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Forums - General Discussion - Mafia Round 15A - Game Thread - Vanilla Round

theRepublic on 23 March 2010

Never mind, I see the post where you state your suspicions of Dtewi.



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theRepublic on 23 March 2010
Vetteman94 said:
dtewi said:
I recommend the cop come foward if any scum was found.

OK, suspect time.

Nikells made a post about how suspect he was of everyone.

This would mean that the scum were afraid of that post or killed him due to being a newb OR wanted to throw us off by making us suspect whoever was suspicious after that post.

Hmph. Not much to go on. I would say it's either the most inexperienced or experienced members that are in the scum.

That is a really bad idea and I am surprised that you would think of it.  For one, we dont know if there is a doctor to protect him, and second even if he found scum the first night, he would probably die shortly after and leave us with nothing else to go on.  It would be nice if he layed low and got a few investigations in and brought them forward either tomorrow or the next day.  That way we would have possibly 2 confirmed townies we could trust, or even the possibility of a scum find in one of those nights. 

FoS dtewi

For already wanting the cop to come forward with only one investigation in

I find this a bit scummy.  You don't want the cop to role claim if he found scum?  The cop should not keep that to himself.  If he dies without saying he found scum, his role was worthless.  It would be like there was never a cop.



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Vetteman94 on 23 March 2010
theRepublic said:
Vetteman94 said:
dtewi said:
I recommend the cop come foward if any scum was found.

OK, suspect time.

Nikells made a post about how suspect he was of everyone.

This would mean that the scum were afraid of that post or killed him due to being a newb OR wanted to throw us off by making us suspect whoever was suspicious after that post.

Hmph. Not much to go on. I would say it's either the most inexperienced or experienced members that are in the scum.

That is a really bad idea and I am surprised that you would think of it.  For one, we dont know if there is a doctor to protect him, and second even if he found scum the first night, he would probably die shortly after and leave us with nothing else to go on.  It would be nice if he layed low and got a few investigations in and brought them forward either tomorrow or the next day.  That way we would have possibly 2 confirmed townies we could trust, or even the possibility of a scum find in one of those nights. 

FoS dtewi

For already wanting the cop to come forward with only one investigation in

I find this a bit scummy.  You don't want the cop to role claim if he found scum?  The cop should not keep that to himself.  If he dies without saying he found scum, his role was worthless.  It would be like there was never a cop.


One investigation does not help the town out, even if he found scum.  There is nothing that says this game will have a doctor,  we have to assume that we dont to be safe.   If he comes forward with one investigation, and dies the following night, we are in no better of shape then if we just luckily guessed a lynchee.   Getting multiple investigations in is what we need,  that way at least he can give us info on multiple people,  and it improves our chances of lynching the right person. 



Vetteman94 on 23 March 2010
theRepublic said:
That is certainly an interesting idea. However, I think there are too many unknowns in your plan for me to be comfortable with it.

I am leaning toward there being only two mafia, but in the off chance that there are three mafia, your plan would require a mafia lynch every single day. One mis-lynch would end the game with a loss. If there are two mafia, it would take two mis-lynches.

We also don't know if the cop's first investigation is still alive. If Nikells was investigated Night One, your plan is in trouble right out of the gate.

Let's say we go through with your plan. With two mafia, there is a 17% chance the cop is killed tonight. With three mafia, there is a 20% chance the cop is killed tonight. Assuming the cop's investigation from last night is still alive, with two mafia, there is a 33% chance one of the people investigated gets killed. With three mafia, a 40% chance. So the chance of your plan getting messed up if there are two mafia is 50%. With three mafia, a 60% chance. I don't like those odds.

You state that the cop getting killed tonight would not be a horrible situation. I disagree. With two mafia, we would only get two chances to lynch before the game would end. Without any investigations, that would be tough. A 29% chance of getting mafia on the first lynch, and a 40% chance on the second. With three mafia, one mis-lynch and the game is over. The odds of getting a mafia on that one chance would be 43%.

The investigated people being killed is less troublesome. One killed would leave five unknows. So a 40% or 60% chance of getting mafia depending on how many there are. Still my biggest concern with this part of the plan is the cop's first investigation. If it was Nikells, then I think your plan is a non-starter. But I DO NOT want the cop to step forward to tell us if it was or not.


