I'm not trying to get into a pissing contest of comparing the lineup to the PS3, as I think the PS3 has an excellent lineup next year as well, but I do want to compare the Wii's library next year to the Wii's library this year. Next year its library is much much stronger than it was this year both in 3rd party and 1st party release lists.

I don't really understand why you think the Wii will "run out" of games. What do you think the developers of Super Mario Galaxy did when they finished the game? Start work on Wii Music? Of course not, they are Nintendo strongest core game development studio. Nintendo only has 1 studio making the "Wii series" games out of their 20 some studios and subsidiaries. The 20 some other studios are already working on their next big game. Just as Retro said they started 2 new Wii projects after Metroid Prime 3 and Camelot is working on a Wii RPG. Just as Aonuma and the Twilight Princess team are already hard at work on the first ground up Wii Zelda game as they said. Nintendo isn't just going to stop making games for your convenience.

The PS3 absolutely has an incredible lineup next year, and it's an amazing system that should have great sales next year in both software and hardware, but to think that the Wii is just going to die out and drop off at your whim is simply ignorant.


I didn't say the Wii was going to up and die.  I said it was running out of its high-end titles.  Mario Kart Wii and Brawl are the only two left.  You said it yourself that those two sold the most on the gamecube.

As for the rest of my thinking, go ask the Gamecube Kirby game why I think the way I do.  



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PS-She on 28 November 2007
Kasz216 said:

The Mass Market will have already mostly been cleared by the Wii and 360. Here's a quick lesson on pricing tiers and how it relates to consoles.

Unlike the people on this site. The large majority of people will only buy 1 system. These people, unless they are already predisposed to wanting a PS3 arn't going to wait for the PS3 to get to 200. Once the Wii and 360 get to 200 they'll rapidly be clearing out this market. So by the time the PS3 gets down to this level, a large portion of the "one console" consumers will be gone.

Most of the only people left will be the people who wanted a PS3 anyway and weren't going to buy another system and people who own multiple systems. You can't take the lead with the second group.... so since Sony is going to be last to 200 they've got to make sure the first group is big enough... which is tough, because the farther away it looks that it'll reach 200 the more some of these people might decide to get a 360 instead because they don't want to wait 2-3 years to play next gen games.

That's why it's hard for more expensive consoles to win unless you have a big advantage, and the cheaper consoles are looked down on.


The mass market has yet to be cleared out.  The Wii is too much of a "Buy as well" console and 360s are dying every day.  People are going to want a real console capable of delivering a great gaming experience that doesn't require being sent back to the manufacturer every 3 months.  Plus you have to consider just how large the gaming market is and how small a portion of it has been touched so far.  If even a fraction of the PS2's sales represent "the mass market" there is still a long way to go.  The race is far from over.

As for having a big advantage the PS3 has plenty of them.  It now has a SKU cheaper than the most costly 360 SKU IIRC along with free online play, BluRay capabilities, and a library of games that becomes more awesome each passing month.



jjseth on 28 November 2007

@ Naznatips,

I think that the mass market pricing at



 


Get your Portable ID!

 

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ssj12 on 28 November 2007

http://ps3.ign.com/index/release.html

from this release date list, thanks to IGN, 2008 doesn't seem like it will be that bad.



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naznatips on 28 November 2007

The Gamecube Kirby game sold more than a million copies. Whether you think it's quality or not is a moot point in a sales discussion. It still outsold all but 2 PS3 games. Mario Party 8 got pretty crappy reviews too, but it's sold almost 1 million units more than the best selling PS3 games. So, again, we can talk about quality all you want, but from a sales perspective, the Wii's lineup next year is even stronger.

I also noticed you completely ignored my point that the developers won't stop making games after they release their big titles. I guess that wasn't convenient to your way of thinking. If Nintendo runs out of new high end titles, all they do is make more. Nintendo has many more studios this generation than they did last generation, and more second parties than ever. Of course they'll have more games.



naznatips on 28 November 2007
jjseth said:
@ Naznatips,

I think that the mass market pricing at <$200 isn't the target price point any longer in this day and age. In the past few years people don't even bat an eye when dropping $250-300 on a iPod or $500-600 on a iPhone. I think that people will justify higher prices and understand that it's not going to be under $200 anytime soon and the bigger point for them will be the games for when they want to jump on a certain consoles ship.

Right now Sony isn't that far off of MS's price point and could afford to drop the price along with them, if not before MS does their next price cut. With Sony reducing manufacturing costs at a breakneck pace (like any top of the line electronics and especially processor) by improving the process and moving to a smaller size 45 or 65nm compared to the 90nm, costs will drop considerably even from current costs.

I think that the target price point for consoles will be anything under or around $250-300 and that will be when you see sales truly take off. I'd expect sometime in the first 6 months of 2008 for Sony to drop the price of the 40gb at least another $50. When it comes to ceilings for the target of mass market, that has increased as wages go up, people work longer, get raises, get promoted, etc and can afford to spend more then they could even 3 years ago.

I disagree.  Look at the PSP.  It started at $200 and sold poorly, wheras the DS starting at $150 sold very well.  Once the PSP dropped to $170 its sales increased signifficantly.  Once the DS dropped to $130 it's sales nearly doubled.  Mass Market price is far from $300, and $250 is only on the top edge of it because of a pack in game.  The further you get below $200, the more sales increase by an exponential amount.