MikeB said: @ Lost tears of Kain Heck look at mass effect. Enough voice overs to probably last all the ps3 games out combined, its so unreal all the choices. There have been extensive speech adventures on the Amiga stored on 3.5 inch diskettes, sounded like OK stereo sound but not 7.1 surround audio quality. The main issue with Mass Effect is its framerate. But this high budget first party exclusive pushes the XBox 360 to its limits. Buy it, it won't get much better (for the XBox 360) than this.

On a single disc, yes i believe you. BUt multiple discs are not a problem for games of mass effects caliber. ANy rpgs i have no problem with on multiple discs.

Heck games like AC i would be fine with putting on mult discs since its more of a linear storyline

Only games that shouldnt be are racers, sandbox, or shooters (unless they have a long story line)

@ koffieboon

Funny thing is I and quite a few excellent coders have stated the same ourselves well before any of them did. 8-) It's not just PR talk, it's actually quite possible to achieve. It's just a matter of time and effort and every step forwards you can take with you for future games, the potential is enormous.

@ Sqrl



Third parties have slowly started to tap into the Cell, not all of them yet. For Call of Duty 4, Assassin's Creed, DiRT, etc some performance was tapped and those games are about equal or a little bit better on the PS3. But as of yet nothing on the level of the latest exclusives R&C Future or Uncharted (~30%). Without using the Cell's SPEs PS3 games can still look good, take Genji 2 for example, visually the game looks good and runs solid, better than any of the XBox 360 launch titles looked visually.

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=37990

@ koffieboon

To quote myself with regard to the PS3 and Cell processor from a couple of years ago (July 2005):

"I understand that games developers may not be too fond of the idea of having to learn new ways to write their software"

"for software to really take full advantage of the new Cell technology, software needs to be optimized for using the specialized SPEs"

"Today single CPU solutions are dominant, thus multithreading isn't really that much of a benefit. Software developers who mainly write for single processor solutions don't like doing extra (time=money) work to get the most out of multithreading for other platforms."

So I was actually expecting a hurdle for developers. Please understand, much of what these developers state (both multiplatform and exclusive devs) I already expected to see way in the past. So I read their comments with entirely different eyes than people like you may be reading them.

It's easy to dismiss something you do not understand, but IMO in the end it does not matter, this progress will go on at a steady pace and cannot be reversed.

MikeB said: @ koffieboon About the Insomniac stuff, you should recognize it when PR talk hits you in the face as hard as those comments. Funny thing is I and quite a few excellent coders have stated the same ourselves well before any of them did. 8-) It's not just PR talk, it's actually quite possible to achieve. It's just and matter of time and effort and every step forwards you can take with you for future games, the potential is enormous. And your credible of course........... unbelievable. Its possible to acheive, but when? Right now 360 is outbeating ps3 in more performances then not. Again these are pro sony people talking, you can never prove anything by what they say. @ Sqrl Source? Third parties have slowly started to tap into the Cell, not all of them yet. For Call of Duty 4, Assassin's Creed, DiRT, etc some performance was tapped and those games are about equal or a little bit better on the PS3. But as of yet nothing on the level of the latest exclusives R&C Future or Uncharted (~30%). Without using the Cell's SPEs PS3 games can still look good, take Genji 2 for example, visually the game looks good and runs solid, better than any of the XBox 360 launch titles looked visually. AC is better on the 360 easily, take a look at comparision videos. Dirty came out later on ps3. COD 4 was mentioned that they had to put their BEST developers on the ps3 in order to achieve this, if they had put the BEST on both sides it would be equal. Half of the 360 launch titles were originally planned for game cube. Seriously your facts are completely off http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=37990

 

Don't you think that it was entirely pointless to use the Cell then. What's the point in putting in a chip that the majority of Developers are going to have trouble with. Why not just use something they are familiar with and won't cost you a fortune to develop/produce. It also won't drive your costs up and your price up. I'm really upset with Sony because I wanted a PS3 the be everything the PS2 was and more and now the 360 is looking just like the PS2 did last gen. I'm so confused as to why Sony had an excellent strategy that they completely threw out the window (and Billy G caught before it hit the ground) and decided to do something completely different.

Sony's plan for PS1 and PS2 was fail proof. Use a medium that is taking off/popular and launch before the competition. Use your headstart to get developers familiar with your hardware so they make their games on your system first. Make the tech good but try to keep costs from rocketing out of control. Have the system play games first, maybe a few extras after that. Woo the third parties.

Everytime I look at this strategy it makes me think of the Xbox 360.

Sony's failure prone plan for PS3/PSP. Use a completely new medium that launches with the console. Spend all kinds of time developing this new medium and supertech that will cost a bunch to produce but will give an advantage over the competition. Release late due to problems with your tech/medium. Release at a high cost for the same reasons. Lose devs to a less powerful, more off the shelf style system that seems to still work better than yours. Lose 3rd parties. Lose marketshare.

I don't understand why they changed their plans. The PS1 lasted for 10 years(I think) and it didn't have top of the line excellent hardware. The PS2 is going super strong on year 7 and it wasn't super revolutionary. Why does the PS3 need Cell and Blu Ray to last 10 years? Why couldnt it do it on similar tech to 360. Sony would be in a lot better place if their tech was similar to 360. Leave the "no technical limitations" bullshit to the guys making crysis.