2 small points

1. I know my plan had a few small holes,  all you are doing is going into detail of things I already touched on.

2. I state that the cop getting killed would be a small situation but not horrible,  the town has won plenty of games where the cop has died early on,  some even the first night.



theRepublic on 23 March 2010
Vetteman94 said:
theRepublic said:
Vetteman94 said:
dtewi said:
I recommend the cop come foward if any scum was found.

OK, suspect time.

Nikells made a post about how suspect he was of everyone.

This would mean that the scum were afraid of that post or killed him due to being a newb OR wanted to throw us off by making us suspect whoever was suspicious after that post.

Hmph. Not much to go on. I would say it's either the most inexperienced or experienced members that are in the scum.

That is a really bad idea and I am surprised that you would think of it.  For one, we dont know if there is a doctor to protect him, and second even if he found scum the first night, he would probably die shortly after and leave us with nothing else to go on.  It would be nice if he layed low and got a few investigations in and brought them forward either tomorrow or the next day.  That way we would have possibly 2 confirmed townies we could trust, or even the possibility of a scum find in one of those nights. 

FoS dtewi

For already wanting the cop to come forward with only one investigation in

I find this a bit scummy.  You don't want the cop to role claim if he found scum?  The cop should not keep that to himself.  If he dies without saying he found scum, his role was worthless.  It would be like there was never a cop.


One investigation does not help the town out, even if he found scum.  There is nothing that says this game will have a doctor,  we have to assume that we dont to be safe.   If he comes forward with one investigation, and dies the following night, we are in no better of shape then if we just luckily guessed a lynchee.   Getting multiple investigations in is what we need,  that way at least he can give us info on multiple people,  and it improves our chances of lynching the right person. 

One investigation does help the town.  One investigation could be the difference in the game.  What doesn't help us is the cop taking it to his grave.  Yes, we would be in the same shape with a lucky guess, but lucky guesses are rare, while a guilty investigation is a sure thing.

You say there is no reason to assume there is a doctor.  There is no reason to assume there is a cop either.



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insomniac17 on 23 March 2010
theRepublic said:
Vetteman94 said:


One investigation does not help the town out, even if he found scum.  There is nothing that says this game will have a doctor,  we have to assume that we dont to be safe.   If he comes forward with one investigation, and dies the following night, we are in no better of shape then if we just luckily guessed a lynchee.   Getting multiple investigations in is what we need,  that way at least he can give us info on multiple people,  and it improves our chances of lynching the right person. 

One investigation does help the town.  One investigation could be the difference in the game.  What doesn't help us is the cop taking it to his grave.  Yes, we would be in the same shape with a lucky guess, but lucky guesses are rare, while a guilty investigation is a sure thing.

You say there is no reason to assume there is a doctor.  There is no reason to assume there is a cop either.

To both of you:

zexen_lowe said:
  • There are no crazy sanities in this game.
  • The game is a Vanilla game, so it means all the people are either Townie, Cop, Doctor or Mafia

This is a vanilla game, so it's fairly safe to assume that there is one cop, one doctor, some mafia, and some townies.



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theRepublic on 23 March 2010
Vetteman94 said:

2 small points

1. I know my plan had a few small holes,  all you are doing is going into detail of things I already touched on.

2. I state that the cop getting killed would be a small situation but not horrible,  the town has won plenty of games where the cop has died early on,  some even the first night.

1.  I just want everyone to understand exactly what the downside of this plan is.

2.  Yes, but it makes it much harder.



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dtewi on 23 March 2010
Vetteman94 said:
dtewi said:
I recommend the cop come foward if any scum was found.

OK, suspect time.

Nikells made a post about how suspect he was of everyone.

This would mean that the scum were afraid of that post or killed him due to being a newb OR wanted to throw us off by making us suspect whoever was suspicious after that post.

Hmph. Not much to go on. I would say it's either the most inexperienced or experienced members that are in the scum.

That is a really bad idea and I am surprised that you would think of it.  For one, we dont know if there is a doctor to protect him, and second even if he found scum the first night, he would probably die shortly after and leave us with nothing else to go on.  It would be nice if he layed low and got a few investigations in and brought them forward either tomorrow or the next day.  That way we would have possibly 2 confirmed townies we could trust, or even the possibility of a scum find in one of those nights. 

