i don't think hardware, online, HD, or 3rd pary support would be reasons the wii "fails". they're not reasons the wii is doing well to begin with, so i doubt they will be reasons for wii's "failure". the biggest concern is if devs never utilize the wiimote past the "demo" stage, by "devs" of course this includes nintendo itself. the 1st wave of wii motion sensitive games have been so far unsatisfactory, like TW07, SSX and Cooking Mama. the wiimote will risk becoming a gimmick if the trend continues, and that's what will truly reduce sales. so in a sense it has to do with 3rd party support though it's by consequence. for 2007, the best motion sensitive games are surely gonna come from nintendo itself. let's see just what you can do with the wiimote other than tennis, bowling and baseball.
the Wii is an epidemic.








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3/ Sony bring out (within the next 12 months) a *new* playstation 2 - with their own Wiimote. Pretty much certain this won't happen.
4/ A fatal flaw in the hardware, kills off 95% of Wii's / Wiimotes overnight (or a virus?).
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- HD / graphics *cannot* hurt the Wii. Its already accepted that it has WORSE graphics - this can only hurt the 360/PS3.
- 3rd party support can only (partially) hurt the Wii. Nintendo will always support it, and this is where most sales come from. If the Wii succeeds in the market, economics ensures that 3rd-party support will follow.
- online (or lack of) can't hurt it. Firstly we *know* its coming (and it does work) - so its just a matter of time. Secondly people have been going gaga over the Wii - without any significant online support (except for VC). Online can only be a bonus - not a negative (although it could shorten its lifetime).