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Forums - Sales - When will Wii outsell PS2?

 

When will Wii outsell PS2?

2010 1 0.26%
 
2011 8 2.08%
 
2012 37 9.61%
 
2013 57 14.81%
 
2014 55 14.29%
 
Never 227 58.96%
 
Total:385
Ail on 06 April 2010
jarrod said:
Ail said:

The one small argument I would have to refute this is that the Wii price cut seems to be loosing steam and not have as big an effect as price cut usually have.

Q1 2010 sales are the same as Q1 2009 at a 50$ lower price point..

Some will argue sales would have been higher were it not for stock issues. But don't forget that in January 2009 Wii had stock issues in the US too....( and please don't bring up the software line up, we're talking Animal Crossing and Wii Music vs NSMBWii, so 2010 obviously has the better software..)

Wii's out of stock perpetually in the west.  And production is confirmed lower than where we were a year ago... frankly I'm at a bit of loss as to what you're trying to get at exactly?

The one region with no supply constraints (Japan) has Wii selling 50% more this Q1, almost doubling the current weekly baseline with an arguably worse new release schedule.  This is "loosing steam"?

Last I checked Wii had no supply issue in Europe, so your definition of the West must mean North America.

Q1 2009 = Q1 2010 sales for europe...

 



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

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jarrod on 06 April 2010
Ail said:
jarrod said:
Ail said:
jarrod said:
rossoner said:
from what planet some of u came?
U really believe wii ll continue to sell 20 millions per year for next 4,5 years?
BY then ps4 and xbox720 ll be out ,and wii2 100%.

wii2 is coming in next 2 years im 100% sure,and there is no chance wii ll have same sales momentum in 2012 or 2013.

No, but it doesn't need to sell 20m for 5 more years.  If it did that, it'd probably double PS2 sales in the end.

I also doubt Wii maintains it's current sales past Wii 2 launch (which may be as soon as Q4 2011 imo, at least for Japan), but I also don't see it dying off immediately and entirely like the Sonycorps are praying for.  Truthfully, it's a crapshoot.  Wii's going to definitely sell more than 20m this year, but past that we don't really know.  What we do know though is that it won't be wound down like N64 or GameCube...

 

One of the reason the PS2 kept doing to well after the PS3 release was two folds :

- The PS3 was a lot more expensive than the PS2

- After a while the PS3 sold didnt play PS2 games...

 

Both of those are unlikely to happen with the Wii successor, I doubt it will come out at 4 times the price of the Wii and I doubt it won't play Wii games.

Both mean that the switch from the Wii to its successor will be faster...( and if especially Nintendo keeps its habbit of making a profit on console sales, they have no reason to keep old Wii on the markets as Sony had to do to compensate for the PS3 loss and it's difficulties in grabbing marketshares...)

 

Finally the Wii is still mostly defined by its first party software, do you really think that once its successor is out Nintendo will be able to keep developing for both machines ?

3 years after the PS3 release for example, there were still third party PS2 titles in the weekly Japan top 10, that's not going to happen for the Wii ( at least not with third party titles)...

PS1 sold 30% of it's total after PS2 launch, GBA sold 25% of it's total after DS launch, and neither of those platforms enjoyed the benefits you're talking about with PS2 vs PS3 really either.  Of course, I've also always maintained that Wii's wind down would be more comparable to GBA or even PS1 than to PS2.

Also, I've already shown Nintendo dropping support for their widely successful platforms post-successor launch isn't really historically supported or accurate, with GBA being the most recent, and arguably most relevant example.  I sort doubt Wii will be the first here.   And what PS2 games were still selling huge in November 2009 (ie: 3 years after PS3 launch) and later?  The notion of strong 3rd party support for PS2 years after PS3 launch is itself a bit of a misinterpretation... I mean we got some niche JRPGs from Atlus and NIS, and GOW2 pretty quick, but not really all that much else notable?  3rd party support for PS2 from Nov 2006 on looks worse than 3rd party Wii support from Nov 2006 on to be frank...

 

Actually when the PS2 released Sony was selling PS2 at a loss, PS1 at a profit, so they had every interest in keeping the PS1 alive as long as possible...

