I'm not really wanting to argue with you Source, but this very site was coming up with many different ways of how Sony wouldn't meet the 13 million FY 2010 estimate from Sony. But they did meet that estimate.

Granted looking at the demand vs. supply constraints I think Sony didn't believe they could pull it off, but the fact is, they did.

It's possible, but still it depends on how well the PS3 does in the holiday season. I think that it will be close, but will not make it to 50 million.

I never understand the arguement of "you were wrong before so that you are likely to be wrong this time as well". Were you never wrong before? You asked for a real discussion and TheSource offered his opinion as well as the reasoning. What he didn't do is to agree with you.

Also, I'm not sure why PS3 meets Sony's projected shipment last year is related to the prediction for this thread. Does shipping 13 mil units last FY guarantee Sony will ship 16 mil+ this FY?

Not likely imo, I think the 360 will take too many sales away from it when they price cut at xmas.

I'm not saying that just because the majority of this site was wrong before about PS3 sales estimates, that it makes it a guarantee they will be wrong this time too.

What I am saying is that it is possible they will be wrong again. Move and GT5 have the potential to counter the price drop and Move has the potential to counter the Slim launch. 2010's holiday season could resemble 2009's holiday season.

Ah balls, misread the thingy, yeah that's demand per week not month. /Headdesk

But still averaging 1.2M per month - 300k per week ALL year, would still put Sony at 13.2M whereas 16M is needed. They will have to unearth some serious sales to get that additional 3M boost. 47M is my personal prediction.

I think if Sony forecast is 16 million sales for next yr than its a 90% chance that they will hit the target and if the Sony forecast 13 - 14million PS3 for next fiscal yr than its a 90% chance that it wont hit 50million before March 2011.

i think last yr also everyone after the Q1 said that Sony should have lowered PS3 forecast and bla bla bla... but they have done it well n probably they could have gone a bit higher too if they didnot have these supply issues.

First of all, I do not idolize Microsoft, if I could I would change many things about 360, but I am just giving you the list that you have asked for, second of all. I was just saying that there would be no reason for PS3 to have such high sales(16m), because my opinion differs to yours and I have provide the facts as to why I think PS3 won't have as much sales considering the fact that unless there is another price cut planned for this year, more customers will purchase a cheaper alternative - 360.

As I was saying, the main reasons for the PS3 MAJOR success last year were:

*Price cuts, large price cut in UK

*Release of Slimmer model which caused discontinuation of older models, therefore affected the prices of the old models as stock was cleared.

*Lineup has somewhat affected the not yet decided people.

And PS has a MUCH larger fanbase, after all, PS1 and PS2 did shift around 250-300M consoles in their lifetime.

At the same time, it's possible they might turn out to be right this time and you might be wrong if Move and GT5 did not live up to the potential that you expect. That's why I'm not sure why you have to bring up the past prediction failute.

I'm fully aware that I could be wrong, but there's not a shred of doubt that GT5 will at least be the 2nd highest selling in the franchise.

I'm expecting worldwide bundles that last up to 6 months after the introduction of the bundle. I see 120gb PS3 being phased out at $249.99 sometime this holiday.
The Move will also have a 250gb PS3 bundle that will also have a game packed in for $349.99.