All I can tell ya Kwaad is

Wii 1st year = Larval Stage

Wii 2nd Year = Pupa Stage (Transformation)

Wii 3rd Year = Butterfly's Maturity

XBox 360 had BETTER be selling strong in its second year or it would REALLY be bad.

2007 is the last year where anything will seem "close" between the competitors. Nintendomination begins in full within the year 2008. If you don't like seeing Nintendo riding high on the sales charts get out now 'cause it's about ta get freaky up in here Nintendo-wise in the Oh Eight.

Lots of people believe in this Wii Bubble theory. All I can tell ya is that bubble is made out of titanium. I'd like to see somebody try to pop it.

(boy this board's gonna be a mess next year. I better get ready for all the angst 'cause it's about to be coming in truckloads)

John Lucas

P.S.: We love ya Kwaad. Never change. 

johnlucas prediction+ Kwaad= Kwaad mega ultra angry flamy reaction

You are comparing the Wii's first year software sales to the 360's second year software sales in a country where there are more 360s sold to try and say the Wii is in trouble.  Then, you go on to use Mario (a game that sells with legs) to Halo (a game that sells first week and has short legs) to show the Wii is in trouble.  There is something truly special in this comparison Kwaad.

Let's start with Mario.   Mario 64 sold about 6.6 million lifetime in North America.  Halo 2 sold about the same.  Halo 3 is currently selling under Halo 2's NA sales at this point in it's life.   SMG blew away Mario 64's week 1 sales in NA.  Yet you have come to the brilliant conclusion that Super Mario Galaxy is a failure while Halo 3 is a booming success... for the record, both are booming successes at this point.  

Second, attach ratio means much less than profit and overall sales.  The 360 is a second year system that is experiencing massive losses.  The Wii is a first year system that's experiencing huge amounts of success and profit.  Now, let's break down all the things that affect profit.  We have two main factors.  Sales, and cost of development.  In your infinite wisdom you seem to have chosen to ignore the second factor here.  The cost of development for a 360 game is much more than a Wii game.  Therefore, the Wii game needs to sell much less to make money than the 360 game.  The cost of development for a PS3 game is even more than a 360 game.  A PS3 game has to sell much much more than a Wii or 360 game to make a profit.  

So, if we are looking at profit:  Nintendo makes a profit on hardware.  Nintendo makes a profit on software.  dozens of games have made profit on the Wii, despite it only being in its first year and software quality being questionable at best.  Dozens of games have made profit on the 360 because it's in its second year and has a lot of quality titles which have sold very well, but the system overall has been a huge dip in the red for Microsoft other than the very very very small profit they pulled in last quarter from massive Halo 3 sales.  

Ah but here is the fun part.  How many games do you think have made a profit on the PS3 Kwaad?  How much of anything has made a profit on the PS3?  It's okay for the Wii to have a lower attach rate because it has a higher userbase and cost/time of development is much lower, but how about the PS3?  The monstrous system which requires 2 years minimum to make a game and 3-4 years to make a good game (FFXIII).  The system that has the highest development costs of the 3 by far.  The system that still only has 2 million sellin games on it after a full year on the market.  Less than the Gamecube did.  Huge budget titles like Ratchet & Clank and Heavenly Sword and Lair are flopping.  Each of which probably costs more than double what it cost to make SMG and yet combined have sold less than half what SMG did in 2 weeks.

What system is really in trouble here Kwaad?

I mean come on, how many games in video history sold almost 3 million units during it's first week??? Isn't it expecting a little too much from a Mario game to do the same as a Halo game, that has been pumped commercialy by MS till the boundries of sanity???

= normal kwaad

Nintendo's top titles for Wii, in terms of sales importance are:

Wii Sports (could do 15 mill+)

Wii Play (12 million?)

Smash Brothers (8 million?)

Wii Fit (5 million?)

Mario Party (4 million)

Mario Kart  (3.5 million)

Super Mario Galaxy (3.2+ million, remains to be seen)

Wii Music (3+ million)

Zelda (3 million)

Animal Crossing (2-3 million)

Those are the ten titles that have a shot at 3+ million units sold worldwide (or already have cleared it).  The whole point of Wii from a business perspective is that traditional game sales are declining, as costs increase, and new control allows for new types of fun games, and can aid traditional gameplay.

In other words as traditional game play satisfies fewer and fewer people, then then new styles become the hardware drivers.  My take is if you've never gamed before and will never be too good at it, even as few as 6 games is enough for 5-8 years for the new audience.

Is this thread a joke?

And then Dallinor got scared...

You came in, said, "Nintendo is getting its clock cleaned by Microsoft for <insert poorly reasoned argument about attach rate>." 

You launched a mostly unfounded attack on Nintendo, who is kicking all kinds of ass this generation, while at the same time basically saying, "don't attack Sony, no matter how justified" because you don't want Sony's corpse to be desecrated.

Have fun going back to being rich now that you've discovered people aren't going to roll over and buy your poorly formed argument. 

As much as I hate to get into this argument...

A lot of you are saying that the Wii's first year software and 360's second year software should not be compared.

Well, that doesn't seem to a problem for hardware, as long as the Wii is winning.