The situation is different too in the fact that as the PS1 and PS2 gen got older those machines kept increasing their marketshare so those machines became the defacto machines to purchase if you wanted a cheap old gen console as the next generation started.

 

The Wii has however stopped gaining marketshare for now over 1 year and nothing tells us that Sony or Microsoft will drop the ball on this gen when the next gen starts...

Again, trying to tie marketshare to longevity also has little basis in fact.  Again, see GBA vs DS.  The most crucial determining factor for longevity is absolute, not relative, market performance.  Retail and consumers have the ultimate say here.  And so far, they've decide to make Wii the best selling games platform in history.

What you need to propose for that to change is actual market change... and at the moment, we don't have any clear indication of that.  



Ail on 06 April 2010
jarrod said:
Ail said:
jarrod said:
Ail said:
jarrod said:
rossoner said:
from what planet some of u came?
U really believe wii ll continue to sell 20 millions per year for next 4,5 years?
BY then ps4 and xbox720 ll be out ,and wii2 100%.

wii2 is coming in next 2 years im 100% sure,and there is no chance wii ll have same sales momentum in 2012 or 2013.

No, but it doesn't need to sell 20m for 5 more years.  If it did that, it'd probably double PS2 sales in the end.

I also doubt Wii maintains it's current sales past Wii 2 launch (which may be as soon as Q4 2011 imo, at least for Japan), but I also don't see it dying off immediately and entirely like the Sonycorps are praying for.  Truthfully, it's a crapshoot.  Wii's going to definitely sell more than 20m this year, but past that we don't really know.  What we do know though is that it won't be wound down like N64 or GameCube...

 

One of the reason the PS2 kept doing to well after the PS3 release was two folds :

- The PS3 was a lot more expensive than the PS2

- After a while the PS3 sold didnt play PS2 games...

 

Both of those are unlikely to happen with the Wii successor, I doubt it will come out at 4 times the price of the Wii and I doubt it won't play Wii games.

Both mean that the switch from the Wii to its successor will be faster...( and if especially Nintendo keeps its habbit of making a profit on console sales, they have no reason to keep old Wii on the markets as Sony had to do to compensate for the PS3 loss and it's difficulties in grabbing marketshares...)

 

Finally the Wii is still mostly defined by its first party software, do you really think that once its successor is out Nintendo will be able to keep developing for both machines ?

3 years after the PS3 release for example, there were still third party PS2 titles in the weekly Japan top 10, that's not going to happen for the Wii ( at least not with third party titles)...

PS1 sold 30% of it's total after PS2 launch, GBA sold 25% of it's total after DS launch, and neither of those platforms enjoyed the benefits you're talking about with PS2 vs PS3 really either.  Of course, I've also always maintained that Wii's wind down would be more comparable to GBA or even PS1 than to PS2.

Also, I've already shown Nintendo dropping support for their widely successful platforms post-successor launch isn't really historically supported or accurate, with GBA being the most recent, and arguably most relevant example.  I sort doubt Wii will be the first here.   And what PS2 games were still selling huge in November 2009 (ie: 3 years after PS3 launch) and later?  The notion of strong 3rd party support for PS2 years after PS3 launch is itself a bit of a misinterpretation... I mean we got some niche JRPGs from Atlus and NIS, and GOW2 pretty quick, but not really all that much else notable?  3rd party support for PS2 from Nov 2006 on looks worse than 3rd party Wii support from Nov 2006 on to be frank...

 

Actually when the PS2 released Sony was selling PS2 at a loss, PS1 at a profit, so they had every interest in keeping the PS1 alive as long as possible...

The situation is different too in the fact that as the PS1 and PS2 gen got older those machines kept increasing their marketshare so those machines became the defacto machines to purchase if you wanted a cheap old gen console as the next generation started.

 

The Wii has however stopped gaining marketshare for now over 1 year and nothing tells us that Sony or Microsoft will drop the ball on this gen when the next gen starts...

Again, trying to tie marketshare to longevity also has little basis in fact.  Again, see GBA vs DS.  The most crucial determining factor for longevity is absolute, not relative, market performance.  Retail and consumers have the ultimate say here.  And so far, they've decide to make Wii the best selling games platform in history.

