You don't compare handheld to consoles

Ahh Leo - you are such good value :)

i) You ever heard of stockpiling? I don't think it will make 20m - but will get to around 18.5m. But who knows really how many units they can make, and how many they have stockpiled? This is Nintendo, who tend to be conservative with figures - 20m has a real chance.

ii) Somehow, I doubt you would be up for a bet related to that prediction. 

If they manage to sell 5-6m in the last 2 months of '07 (and its selling out instantly, everywhere) - not selling 10m in the entire of '08 seems extremely unlikely.

Hell - if they had the units, I think they could sell 10m in the US in '08 alone. 

And that's without the NEW games which will hit (including MH3, FF:CC, Tales, Brawl, MarioKart, Animal Crossing, Nintendogs, etc...).

I dont think the Wii will pass 60 million. I also think this is the Wii's last big holiday. Unless they drop the price to 120 or something.

 Thanx I always enjoy a good open discussion.

best case scenerio they could have is that the Wii follows the footsteps of the DS and thats not a bad thing.

One more note I'm gonna highlight about Wii sales and this 20 Million I insist on.

In 2006, Wii sold just under 4 million being out a month and a half. A Month and a Half and they sold just under 4 million by the ends of December 31, 2006.

Remember, they launched in the Americas on November 19th which aided in the rough month and a half.

BUT they didn't launch in Japan until December 2nd a day shy of a month.

AND they didn't launch in Europe until the dates of December 7th, 8th, & 9th making it about 2/3 of a month.

Yet with one region selling for about a month and a half and other regions selling for a rough month or two-thirds of a month and they nearly hit 4 million. They woulda HAD 4 million if not for that Wii Strap recall just to point that out. But they had damn near might as well say 4 million by the end of 2006 with a trial supply at launch to test the reception of the new idea.

THIS time the idea has proven itself and they KNOW it's hot. Do you REALLY think that if Reggie said they'll double supply for this holiday season and last holiday season they had 4 million in the channel and they have 14 million plus Wiis sold NOW that they can't make 20 Million by the end of 2007 knowing how hot ticket an item the system is? This time with sales running constantly through the holiday season instead of half months and partial months like last year?

They didn't fully know last year. They KNOW this year.

4 Million was in the channel for 2006. Reggie said they'll double it. That's 8 Million. They have 14 Million on the way to 15 Million sold NOW. 14 + 8 = 22. I said 20 Million. That would be 22 Million.

And you STILL doubt my prediction? Hohohohohohohohohoho!

Like I said just wait and see. I live for these moments.

John Lucas 

Well John (hey! :>), the other thing is that they forecast... 18-19m for the fiscal year, right?

So that would take their total at the end of March to around 23m.

I imagine they will sell 4-5m in Q1 '07 - leaving them at around 18m-19m by Jan 1st '08.

...

But they could upp their forecasts, and end up with another 1-2m for the full fiscal year. So I don't think that 20m by '08 is impossible at all :) 

 So they sold 4 million in a month and a half ok but how long before the wii went on sale did nintendo manufacture it for. For instance if at the time they were able to produce 1 million wiis a month and they started manufacturing them 3 months prior to release then 4 million isn't too difficult however now that demand has caught up to supply even if nintendo has upped its manufacturing it will be hard to reach 20 million by years end.

I 'd say 18 million is more of a reasonable figure considering that they have sold approximately 14 million consoles now and with 6 weeks to go they would have to sell on average 1 million wiis per week which I think is unlikely. We may see it crack 1 million for a week or 2 but I doubt that they can average that during a 6 week period.

I agree the Wii has fallen from it's pedestal at the moment in Japan, but the point of my posts in the other thread is that it is currently at entirely normal sales for November (assuming you think the PS2 was normal, which it wasn't) the PS2 continued to go from around 30k p/week in November, jumping up early December to a peak in early January, then going back to 50k p/week ish for Spring/Summer and falling back to 30k in Autumn.....The Wii is doing exatly that at the moment following the success of the PS2....which made 22 million in 6 years (plus some more this last year)

Leo i have a feeling that you don't really believe anything you say yourself, in the knowedge of Nintendoes always conservative estimates (23.84million before April) you say something like 30 million for the 9 months after that....If you were truly thinking the Wii will lose it's lustre during 08, then you would have made something a little more reasonable like 35M by end of 08, followed by a poor 09 (end of 09 -45M) and then dying out after that....(end of gen 50M) that is something possible going by normal gaming rules.

I think you are trying to become the PS3 version of John, rather than properly believing in what you say.