jarrod said:
Ail said:
jarrod said:
Ail said:
jarrod said:
rossoner said:
from what planet some of u came?
U really believe wii ll continue to sell 20 millions per year for next 4,5 years?
BY then ps4 and xbox720 ll be out ,and wii2 100%.
wii2 is coming in next 2 years im 100% sure,and there is no chance wii ll have same sales momentum in 2012 or 2013. |
No, but it doesn't need to sell 20m for 5 more years. If it did that, it'd probably double PS2 sales in the end.
I also doubt Wii maintains it's current sales past Wii 2 launch (which may be as soon as Q4 2011 imo, at least for Japan), but I also don't see it dying off immediately and entirely like the Sonycorps are praying for. Truthfully, it's a crapshoot. Wii's going to definitely sell more than 20m this year, but past that we don't really know. What we do know though is that it won't be wound down like N64 or GameCube...
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One of the reason the PS2 kept doing to well after the PS3 release was two folds :
- The PS3 was a lot more expensive than the PS2
- After a while the PS3 sold didnt play PS2 games...
Both of those are unlikely to happen with the Wii successor, I doubt it will come out at 4 times the price of the Wii and I doubt it won't play Wii games.
Both mean that the switch from the Wii to its successor will be faster...( and if especially Nintendo keeps its habbit of making a profit on console sales, they have no reason to keep old Wii on the markets as Sony had to do to compensate for the PS3 loss and it's difficulties in grabbing marketshares...)
Finally the Wii is still mostly defined by its first party software, do you really think that once its successor is out Nintendo will be able to keep developing for both machines ?
3 years after the PS3 release for example, there were still third party PS2 titles in the weekly Japan top 10, that's not going to happen for the Wii ( at least not with third party titles)...
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PS1 sold 30% of it's total after PS2 launch, GBA sold 25% of it's total after DS launch, and neither of those platforms enjoyed the benefits you're talking about with PS2 vs PS3 really either. Of course, I've also always maintained that Wii's wind down would be more comparable to GBA or even PS1 than to PS2.
Also, I've already shown Nintendo dropping support for their widely successful platforms post-successor launch isn't really historically supported or accurate, with GBA being the most recent, and arguably most relevant example. I sort doubt Wii will be the first here. And what PS2 games were still selling huge in November 2009 (ie: 3 years after PS3 launch) and later? The notion of strong 3rd party support for PS2 years after PS3 launch is itself a bit of a misinterpretation... I mean we got some niche JRPGs from Atlus and NIS, and GOW2 pretty quick, but not really all that much else notable? 3rd party support for PS2 from Nov 2006 on looks worse than 3rd party Wii support from Nov 2006 on to be frank...
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Actually when the PS2 released Sony was selling PS2 at a loss, PS1 at a profit, so they had every interest in keeping the PS1 alive as long as possible...
The situation is different too in the fact that as the PS1 and PS2 gen got older those machines kept increasing their marketshare so those machines became the defacto machines to purchase if you wanted a cheap old gen console as the next generation started.
The Wii has however stopped gaining marketshare for now over 1 year and nothing tells us that Sony or Microsoft will drop the ball on this gen when the next gen starts...
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Again, trying to tie marketshare to longevity also has little basis in fact. Again, see GBA vs DS. The most crucial determining factor for longevity is absolute, not relative, market performance. Retail and consumers have the ultimate say here. And so far, they've decide to make Wii the best selling games platform in history.
What you need to propose for that to change is actual market change... and at the moment, we don't have any clear indication of that.
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