What you need to propose for that to change is actual market change... and at the moment, we don't have any clear indication of that.  

 

Ok if you don't want to talk marketshare, lets talk business...

What's in it for Nintedo to keep pushing the Wii once its successor comes out....( console market really doesn't behave like handhelds, the console market actually has fierce fights for marketshare every gen whereas handhelds has been dominated by Nintendo for a long time..)

 



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

jarrod on 06 April 2010
Ail said:
jarrod said:
Ail said:

The one small argument I would have to refute this is that the Wii price cut seems to be loosing steam and not have as big an effect as price cut usually have.

Q1 2010 sales are the same as Q1 2009 at a 50$ lower price point..

Some will argue sales would have been higher were it not for stock issues. But don't forget that in January 2009 Wii had stock issues in the US too....( and please don't bring up the software line up, we're talking Animal Crossing and Wii Music vs NSMBWii, so 2010 obviously has the better software..)

Wii's out of stock perpetually in the west.  And production is confirmed lower than where we were a year ago... frankly I'm at a bit of loss as to what you're trying to get at exactly?

The one region with no supply constraints (Japan) has Wii selling 50% more this Q1, almost doubling the current weekly baseline with an arguably worse new release schedule.  This is "loosing steam"?

Last I checked Wii had no supply issue in Europe, so your definition of the West must mean North America.

Q1 2009 = Q1 2010 sales for europe...

 

Check again.  We've had scattered reports on UK shortages for Wii (and PS3 actually).  Not as severe as America, but supply hasn't been consistently meeting demand, unlike Japan.



jarrod on 06 April 2010
Ail said:
jarrod said:
Ail said:
jarrod said:
Ail said:
jarrod said:
rossoner said:
from what planet some of u came?
U really believe wii ll continue to sell 20 millions per year for next 4,5 years?
BY then ps4 and xbox720 ll be out ,and wii2 100%.

wii2 is coming in next 2 years im 100% sure,and there is no chance wii ll have same sales momentum in 2012 or 2013.

No, but it doesn't need to sell 20m for 5 more years.  If it did that, it'd probably double PS2 sales in the end.

I also doubt Wii maintains it's current sales past Wii 2 launch (which may be as soon as Q4 2011 imo, at least for Japan), but I also don't see it dying off immediately and entirely like the Sonycorps are praying for.  Truthfully, it's a crapshoot.  Wii's going to definitely sell more than 20m this year, but past that we don't really know.  What we do know though is that it won't be wound down like N64 or GameCube...

 

One of the reason the PS2 kept doing to well after the PS3 release was two folds :

- The PS3 was a lot more expensive than the PS2

- After a while the PS3 sold didnt play PS2 games...

 

Both of those are unlikely to happen with the Wii successor, I doubt it will come out at 4 times the price of the Wii and I doubt it won't play Wii games.

Both mean that the switch from the Wii to its successor will be faster...( and if especially Nintendo keeps its habbit of making a profit on console sales, they have no reason to keep old Wii on the markets as Sony had to do to compensate for the PS3 loss and it's difficulties in grabbing marketshares...)

 

Finally the Wii is still mostly defined by its first party software, do you really think that once its successor is out Nintendo will be able to keep developing for both machines ?

3 years after the PS3 release for example, there were still third party PS2 titles in the weekly Japan top 10, that's not going to happen for the Wii ( at least not with third party titles)...

PS1 sold 30% of it's total after PS2 launch, GBA sold 25% of it's total after DS launch, and neither of those platforms enjoyed the benefits you're talking about with PS2 vs PS3 really either.  Of course, I've also always maintained that Wii's wind down would be more comparable to GBA or even PS1 than to PS2.

Also, I've already shown Nintendo dropping support for their widely successful platforms post-successor launch isn't really historically supported or accurate, with GBA being the most recent, and arguably most relevant example.  I sort doubt Wii will be the first here.   And what PS2 games were still selling huge in November 2009 (ie: 3 years after PS3 launch) and later?  The notion of strong 3rd party support for PS2 years after PS3 launch is itself a bit of a misinterpretation... I mean we got some niche JRPGs from Atlus and NIS, and GOW2 pretty quick, but not really all that much else notable?  3rd party support for PS2 from Nov 2006 on looks worse than 3rd party Wii support from Nov 2006 on to be frank...