FoS dtewi

For already wanting the cop to come forward with only one investigation in

You're surprised I would WANT the Cop to come foward and help us WIN? I also stated this is if any scum was found. But I do recommend he comes foward anyway for doctor protection. Honestly that's a very simple suggestion that would only benefit the town.

@Your "No Lynch Idea"

It's not that great. A cop should present any scum info IMMEDIATELY since the chance of him dying is too risky.

GodOfWar_3ever said:

 

Unvote : theRepublic

Vote : dtewi

DIE !

 

What the hell is this? You vote for me just because Vetteman brought that insignificant fact to our attention.

I think you're scum though.

FoS: Godofwar

Now, explain why you voted for me.



Kimi wa ne tashika ni ano toki watashi no soba ni ita

Itsudatte itsudatte itsudatte

Sugu yoko de waratteita

Nakushitemo torimodosu kimi wo

I will never leave you

Vetteman94 on 23 March 2010
theRepublic said:
Vetteman94 said:
theRepublic said:
Vetteman94 said:
dtewi said:
I recommend the cop come foward if any scum was found.

OK, suspect time.

Nikells made a post about how suspect he was of everyone.

This would mean that the scum were afraid of that post or killed him due to being a newb OR wanted to throw us off by making us suspect whoever was suspicious after that post.

Hmph. Not much to go on. I would say it's either the most inexperienced or experienced members that are in the scum.

That is a really bad idea and I am surprised that you would think of it.  For one, we dont know if there is a doctor to protect him, and second even if he found scum the first night, he would probably die shortly after and leave us with nothing else to go on.  It would be nice if he layed low and got a few investigations in and brought them forward either tomorrow or the next day.  That way we would have possibly 2 confirmed townies we could trust, or even the possibility of a scum find in one of those nights. 

FoS dtewi

For already wanting the cop to come forward with only one investigation in

I find this a bit scummy.  You don't want the cop to role claim if he found scum?  The cop should not keep that to himself.  If he dies without saying he found scum, his role was worthless.  It would be like there was never a cop.


One investigation does not help the town out, even if he found scum.  There is nothing that says this game will have a doctor,  we have to assume that we dont to be safe.   If he comes forward with one investigation, and dies the following night, we are in no better of shape then if we just luckily guessed a lynchee.   Getting multiple investigations in is what we need,  that way at least he can give us info on multiple people,  and it improves our chances of lynching the right person. 

One investigation does help the town.  One investigation could be the difference in the game.  What doesn't help us is the cop taking it to his grave.  Yes, we would be in the same shape with a lucky guess, but lucky guesses are rare, while a guilty investigation is a sure thing.

You say there is no reason to assume there is a doctor.  There is no reason to assume there is a cop either.

Technically yes, that is true,  but in ost games there is at the very least a cop to benefit the town.  Being a small game, that may be all we get.



theRepublic on 23 March 2010
insomniac17 said:
theRepublic said:
Vetteman94 said:

One investigation does not help the town out, even if he found scum.  There is nothing that says this game will have a doctor,  we have to assume that we dont to be safe.   If he comes forward with one investigation, and dies the following night, we are in no better of shape then if we just luckily guessed a lynchee.   Getting multiple investigations in is what we need,  that way at least he can give us info on multiple people,  and it improves our chances of lynching the right person. 

One investigation does help the town.  One investigation could be the difference in the game.  What doesn't help us is the cop taking it to his grave.  Yes, we would be in the same shape with a lucky guess, but lucky guesses are rare, while a guilty investigation is a sure thing.

You say there is no reason to assume there is a doctor.  There is no reason to assume there is a cop either.

To both of you:

zexen_lowe said:
  • There are no crazy sanities in this game.
  • The game is a Vanilla game, so it means all the people are either Townie, Cop, Doctor or Mafia

This is a vanilla game, so it's fairly safe to assume that there is one cop, one doctor, some mafia, and some townies.

Vanilla games can be played with only mafia and townies.  Or with a cop, or a doctor, or both.  Take a look at the C9 setup here.

Zexen's statement doesn't necessarily imply that each of those roles exist in this game (although like you, I think they do).  It means that no other roles exist.

I was just applying Vetteman's logic about the doctor to the cop.



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