That was a pretty stupid reply.

Johnlucas is known for his crazy predictions, not crazy facts.

yep around summer,maybe fall it will pass 3 million

I'm gonna clarify something for the people incredulous about my end of 2008 Wii 60 million prediction.

The Wii is coming off of 10+ years of Nintendo in the passenger seat saleswise in consoles. Coming off of the Gamecube/N64 consoles performances which netted them worldwide about 35 million (N64) & 21 million (GC).

These two systems Gamecube & N64 following the trends of Nintendo's glory years of the NES/SNES (61 million/50 million). The market when Nintendo was undisputed king of consoles was roughly a 50 to 60 million market more or less. Well I mean this is the big numbers a competitor could pull in. Meaning top competitor reaches this echelon.

Sony with the PS1 & PS2 pushed the market up into the 100 million/120 million range. They doubled it like Niles Standish. Expanding market and good advertising & better influence in Europe helped this out. Not to mention Sony's infrastructure factorywise.

Before this NES the market was about a 30 million market & NES basically doubled that. Atari's world was the 30 million era.

I hear people say PS2 sold 10 million in its first year, right? Well no matter who's charts you abide by, this one or NPD or whoever, Wii is at 14 million NOW before the holiday period has fully kicked in. While people doubt it Nintendo will have 20 million sold by end of this year bare minimum. Too much money to pass up. Everybody's been wanting a Wii since last Christmas and with this thing being short in many regions the anticipation grows for the system every day. Each player who touches Wii Sports gets infected with the "Wii virus" so to speak.

I have personal evidence of this just the past few days. My uncle's companion came by the house & I showed her the Wii & Wii Sports. I let her play it. Now SHE wants a Wii & she never liked videogames before. EVER. Now she's hot for a Wii after playing a little Wii Tennis & Wii Boxing. All this does is build latent potential for buy-up. They are buyers in reserve just waiting for the stock to become plentiful. As soon as it shows up in the region where it's short it's snapped up like the UK recently.

So Nintendo still coming out of a NES/SNES factory production model with a 50/60 million production rate has to adjust to the new expansion which is hard to do for such a small company like themselves. We forget that despite Nintendo's skill in making money sizewise they are dwarfed by giants like Sony & Microsoft who can crank out big numbers at will with all their money & infrastructure especially Sony who is at heart & soul a consumer electronics company.

But Nintendo is adjusting. The expansion of NoA to San Francisco is part of it & their trek into Korea & China is more evidence. It's gonna take some time but the money is there so Nintendo will do its best to match. Will they ever satisfy demand? Not hardly. They may never master demand for most of the life of this system. It will always elude them and dumbfound them. But they will get better and more factories will produce to match the demand.

People rag on Nintendo's game sales not being as super strong as XBox 360's but they forget...Most people don't buy games unless they got a system to go with it. So as long as stock is not so readily available the games don't get picked up quite as strongly at first. But as supply increases so will game sales of old and new.

20 million in one year or rather 13 months on the market is unprecendented. 14 million is unprecedented. But they will have it. And the fact that nearly every Wii they made will be sold will force them to adjust their estimates higher. They adjust higher and demand stays crazy so they have to adjust even higher. They do it again and still no change so they go even higher. This is the flare out that happens after a system's first year on the market.

If PS2 sold 10 million in the first year but ended up with about 100 million in 5 years what does that tell you?

PS2 in 2000 = 10 million, PS2 in 2001 =22.5 million, PS2 in 2002 = 22.5 million, PS2 in 2003 = 22.5 million, PS2 in 2004 = 22.5 million.

And that's only if I flattened the rates year to year after the first year. It doesn't show the natural upward progression & flare out.

Wii is trending higher than PS2 in every possible way & big games are about to pack in back to back. 3rd party will kick in on 2008 silencing those who complain about 3rd party representation on Wii. Nintendo's games & others will make big sparks on the charts all of next year in every region. AND they will slowly tighten up their weakest market, the PALs most generically referred to as Europe & friends. How about when they tighten up Europe & PALs? More sales right?

