By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - NPD: Analyst reaction (NPD not using Toys R US?)

CrashMan said:
Toys R Us is a HUGE Wii market , and DS for that matter, as well which only magnifies the problem.

On the topic of Toys R Us and Wii, and off topic of this thread, I preordered SMG at Toys R Us, got the commemorative coin, AND they gave away 15 dollar gift cards on launch day to people who preordered it. Needless to say I was very pleased.

Are you sure?  I got a $25 gift card.  You might have gotten more than you realize. 



Smash Bros: 2363-5325-6342 

Around the Network

TheBigFatJ said:

 And, as he pointed out when talking to the MS and Sony representatives, they are each more well represented at different stores than each other (MS = Best Buy, Sony = Walmart, Nintendo = TRU probably). 

Well if true that would explain why NPD undertracks the 360.  WalMart and TRU are major video game stores and if NPD doesn't track them but it does track Best Buy then guess which system would be overrepresented in their sample  (hint: it's not the PS3 or Wii).

 



and i should point out that NPD really is lazy. monopoly ain't good for nobody.

vive la VGChartz!

on a more serious note, i hope ioi can provide more details as to why he thinks NPD is undertracking 360. it's hard to believe how 360 can be selling this close to Wii levels for the entire month of October, as i see no indication of this, be it indicators from amazon or ebay auctions, or personal observations.





the Wii is an epidemic.

albionus said:

TheBigFatJ said:

And, as he pointed out when talking to the MS and Sony representatives, they are each more well represented at different stores than each other (MS = Best Buy, Sony = Walmart, Nintendo = TRU probably).

Well if true that would explain why NPD undertracks the 360. WalMart and TRU are major video game stores and if NPD doesn't track them but it does track Best Buy then guess which system would be overrepresented in their sample (hint: it's not the PS3 or Wii).

 


You mean they over-track the 360, correct?

Also, we're seeing a serious problem with gaming 'journalism'.  We all have seen that most gaming journalists shouldn't bother calling themselves journalists, but rather amateur bloggers.  Look at all of the "Sony says it sold 100k PS3s in one week" posts at places like Joystiq.  If you even bother to look at the article they're linking, and then look at the source that article links to, the original source has a poorly worded sentence that suggests Sony is, as they say, including more than one playstation product in that number.



TheBigFatJ said:
albionus said:

TheBigFatJ said:

And, as he pointed out when talking to the MS and Sony representatives, they are each more well represented at different stores than each other (MS = Best Buy, Sony = Walmart, Nintendo = TRU probably).

Well if true that would explain why NPD undertracks the 360. WalMart and TRU are major video game stores and if NPD doesn't track them but it does track Best Buy then guess which system would be overrepresented in their sample (hint: it's not the PS3 or Wii).

 


You mean they overtrack the 360, correct?


 yeah, that should be what he means.

but tracking is a complicated issue; NPD has been doing this for years and they have whatever algorithm they've been using.  nobody knows what kind of bias they have (store selection, locales, etc) or how they modify their formulas after say ToysRUs pulled out.  perhaps they have a guru on every tracking team that does the kind of work ioi does, and applies his own adjustment on data, who knows.

i don't think anybody on earth spends as much effort as ioi analyzing and pondering over data.  i hope more and more stores contribute to VGChartz.

 

 



the Wii is an epidemic.

Around the Network

So more doubt is cast on NPD numbers, all the naysayers of VGchartz are being silenced



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

FishyJoe said:

Some very interesting comments from the analysts. For some reason Toys R Us is no longer being used for data.

Pachter has always been pretty bullish on the PS3, but there are cracks starting to show. LOL @ Pachter calling out Sony for their fudging the numbers.

It's also interesting that Evan Wilson thinks that Wii, DS and PS2 software are being under tracked.

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6183028.html


Earlier this week, industry analysts preemptively awarded the October software sales crown to Activision, thanks in no small part to its rhythm-rocking franchise Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock. That insight proved to be lucent, as evidenced by industry-tracking group NPD's October sales figures, which it released yesterday. However, while Activision's revenues were up 414 percent compared to the same time last year, the industry on the whole performed well below their expectations.

Today, several analysts weighed in on the discrepancy. Analysts agreed across the board that one of the primary contributing factors to October not living up to their expectations was the significant drop in software sales for the PlayStation 2, which were down 29 percent year over year. However, Pacific Crest Securities analyst Evan Wilson sees a logical explanation behind this drop. "This month, NPD did not receive data from Toys R Us for the first time," he noted. "It appears that mass-market titles on the Wii, DS, and PS2 are underrepresented in the data."

Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter believes another contributing factor to lower-than-expected software sales was a preponderance of bundled games for the Xbox 360 and PlayStation Portable. "In the aggregate, these bundles represented over 600,000 units of games that were purchased by consumers and which were not counted in the NPD software numbers for the month because the software was included 'inside the box' as part of the bundle," he said.

"Ratchet & Clank Future sold only 74,500 units in October, well below an already low market expectation of 129,000 units," said simExchange analyst Jesse Divnich. In comparison, Insomniac's PS3 launch title Resistance: Fall of Man sold nearly 71,000 last November, with lifetime-to-date sales at nearly 700,000, according to NPD.

Divnich believes that continued lackluster performances from PS3-exclusive titles are having a negative impact on hardware sales for the Japanese giant. As such, Divnich believes a lot is riding on Naughty Dog's Uncharted: Drake's Fortune. "Sony does have one last chance to prove itself in 2007 with its first-party titles with Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, which the prediction market expects 286,000 units sold in December." Uncharted officially ships out November 19, though some retailers appear to already be stocking the anticipated action adventure.

Pachter, on the other hand, believes that PS3 sales, while "still tracking below our expectations," are in for a strong holiday season riding the recent price drop of the 80GB SKU to $499 and the introduction of the $399 40GB model.

However, Pachter did raise an eyebrow at Sony CEO Howard Stringer's recent ballyhoo over the PS3's uptick in sales. "We are somewhat perplexed by Sony's recent announcement that sales accelerated to 75,000 to 100,000 per week after the price cuts (announced October 18) as it appears that sales increased by a smaller amount," said Pachter. Speaking to financial news service Bloomberg, a Sony representative clarified Stringer's statement, saying the 100,000 figure included PS2 and PS3 sales.

Addressing the Wii's reemergence atop the console leaderboard, Pachter sees October's hardware figures as affirmation that Nintendo has ramped up production of its hot-commodity console. "From January through June, Wii supply averaged 78,000 units per week, and from July through September, the supply increased to 102,000 units per week," he said. "It appears that Nintendo has managed both its production capacity and the allocation of units to the U.S. market so as to allow for a regular increase, and we expect further increases over the next two months."

 


Several comments from this:

 

1.  Michael Pachter and this Evan Wilson guy are financial research analysts, not market research analysts, so they are hardly experts on just what the best figure of software or hardware sales for the games companies are.  They probably just used the NPD's numbers in keeping Sony honest.

 

2.  Sony's honesty is in serious doubt at the moment, but then again, just about every company starts to have a similar lack of honesty when they are losing, because they have to spin 2X's as much just to keep afloat.

 

3.  The misrepresentation of the sales by NPD had nothing to do with any decision by the NPD as far as I know, but came from

a.  Toys R Us not reporting info "for the first time" which might not be an ongoing thing, or even a flub up by the Toys R Us people

b.  All of the bundling going on.

 

For, FJ, even though you say that the NPD might not be all ecompassing, which I personallly agree with, you have to agree that the NPD is still the best out there for tracking sales of games.



Thanks to kenobi after I got him to ban my old account (dallas) after someone hacked into it and being ok with me coming back under a slightly different username.  I appreciate our communication in the PMs.  Also I want to give a big thank you to vgchartz for being one of the cooler websites around. 

Oh, and I'm still the next Michael Pachter

How on Earth does the NPD expect to be accurate when they don't include what are probably the two biggest "casual" retailers in TRU and WalMart?




Or check out my new webcomic: http://selfcentent.com/

FishyJoe said:
Analysts have no code of ethics. They will say or do anything that advances their own agenda. And there is no system in place like Morningstar or S&P that will provide comprehensive ratings.

Again, that is because Morningstar and S&P are FINANCIAL "ratings" firms, not market research oriented.



Thanks to kenobi after I got him to ban my old account (dallas) after someone hacked into it and being ok with me coming back under a slightly different username.  I appreciate our communication in the PMs.  Also I want to give a big thank you to vgchartz for being one of the cooler websites around. 

Oh, and I'm still the next Michael Pachter

rocketpig said:
How on Earth does the NPD expect to be accurate when they don't include what are probably the two biggest "casual" retailers in TRU and WalMart?
  

i wonder what happened with NPD and TRU.  maybe TRU management looked at the data and was like "hey guys, there's such a huge disconnect with NPD data and our internal data maybe we should just forget about paying NPD money for such useless shit."

 



the Wii is an epidemic.