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Vetteman94 on 23 March 2010
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theRepublic said:
That is certainly an interesting idea. However, I think there are too many unknowns in your plan for me to be comfortable with it.

I am leaning toward there being only two mafia, but in the off chance that there are three mafia, your plan would require a mafia lynch every single day. One mis-lynch would end the game with a loss. If there are two mafia, it would take two mis-lynches.

We also don't know if the cop's first investigation is still alive. If Nikells was investigated Night One, your plan is in trouble right out of the gate.

Let's say we go through with your plan. With two mafia, there is a 17% chance the cop is killed tonight. With three mafia, there is a 20% chance the cop is killed tonight. Assuming the cop's investigation from last night is still alive, with two mafia, there is a 33% chance one of the people investigated gets killed. With three mafia, a 40% chance. So the chance of your plan getting messed up if there are two mafia is 50%. With three mafia, a 60% chance. I don't like those odds.

You state that the cop getting killed tonight would not be a horrible situation. I disagree. With two mafia, we would only get two chances to lynch before the game would end. Without any investigations, that would be tough. A 29% chance of getting mafia on the first lynch, and a 40% chance on the second. With three mafia, one mis-lynch and the game is over. The odds of getting a mafia on that one chance would be 43%.

The investigated people being killed is less troublesome. One killed would leave five unknows. So a 40% or 60% chance of getting mafia depending on how many there are. Still my biggest concern with this part of the plan is the cop's first investigation. If it was Nikells, then I think your plan is a non-starter. But I DO NOT want the cop to step forward to tell us if it was or not.


2 small points

1. I know my plan had a few small holes,  all you are doing is going into detail of things I already touched on.

2. I state that the cop getting killed would be a small situation but not horrible,  the town has won plenty of games where the cop has died early on,  some even the first night.