MikeB said: @ shams BTW - so if the Wii & PS3 are "selling as you expect", what do you expect to happen next year and beyond? Lots of my past writings are available on the internet, want me to look them up for you? I also predicted in mid 2005 that it would be troublesome to get legacy engines onto the Cell's SPEs, so it's not all just rosey expectations neither. I expect the PS3 to continue to perform roughly on par with XBox 360 sales from the year before, until Killzone 2, Gran Turismo 5, Final Fantasy XIII and Metal Gear Solid 4 are all on the market (when that will be exactly may not even be known to the developers themselves, but my guess would be in time for Christmas 2008). XBox 360 sales in the US will reach saturation levels not being able to compensate for lost ground in Japan, Europe and the rest of the world, this also due to the PS3 becoming more popular in the States itself. The Wii hype will dry down quite a bit, though still preferred by many young kids and females, after 2008 I expect HDTV penetration and higher expectations to considerably hurt worldwide sales, somewhere in 2009 I think HD DVD will have lost the format war and the Slimline PS3 really starts to take off.

To be honest, you haven't actually said much here - its all pretty much "taken for granted".

With Prologue out at the start of this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see GT5 either at Xmas '08 or even '09. Final Fantasy won't be out until sometime in '09.

I have my doubts about the 360 as well - but in truth, so far its the only console that has over-performed based on my expectations for Xmas. All MS need to do is follow the same current pattern - rinse & repeat (something they know how to do!) - and it will be successful for years to come. And that pattern is:

 - keep reducing costs, and bringing the hardware price down

 - keep launching additional "premium" models, forcing all the hardcore gamers to continue upgrading (and they will!) 

 - keep throwing money at developers, and proving that 360 exclusives make more money than PS3 exclsuives (which is a FACT), or at the very least go cross-platform

 - keep driving one or two killer titles per year (Xmas '08 will have Gears of War II for the 360 - and god knows what else)

Personally, a 360 is far above a PS3 on my shopping list - and its primarily only the RRoD issues stopping me (plus time/money) at the moment. Its a fact that the 360 has a better software lineup than the PS3 - and this is a fact that may well stay true throughout the ENTIRE generation (regardless of what Sony launch).  Its not so much that PS3 games are bad - its that 360 has quantity, and definitely more hits.

...

Do you want to give some figures?

Here are my general predictions:

 - 360 sales will remain robust, and as the price continues to drop - sales will continue to expand in very promising ways (sales this year >> last year for instance)

 - PS3 sales will definitely pick up - but no where as fast as Sony would like. Sales will taper right off after the holidays, and even the launch of MGS won't drive sales the way Sony want (the game will definitely underperform, regardless of reviews/quality).

 - Wii sales will purely be restricted by manufacturing issues (i.e. demand will remain very high). If Nintendo can get levels of 2.5m/m being produced, we may see a price cut - which will lead to sell outs again. Sales will remain high post-Xmas, and in general (during the off period) the Wii will outsell PS3/360 by 3:1 - 4:1 (if not more).

...

Overall, nothing you have stated changes the REAL issues for Sony:

 - from a business/profit point of view, the PS3 is a NIGHTMARE. Its just really hard to put together a compelling business argument to develop a high-budget exclusive PS3 title.

 - they are currently 7m units behind the 360 - and this gap has grown, rather than shrunk recently. If this grows too much more, its going to look real bad for Sony - and be very, very difficult for them to pull the gap back.

 - forget about the Wii - its in another league completely. By the middle of next year, the install base will have such a disparity with the PS3/360 - it won't even be funny. If Nintendo want, it could basically remain in "sellout" status for another year - maybe two.

...

In '08, both the PS2 & PSP will really start to suffer - bringing more focus on the PS3. I'm not sure what Sony's goal with the PSP is - but I consider it a "dead" platform right now. Software is really struggling on it, and the last thing I would ever consider (again from a business standpoint) is opening a PSP exclusive studio! Or a PS2 one for that matter. The money is with the 360, Wii & DS at the moment.

Last week the "Playstation" brand only had 30% of the US software market (i.e. PS2 + PSP + PS3) - I'm not sure how you can argue that is a "good" thing. They may struggle to get 2 titles in the top#10 best selling US titles of the year - and they are likely to be cross-platform games - no exclusives will get near the list.

(a year ago, Playstation brand had 55%/40% of the US market over two similar weeks)

Ahahaha, DVD limits the size of COD4 making it a 6 hour campaign. Yet Uncharted and HS are both around the same length, despite how the developers are "free of technical limitations" thanks to Blueray.

With the cost of asset creation so much higher this gen, maybe developers are finding that they don't have enough time, money and manpower to make a 20 hour title with all the graphical bells and whistles, fancy surround sound, and online. Er, scratch that online part... UC and HS lack it, yet the DVD limited title has it with plenty of maps...

But hey, don't let common sense get in your way.

MikeB, since you think that the PS3 will outsell the 360 in this Christmas, please tell me from which week (approximately) you're expecting that to start happening.

 

NJ5 said: MikeB, since you think that the PS3 will outsell the 360 in this Christmas, please tell me from which week (approximately) you're expecting that to start happening.

PS3 already outselling x360 WORLDWIDE since last week, because x360 USA numbers are overrated. =)

Go, go PS3!

CrazzyMan said: NJ5 said: MikeB, since you think that the PS3 will outsell the 360 in this Christmas, please tell me from which week (approximately) you're expecting that to start happening.   PS3 already outselling x360 WORLDWIDE since last week, because x360 USA numbers are overrated. =) Go, go PS3!

Well, according to Media Create, the PS3's numbers are "overrated" too. See, I provided a source.

NJ5 - 1, CrazzyMan - 0