 

Actually when the PS2 released Sony was selling PS2 at a loss, PS1 at a profit, so they had every interest in keeping the PS1 alive as long as possible...

The situation is different too in the fact that as the PS1 and PS2 gen got older those machines kept increasing their marketshare so those machines became the defacto machines to purchase if you wanted a cheap old gen console as the next generation started.

 

The Wii has however stopped gaining marketshare for now over 1 year and nothing tells us that Sony or Microsoft will drop the ball on this gen when the next gen starts...

Again, trying to tie marketshare to longevity also has little basis in fact.  Again, see GBA vs DS.  The most crucial determining factor for longevity is absolute, not relative, market performance.  Retail and consumers have the ultimate say here.  And so far, they've decide to make Wii the best selling games platform in history.

What you need to propose for that to change is actual market change... and at the moment, we don't have any clear indication of that.  

 

Ok if you don't want to talk marketshare, lets talk business...

What's in it for Nintedo to keep pushing the Wii once its successor comes out....

 

Margins.  They'll still likely make more on hardware, and software R&D costs are lower.  Plus with the 3DS specs there's now the possibility for multiplatform Wii/3DS R&D for the next 2 years or so (something Sony and others took advantage of on PS2/PSP during the transition cycle).

What's in it for Nintendo to just immediately kill of the most successful console in history exactly?



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Ail on 06 April 2010
jarrod said:
Ail said:
jarrod said:
Ail said:
jarrod said:
Ail said:
jarrod said:
rossoner said:
from what planet some of u came?
U really believe wii ll continue to sell 20 millions per year for next 4,5 years?
BY then ps4 and xbox720 ll be out ,and wii2 100%.

wii2 is coming in next 2 years im 100% sure,and there is no chance wii ll have same sales momentum in 2012 or 2013.

No, but it doesn't need to sell 20m for 5 more years.  If it did that, it'd probably double PS2 sales in the end.

I also doubt Wii maintains it's current sales past Wii 2 launch (which may be as soon as Q4 2011 imo, at least for Japan), but I also don't see it dying off immediately and entirely like the Sonycorps are praying for.  Truthfully, it's a crapshoot.  Wii's going to definitely sell more than 20m this year, but past that we don't really know.  What we do know though is that it won't be wound down like N64 or GameCube...

 

One of the reason the PS2 kept doing to well after the PS3 release was two folds :

- The PS3 was a lot more expensive than the PS2

- After a while the PS3 sold didnt play PS2 games...

 

Both of those are unlikely to happen with the Wii successor, I doubt it will come out at 4 times the price of the Wii and I doubt it won't play Wii games.

Both mean that the switch from the Wii to its successor will be faster...( and if especially Nintendo keeps its habbit of making a profit on console sales, they have no reason to keep old Wii on the markets as Sony had to do to compensate for the PS3 loss and it's difficulties in grabbing marketshares...)

 

Finally the Wii is still mostly defined by its first party software, do you really think that once its successor is out Nintendo will be able to keep developing for both machines ?

3 years after the PS3 release for example, there were still third party PS2 titles in the weekly Japan top 10, that's not going to happen for the Wii ( at least not with third party titles)...

PS1 sold 30% of it's total after PS2 launch, GBA sold 25% of it's total after DS launch, and neither of those platforms enjoyed the benefits you're talking about with PS2 vs PS3 really either.  Of course, I've also always maintained that Wii's wind down would be more comparable to GBA or even PS1 than to PS2.

Also, I've already shown Nintendo dropping support for their widely successful platforms post-successor launch isn't really historically supported or accurate, with GBA being the most recent, and arguably most relevant example.  I sort doubt Wii will be the first here.   And what PS2 games were still selling huge in November 2009 (ie: 3 years after PS3 launch) and later?  The notion of strong 3rd party support for PS2 years after PS3 launch is itself a bit of a misinterpretation... I mean we got some niche JRPGs from Atlus and NIS, and GOW2 pretty quick, but not really all that much else notable?  3rd party support for PS2 from Nov 2006 on looks worse than 3rd party Wii support from Nov 2006 on to be frank...