Nintendo has to do a double adjustment all at once. They have to move from a NES/SNES production model to a PS1/PS2 production model and bypass that as they are doing that to create the new production model known as Wii which will once again double the market at the VERY least. And I don't really see just a doubling based on the design of the console. Tripling, Quadrupling & even Quintupling is what I really see. We will not believe Wii's ability to transform and expand the industry. 360's Scene It/Buzz thingy is already reflecting this. It's their attempt to bottle some of that Ocean Blue.

All the shifts and adjustments will result in an ultimate 60 million by 2008's end total worldwide. And we don't know if price cuts will come up or new colors. Some people are simply waiting for the Black Wii before buying the system.

2008 will busy as hell for Nintendo and they will struggle to build up their production models but they will do it. The company is about to grow to obscene levels business wise.

THAT'S why I say 60 Million by 2008's end so confidently. Wii Fit will be your first clue. Brawl will help too. but by no means will those tell the whole story for 2008.

John Lucas

Oh yeah, I'm still aboard for your prediction concerning this game. I'm counting on you to be right here! =P

Now that I actually bother thinking about it, 40M is the absolute minimum the Wii will be hitting by the end of 08. 50M is still very reasonable, and 60M is something that can happen if the thing with attracting new gamers really takes off.

How many of Jl's predictions have come true? The ones in his sig sugest he is 0 for 2.

I have nothing against people making predictions and it's up to them if they want to provide their reasoning and/or facts to back up their predictions.  But in this case he isn't making a prediction, he's saying that the RE5 team is making that game with the Wii in mind first.  I'm simply asking him for proof instead of just the usual bullshit that I keep seeing.

How can the Wii possibly hit 20 million this year? There are not enough in the wild to make it...

I think 17 - 18 mil is a fair estimate, but there are simply not enough Wii's in existence to reach that point.

Haha. Good match up.

The difference between the two is that in the past, John Lucas has made some absurd and outlandish predictions that have actually come true.

I don't think Kwaad has managed that yet.

Think about this Legend11. What was the purpose of releasing a very old game (which was made for the Gamecube so most Nintendo fans have already played it) on a system just giving it a new control setup?

What's the purpose of releasing this old game here & selling it for an automatically discounted price to compel pickup & sale?

What do the strong sales for a very old game tell Capcom, the company who put this together?

Do you not think it was a test of Wii's ability? Do you not think it was a test of Wii's ability to sell to the old audience under new control schemes? Do you not think an old game with Wii controls becoming a worldwide million seller does not ring a bell in Capcom's collective head?

They had no other reason to release this on Wii other than to give Wii a test. And Wii passed!

I guaranTEE you this is what compelled them to move Monster Hunter 3 to Wii EXCLUSIVELY. Not just multiplatform but EXCLUSIVELY. This is why they made Zack & Wiki. They believe in the Wii & are reversing their stance towards the system.

You won't believe me now as nobody believed me in 2005 when I basically predicted this entire generation (save for Sony's self-sabotage) or when I said Wii passes XBox 360 worldwide in July (disputable but I'll let it slide) or when I said 20 million year's end & slowly people began saying 20 million right along with me. Much like hardly nobody believed me when I predicted the console hierarchy way back in 2006 in all regions.

I expect it & welcome it. But don't be surprised if you hear a Capcom exec come out of the blue and announce RE5 for Wii or even more special RE5 for Wii EXCLUSIVELY.

Time will just have to tell. But your clue is the existence of a RE4 Wii Edition & its million-seller status.

John Lucas 

OK John, I read many of your posts and think hmmm... that could be possible, but RE5 Wii exclusive? That is delusional. I understand the argument that RE4 was a test and was successful, which will lead to a Wii exclusive RE game, absolutely. But it won't be RE5.

You do know that a trailer has already been released for RE5 on the Xbox360, right? Have you seen the trailer? While I believe that the Wii has a better graphical capacity than most people give it credit for, RE5 appears to push the limits of even the 360 or PS3. There is no way that they would scrap the piece of art they are making for a downgraded version, even if it would have 10x better controls, as RE4 showed. The graphics are just too good.

That being said, if you were to predict RE6 being Wii exclusive, or a Wii exclusive spinoff, I would buy that in a heartbeat. But RE5 as Wii exclusive is delusional, and I don't even think they will make a Wii version.

How about this theory.... RE4 was the Wii test. RE5 is the Xbox360/PS3 test. The winner will decide where RE6 goes.