 

Actually when the PS2 released Sony was selling PS2 at a loss, PS1 at a profit, so they had every interest in keeping the PS1 alive as long as possible...

The situation is different too in the fact that as the PS1 and PS2 gen got older those machines kept increasing their marketshare so those machines became the defacto machines to purchase if you wanted a cheap old gen console as the next generation started.

 

The Wii has however stopped gaining marketshare for now over 1 year and nothing tells us that Sony or Microsoft will drop the ball on this gen when the next gen starts...

Again, trying to tie marketshare to longevity also has little basis in fact.  Again, see GBA vs DS.  The most crucial determining factor for longevity is absolute, not relative, market performance.  Retail and consumers have the ultimate say here.  And so far, they've decide to make Wii the best selling games platform in history.

What you need to propose for that to change is actual market change... and at the moment, we don't have any clear indication of that.  

 

Ok if you don't want to talk marketshare, lets talk business...

What's in it for Nintedo to keep pushing the Wii once its successor comes out....

 

Margins.  They'll still likely make more on hardware, and software R&D costs are lower.  Plus with the 3DS specs there's now the possibility for multiplatform Wii/3DS R&D for the next 2 years or so (something Sony and others took advantage of on PS2/PSP during the transition cycle).

What's in it for Nintendo to just immediately kill of the most successful console in history exactly?

Margins are lower on old gen games than on new gen as the average price per game ( and as a resulting the licencing profit) goes down as a gen gets older...( maybe development costs offset this but only for first party games, for third party, the lower the price of a game, the lower Nintendo's cut..)

As for the hardware, Nintendo typically does a good job selling new hardware at a profit...



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

jarrod on 06 April 2010
Ail said:

Margins are lower on old gen games than on new gen as the average price per game ( and as a resulting the licencing profit) goes down as a gen gets older...( maybe development costs offset this but only for first party games, for third party, the lower the price of a game, the lower Nintendo's cut..)

As for the hardware, Nintendo typically does a good job selling new hardware at a profit...

You also forget, software ASPs dropping are something Nintendo's actively (and arguably successfully) combated this generation.  I don't think you can really apply the notion of cheapo late gen PS1/PS2 games to Wii.  Plus it's not like GBA ASPs suddenly dropped $10 in 2005/2006/2007.

And again, I'll ask what significant benefit does it give to Nintendo to cut Wii off at the knees?



Netyaroze on 06 April 2010

I voted never first I think there will be a wii 2 in 2012-2013 and wii relies on the first party software after wii 2 released it will slow down significantly also 20 Million+ every year wont happen it will slow down peak is already over and I think that this year will be sales wise worse for the wii then last year. Also PS2 still sells 4 Million consoles per year it sold already over 140 million and it will continue to sell and probably end with 150 Million sold units I cant see wii topping PS2 its a weak leader the market is divided I dont think it can top PS2. PS1 definetly but PS2 unlikely.



jeffrey9999 on 06 April 2010

it will outsell the ps2 its just a matter of time and were only 3years and almost 5months into wiis life and its almost at the halfway point of ps2 and 3rd party support is just getting better and that will help maintain what its doing now then price cuts and new bundles and colors and possibly dvdcd playback and so much more and as far as wii turning over sooner then the hdconsoles isn't going to happen thats just fanboy wishful thinking and xbox360 can't sell as much as wii at the same price and the graphics are better so that theory is being proved wrong everyday and ps3 is only 107$ more so I think at best ps3 can only tie wii at the same price give or take a few k so thats why i think wii can go as long as ps2 easily and ytd wii vs. ps2 is a much bigger difference then 5million......... Im thinking 20



Wonktonodi on 06 April 2010

I'm thinking that Nintendo will not so much kill the Wii with the next console as they will just try hard to push the next console they launch. They will still have software for a few years and sell some but I'm sure that if they launch the next system at an affordable price and capable of playing wii games that itself would cut into wii sales but at an increase of their next systems sales which will matter more to them at that point.